One of the many reasons that I was hyped up about this season of Bellator was that it was full of very legit, top level MMA prospects. Among these young lions was the creme de la creme of wrestling royalty, Ben Askren.

With the way that we’ve seen wrestlers dominate MMA over the last few years, it was only logical to assume that Askren was on a quick path to big bucks and bright lights. He was an Olympian who also happened to have won two NCAA titles. Not bad.

All he needed was a good MMA camp and he should have been dominant inside five fights, right?

Wrong. He chose to join up with Lion’s Den, Scottsdale. No disrespect to any of the men who belong to that camp, but I was hoping for a camp that would push all the OTHER parts of his game. I wanted American Top Team to team him BJJ, or Greg Jackson to show him how mixing striking and wrestling can make you a bajillion dollars. Instead, he chose a camp which is near his job, coaching the Arizona State wrestling team.

So, what we wound up with was a wrestler parading as an MMA fighter. In his two fights against Ryan Thomas in Bellator, Askren has not shown any advancement in his game. Last night was particularly atrocious, as he could not hold a basic BJJ position, the full mount. He set up too high every single time and was consistently shucked off by Thomas. As a matter of fact, Askren couldn’t hold ANY position. The fight was so bad, that when the announcer said that Askren has his purple belt, Jason came with the following gem:

“I don’t know who gave him his purple belt, but they need to take it away. Now.”

Then, the announcer said something else that was interesting. Askren is still planning on competing on an international stage in wrestling. Well, now he may be onto something. I don’t care who you are. If you want to be a legit, UFC level MMA fighter, you need to be focused on MMA. The fact that he is still attempting to wrestle means that less time is going into his striking and his BJJ and more time goes into wearing a singlet.

For a guy who needs to do a Josh Koscheck and forget his wrestling for a while, this is the WORST thing for Askren’s MMA development. If he wants to wrestle, than fine, but don’t expect him to become anything special in an MMA sense without more commitment.

We admittedly didn’t see the fights live last night. So, now, as I sit down with my Sunday morning coffee, let’s take a not-so-live look at what happened.

“King Mo” Lawal d. Gegard Mousasi

• Late in round one, when Mousasi partially landed a head kick and a knee, I thought that Mo was done. He did a good job clinching to recover.
• Mo’s wrestling game was amazing. Despite looking tired in round two, he still landed a high percentage of his shots.
• Johnson, Renallo, Shamrock Complaint #1 – Stop telling us that it’s okay to strike from the bottom. It’s not.
• Gus calls a triangle an armbar. We’ll let it slide.
• Instead of going for Mo’s back at the end of round two, I would rather have seen Gegard throw bombs against the cage. Mo was exhausted and Mousasi might have been able to finish right there.
• At a certain point, Mousasi’s insistence on the Triangle became silly. He should have been looking to stand back up and strike. He was getting the better of every exchange. Bad coaching.
• Side Note: EA MMA lost a ton of ground in my mind. The game looks…stiff. or Sloppy. I can’t decided which. Still a long time before it’s released.
• At the beginning of round four, Mousasi looked GASSED. He didn’t even try to defend the first takedown of the round.
• Did Shamrock just that Mousasi should be forcing Mo to wrestle!?
• Both of these guys need to improve their cardio.
• Mousasi’s illegal upkick was just a formality. It was already over. With King Mo’s victory, I’m curious to see who Strikeforce gets to fight both of these guys next. Remember, Mousasi just re-signed a two year deal with Strikeforce. I bet you he wishes he hadn’t done that now so he could jump to the UFC.
• 3SS Final Score – 49-45 “King Mo” Lawal

Gilbert Melendez v. Shinya Aoki

• Frank Shamrock NCIS plug, baby!
• Things that I never understood: How can you be the number two lightweight in the world if your striking is this bad?
• Pretty much the only offense that Aoki generated was an armbar attempt which Melendez defended and pushed Aoki against the cage.
• Why would Aoki circle the perimeter of the cage? He knew Melendez, as a wrestler, would want to push him against it and limit his movement.
• The broadcast team is surprised that Diaz was on time for his training sessions with Melendez. Always good when your commentators make fun of the work ethic of one of your champions.
• I give Melendez credit. Aoki basically did a Thales Leites in this fight, and rather than just stand there like Anderson Silva did, Melendez went to the ground and STILL beat Aoki. While it might not be smart, it certainly was honorable.
• 3SS Final Score – 50-45 for Melendez. We are vindicated. Aoki shouldn’t be anywhere near the top of the division.

Henderson v. Shields

• Anyone who suggested that Jake Shields would outwrestle Dan Henderson, please stand up. No one? Bueller?
• I remain shocked how much time Jake Shields spent in the mount position during this fight. He simply was dominant positionally.
• I wish I had more to say, but I don’t. Henderson looks tired, he looks old, and somewhere Dana is smiling.
• 3SS Final Score – 49-46 for Shields.

The Post-Fight Brawl

• Let’s bring everyone up to speed.
  
• Let’s just suspend everyone. This was disgusting. Mayhem jumped in and did something dumb in trying to steal Shields’ spotlight, but the reaction of the Cesar Gracie camp was gross. That didn’t need to happen. If I’m Jake Shields, I am going to take a long hard look at my camp and decided if I want to be associated with these people.
• Perhaps worse than anything else, UFC lightweight Nate Diaz tweeted a picture of the brawl as if he was proud of the beatdown. Someone tell these guys to start living in reality.

Phil Davis (5-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (9-0)

The Fighters: Phil Davis is one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects. Davis was a decorated wrestler at Penn State. He was a 4 time All-American with a career 116-20 record, including a 26-1 senior year where he won an individual title. In his UFC debut, Davis showed off those wrestling skills as he worked over Brian Stann over three rounds.

When the UFC signed Gustafsson the Internet was ablaze with excitement. Doing some digging on Youtube I found an awful lot to like about the 22 year old, Sweedish kick-boxer. His frame, 6’5, gives him a a reach advantage over most fighters. His power is obvious, in his UFC debut a straight took down Hamman, and his hand speed (think Mike Swick) might be unrivaled at 205. Gustafsson is 9-0 but hasn’t fought anyone of note and it’s unclear if his wrestling/jiu-jitsu game is any good.

Breakdown: A classic striker/wrestler match up. Gustafasson certainly has a chance to KO Davis. He has very fast, accurate and powerful strikes and we certainly haven’t seen Davis’s chin tested yet. However, I can’t imagine this fight staying on the feet for very long. Davis had his way with Brian Stann and I see this fight going the same way. In terms of MMA ability, Davis is very raw, think King ‘Mo, but his wrestling credentials will give him the ability to win a decision over fighters with much more MMA experience.

Prediction: Davis Via Unanimous Decision.

Paul Taylor (10-5-1) vs. John Gunderson (22-7)

The Fighters: Taylor is another exciting British fighter who always seems to have exciting fights.  Three of Taylor’s seven UFC fights have won fight of the night, of course he’s also lost all three of those fights.  Moving down to lightweight for the first time in his career Taylor, 3-4 in the UFC, desperately needs a win to avoid the cut happy UFC brass.

John Gunderson is 0-1 in the UFC having lost his debut to Rafellio Olivera at UFC 108.

Breakdown: Gunderson is a wrestler who likes top control.  However, much like Mark Bocek, his wrestling isn’t good enough to consistently earn him the position.  Taylor’s takedown defense isn’t stellar but it should be enough to stop Gunderson at least some of the time.  While the fight is on the feet Taylor should hold a big advantage as Gunderson might serve as nothing more then a punching bag.  The loser of this fight is most likely going to be exiting stage left and something tells me it won’t be Paul Taylor.

Prediction:  Paul Taylor via KO Round 2

Nick Osipczak (5-0) vs. Rick Story (9-3)

The Fighters: A fight that easily could have been on the main card.  With both these fighters on impressive win streaks we could see the winner of this fight taking a big step up in competition next.

Osipczak lost to Damarques Johnson during the Ultimate Fighter in what Dana White called one of the best fights in the history of the show.  Osipczak rebounded by beating Frank Lester then upsetting Matt Riddle.  In the Riddle fight Osipczak showcased his great jiu-jitsu game and was able to naturalize Riddle’s wrestling.  Along with his jiu-jitsu Osipzack has solid take down defense as well as a solid striking game (Osipczack has a background in San Shou.)

A lot of people think Rick Story is the next big thing.  A college wrestler with a big strong frame Story 2-1 in the UFC and has rebounded since losing his debut to the highly touted John Hathaway.  Saying Story is strong might be an understatement and to go along with his wrestling prowess Story has solid submissions and a striking game that’s at least good enough.

Breakdown: A very tough fight to call.  Osipczak will have an advantage while he can keep the fight standing, I’m just not sure how long he can.  However, we have seen that you can take advantage of Story in scrambles as shown in the John Hatahway fight.  I’m in the minority here but I was incredibly impressed by how dominant Osipczak’s ground game was against Matt Riddle.  Watch him transition from position to position reminded me a lot of Paulo Filho or George Sotiropoulous.  While this fight can go either way I like Osipczak to upset another big strong wrestler.

Prediction: Osipczak Via Inverted Triangle Choke Round 3

DaMarques Johnson (10-7) vs. Brad Blackburn (15-10-1)

The Fighters: DaMarques Johnson was the runner up of TUF: UK vs US.  Johnson rebounded by defeating Edgar Garcia at UFC 107.  Showing off his well rounded skill set Johnson defeated Garcia with a triangle choke that not only won submission of the night honors, but finished fourth on the UFC’s list of best submissions of 2009.

“Bad Brad” Blackburn is another well rounded veteran fighter.  Fighting for many different promotions his entire career Blackburn made his UFC debut at Fight Night 14 defeating James Giboo by TKO.  Riding a three fight UFC win streak many thought he would be able to defeat TUF 7 Champion Amir Sadollah.  In that fight, Blackburn found himself outclassed.  He was picked apart by strikes, out wrestled and almost finished on multiple occasions.

Breakdown: A smart piece of matchmaking here by Joe Silva.  Both fighters are well rounded in the sense that do many things well and nothing exceptional.  While that description ultimately will provide a glass ceiling to their careers they should be able to provide a fairly entertaining scrap when matched up against each other.  I like Johnson’s ability to scramble and find submissions.  In a fight that might otherwise be to close to call it could be a deciding factor.

Prediction:  Johnson Via Arm-Bar Round 3

Matt Veach (11-1) vs. Paul Kelly (9-2)

The Fighters: Matt Veach had a very impressive UFC debut, finishing Matt Grice with strikes in Round 1.  In his second UFC fight he took on current number 1 contender Frankie Edgar, on short notice none the less.  Of course the drastic step up in competition ended poorly for Veach but he turned a lot of heads in the process.  Veach, a H.I.T Squad member, was able to out-wrestle Edgar and even slammed him several times.  Where he struggled was in the stand up where Edgar was clearly light years ahead.

Paul Kelly’s UFC run has been a mixed bag. 3-2 in 5 UFC fights Kelly recently moved down to lightweight where he has a significant strength and reach advantage against most fighters.  Kelly’s strength is his top control where he stays very active and punishes opponents.  The rest of his game is a work in progress but at only 25 years old he still has room to grow.

Breakdown: A fight that seems to strongly favor Veach.  Veach has a ton of holes in his stand-up game, as he was dropped by both Edgar and Grice, but Kelly’s stand-up isn’t really going to provide a significant challenge.  Furthermore, Veach will be able to take down Kelly at will and neutralize his top control.  While Veach had trouble keeping Edgar down I wouldn’t expect him to have the same trouble with Kelly.

Prediction:  Veach via Unanimous Decision.

Jon Madsen (4-0) vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (6-5)

The Fighters: Jon Madsen is an alumni of the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter.  Madsen trains at the H.I.T Squad, lead by Matt Hughes.  Coming off a good showing against Justin Wren, Madsen looks to continue his win streak.

Mostapha Al-Turk is 0-2 in the UFC.  His most recent loss to Mirko Cro-Cop was somewhat controversial as Al-Turk claims he got poked in the eye and it lead to being KO’d.  Al-Turk was originally going to fight Rolles Gracie at UFC 109 but had to pull out due to visa issues.

Breakdown:  Madsen’s primary strength is his wrestling while Al-Turk’s strength is his submission grappling.  As we’ve seen in past fights if their wrestling cancels out this could be a very sloppy, very slow paced hay-maker war.  Neither of these guys come into fights in the best shape and neither have any kind of gas tank what so ever.  In what will be a re-occurring theme on this card the heat of being outdoors will only further to sap their gas tank.

If Madsen is able to take down Al-Turk and avoid his submission offense he should easily be able to grind out a very slow and very boring decision win.

Prediction: Madsen Via Unanimous Decision.

Kenny Florian (12-4; #4 Lightweight)  vs. Takanori Gomi (31-5)

The Fighters: K-Flo has gotten better with every fight since losing to Sean Sherk back in 2006.  Of course, that skill set still isn’t enough to beat B.J. Penn but you can make the argument that he’s the second best lightweight in the world.  Florian always relied during his career on his sharp Thai Boxing and BJJ skills.  He has some of the sharpest and most devastating elbows in the sport as well as fantastic leg kicks.  His ground game is also second to none as he is a Gracie-Barra Blackbelt.  What really took Florian’s game to the next level was when he left longtime coach Mark Dellagrotte and began training with Firas Zhabi and Team St. Pierre.  They took Florian’s boxing and wrestling to a whole new level and in his last fight Florian looked as sharp as ever.

Takanori Gomi in 2005 was the number one lightweight fighter in the world and it wasn’t even close.  Gomi dominated in PRIDE but since then he has stumbled.  He lost to Nick Diaz by Submission, lost to Marcus Auerillo by submission and most recently dropped back to back fights against Sergey Golyaev and Satoro Kitoka.  So what happened to Gomi?  It’s easy to apply the PRIDE corollary.  We’ve seen in general guys from PRIDE haven’t translated well to the UFC.  Gomi’s record is inflated by fighting inferior opponents and he doesn’t have as many trademark wins as you’d think.  The other reason Gomi was so successful in Japan was because of his wrestling.  Wrestling is traditionally an American sport and 99% of the international roster in PRIDE didn’t have elite level wrestling.  When you combined Gomi’s wrestling with his solid boxing he was a force to be reckoned with.  Dana White would like to argue that Gomi lost two fights to no-name opponents because he was bored by not facing top level competition but I would argue that simply the game passed him by.

Breakdown: Gomi is a solid boxer but new and improved Kenny Florian is quickly becoming one of the best boxers in MMA.  Everyone wondered where the “sudden power” came from Ken-Flo and it comes from boxing technique.  What he might lack in naturally heavy hands he makes up for in technique.  Gomi might be able to take Florian down but Florian should be able to neutralize Gomi on the ground and has a chance to sweep or submit him.

While Gomi might be able to turn back the clock I can’t see him winning this fight.  Everything Gomi does well Kenny Florian does better.  Gomi may have more left in the tank then we think but I can’t see him beating a fighter the caliber of Florian.

Prediction: Kenny Florian Via Unanimous Decision.

Roy Nelson (14-4) vs. Stefan Struve (19-3)

The Fighters: Roy Nelson is blessed with a bad body.  Sure, he could probably diet better and not have a beer belly but it’s not like he’s out of shape.  It’s obvious why that’s a big misconception with the fighter who comes out to fat and dubs himself “Big Country” but Nelson has surprisingly quick feet.  Despite his size he’s rather nimble and while he doesn’t have the pure size and strength of other 265 pound monster heavyweights he makes up for it with a solid BJJ base and very quick feet.  He uses his belly and his size as an advantage when the fight hits the ground and often looks for the crucifix position.  On the feet he has good footwork in his boxing game and obvious knockout power.  He displayed that against Brandon Schaub who he clearly outclassed on the feet en route to a text book counter punch knockout.

Stefan Struve is an intriguing heavyweight prospect.  He’s only 22 and already has 22 pro fights and 4 UFC fights under his belt.  Standing 6’11, Struve is obviously going to be an awkward match-up for anyone.  Struve has a professional kickboxing background, is 4-0 and a huge reach advantage almost all fighters (83 inch reach.)  Struve’s strongest skill is his BJJ and grappling game.  Obviously with such long limbs his guard is a difficult one to navigate.  He’s won by submission in two of his three UFC wins.

Breakdown: Struve’s height is both a blessing and a curse.  There’s a reason you don’t see many 6’11 fighters or wrestlers.  It’s hard for such a tall guy to maintain his balance and as such they will always be vulnerable for take-downs.  Struve needs to add a ton of bulk to his lank frame.  Struve typically weighs-in around 240 pounds which is simply not big enough for a guy his size.  While Struve has solid striking he hasn’t figured out how to use his jab properly enough.  With such a long reach it should be much more of a weapon then it is.

While Nelson may have trouble closing the distance due to Struve’s nine inch reach advantage, when he does eventually close in he should have no trouble taking Struve down. Struve is proficient on the ground but he isn’t in the class of Big Country.  Big Country will negate Struve’s strongest skill which makes this a disastrous match-up for him.

Struve oozes with potential but he’s only 22 years old and has a long way to go.  Much like Brandon Schaub, Struve will find himself severely over-matched against the criminally underrated Nelson.

Prediction:  Nelson TKO Round 3.

Nate Quarry (12-3) vs. Jorge Rivera (17-7)

The Fighters: Nate Quarry was favored by many win the first season of the Ultimate Fighter.  Unfortunately, during the season Quarry had to drop out of the competition.  He stayed on as a de facto coach for the rest of the season earning the respect of fans and the UFC brass in the process.  After winning his first three fights in the UFC Quarry was rushed into a title shot with Rich Franklin.  If you’ve ever seen an Ultimate Knockouts show you know how the fight ended.  Quarry lost in horrifying fashion.  Quarry managed to bounce back winning 4 of his next 5 fights, with his only loss coming to top contender Damien Maia.

The 38 year old Quarry certainly has his place in the UFC but it’s hard to imagine him getting himself back into title contention.  Quarry has strong wrestling, punching power and is very big for a middleweight.  However he carries his hands awkwardly and it doesn’t lend itself to very good boxing defense (see Franklin, Rich.)  In his last fight he gassed badly in the later rounds and it’s hard not to think that age, wear and tear have finally caught up to the veteran fighter.

Rivera is another UFC veteran.  Also 38, Rivera, made his UFC debut at UFC 44 back in 2003.  Rivera has had an up and down UFC career sporting a 6-5 record.  Rivera has gone 3-1 in his last four fights including a big upset win over Kendall Groove.  On UFC.com Rivera’s strength is listed as “well-rounded”  which is a nice way saying he’s well versed in all disciplines but doesn’t do anything exceptionally well.

Breakdown: Both Rivera and Quarry have their place as “gate-keepers” but I fail to see the logic of matching them up against each other.  However at this point in their careers Quarry is clearly the better fighter.  While he will be vulnerable to Rivera’s KO power Quarry should be able to drag this fight to the ground at will.  While on the ground he said have no problem pounding out Rivera in route to a slow paced TKO win.

Prediction:  Quarry Via TKO Strikes Round 2.

Ross Pearson (10-3) vs. Dennis Siver (15-6)

The Fighters: Pearson won season nine of the Ultimate Fighter defeating fellow Team Rough House member Andre Winner.  Pearson faced Aaron Riley in his second UFC fight and dominated the veteran fighter.  Pearson showed off all his skills against Riley.  Pearson is a Judo Brown belt and a solid wrestler and Thai kick boxer.

Dennis Siver debuted at UFC 70 and went 1-3 before being released.  After winning one fight outside the UFC, Siver returned with a vengeance.  Now on a 3 fight win streak Siver has finished all his opponents and has earned two knockout of the night honors in the process.  Siver has a background in wrestling but it’s his striking skills that have caught the attention of MMA fans.  Siver has solid technical kickboxing but also likes to mix his strikes up.  He’s finished two opponents, in devastating fashion, with spinning back kicks.

Breakdown: An excellent piece of matching making as this fight will surely be explosive while serving a duel purpose as a test of Pearson’s skills.  While Siver and Pearson may be of equal skill on the feet Pearson’s best shot of winning comes on the ground.  In his career Siver has been vulnerable to submissions, in fact of his six losses four have come by submission.

While Siver is on an impressive 3 fight win streak it’s worth noting that his opponents had a career 5-7 UFC record and two of them are no longer with the company.  Look for a Pearson to shoot after several early exchanges and eventually submit Siver.

Prediction:  Pearson Via Arm-Bar Round 3.

How do you get Keith Jardine a comeback victory? Find someone who can’t throw a left hook.

It’s looking Matt Hamill will make his return to the cage against Jardine at the TUF 11 Finale, according to MMA Junkie.

Light heavyweights Matt Hamill (8-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) and Keith Jardine (15-7-1 MMA, 6-6 UFC) are targeted to meet at The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale, MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) has learned.

Sources close to the negotiations said at least one fighter has formally agreed to the fight and is expected to sign a bout agreement shortly.

Although not yet formally announced by the UFC, The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale is expected to take place June 19 at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas. The event airs like on Spike TV and features the finalists of the reality show’s 11th season as they fight for a UFC contract.

Jardine coming off a loss to Ryan Bader that went about how we all thought it would. Jardine dominated most of the fight until Bader threw a left hook that shook Jardine and put him out. The book on The Dean of Mean has always been the same, susceptible to being knocked out.

Hamill may not have the skills to do so. The last time we saw the deaf wrestler he was getting ragged dolled across the cage by Jon Jones. Although he won that fight via DQ, it seems the UFC is treating as it loss as it should have been. Hamill has good wrestling and could take Jardine down, but his less than average striking may not be enough to take advantage of Keith’s weaknesses.

I’ll take Jardine via decision.

Jon Jones (9-1; #9 Light Heavyweight) vs. Brandon Vera (11-4)

The Fighters: Jon Jones has been regarded as the future of the 205 pound division…and the future might be now.  Already ranked in the top 10 Jones has been developed slowly by the UFC and has improved in leaps and bounds from fight to fight.  Jones striking is both creative and explosive.  He likes to use kicks and elbows, both of the spinning variety.  His spinning back elbow almost took Stephen Bonnar’s head off.   The way Jones uses his Greco-Roman wrestling is almost comical.  He took Matt Hammil, a decorated wrestler, and totally rag dolled him.  He can suplex you, out-strike you and reminds people of a young George St. Pierre.  It’s no coincidence that Jones trains with Phil Nurse, Zahabi, Jackson and the rest of Team GSP.

Five years ago Brandon Vera was once the cocky young kid on the block.  Now, 32, the Vera that once declared he would win both the heavyweight and light heavyweight title’s is long gone.  Vera has a world of potential that he has never reached.  He has sharp Thai Kickboxing with excellent leg kicks as well as excellent take down defense.  But Vera’s problem seems to be more mental.  He bills himself as a counter puncher but there’s a difference between counter punching and fight passively.  Fighting passively is the exact reason Vera lost to Randy Couture.

Breakdown: Questions still abound about Jones.  Does he have a chin?  How will he react to getting rocked?  Does he have any skills off his back?  What happens when he has to stand in the pocket and trade?  If Vera wants to win he needs to test these aspects of Jones game.  The aggressive free swinging Vera hasn’t shown up in a long time and if continues to fight passively he will find himself on the wrong end of a decision.

Prediction:  Jon Jones Via Unanimous Decision

Junior Dos Santos (10-1; #6 Heavyweight) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-4)

The Fighters: Junior Dos Santos would be the fastest rising heavyweight prospect in the world if Cain Velasquez didn’t exist. Apologies to Paul Buentello, because I am going to take a lot of shots at him, but it’s amazing that Dos Santos is only ranked 6th in the world.  The days of Tim Sylvia and other slow, lumbering heavyweights are now firmly in the rear view mirror.

Dos Santos is now 4-0 in the UFC and has displayed proficient aggressive striking and often makes great use of his uppercut.  Dos Santos trains with Team Blackhouse and the Nogueira brothers.  While he is billed as having a very good ground game we have yet to see him use it in the UFC.  The fact that he’s hasn’t had to prove he has ground skills isn’t a knock on Dos Santos but at the moment it’s what is keeping him back from being considered 1A with Cain Velasquez.

Gonzaga isn’t as tall as some of the other monster heavyweights in the division but he is incredibly thick and carries his 260 pounds very well.  Gonzaga is a world class grappler but has developed into a striker with knock out power.  Of course, any man that weighs 260+ is going to have KO power but one look at either the Kevin Jordan or Mirko Cro-cop fights will show you the destruction he can cause.

Breakdown : You would think Gonzaga would do everything in his power to get this fight to the floor.  I’m just not sure that’s what Gabriel Gonzaga thinks.  Gonzaga’s boxing is solid but you need to look no father then the Shane Carwin fight to show that it still has it’s flaws.  If Gonzaga intends on getting into a boxing match against Dos Santos he will quickly find himself out of his element.

What no one is talking about is that Gonzaga will surely weigh in 20+ pounds heavier then Dos Santos.  Gonzaga will surely be the heaviest fighter to date Dos Santos has fought.  What Gonzaga needs to do to win is take every inch of his 260 pound frame and use it to push Dos Santos into the cage.  Cutting off the cage will hamper Dos Santos mobility.  Though Dos Santos has shown the ability to dirty box, Gonzaga can time a shot off of it and drag him to the ground.

For Dos Santos if the fight does get to the ground the question becomes; how much has his ground game improved.  We don’t need to see him sweep or submit Gonzaga.  All he needs to do is be proficient enough to force a stand-up.  If he can constantly force the fight back to the feet eventually Gonzaga will tire and he will be able to land a knockout blow.

By far this is the toughest fight to pick on the card and the nearly 3-1 odds in favor of Dos Santos surprise me.

Prediction:  Dos Santos TKO Round 3.

Cheick Kongo (14-6-1) vs. Paul Buentello (27-11)

The Fighters: Cheick Kongo looks like the most intimidating fighter on the planet.  His personality however couldn’t be farther from it.  Kongo might be the most technically sound heavyweight striker the UFC has.  His Thai Boxing is top notch, but no one has ever questioned Kongo’s striking.  Since his UFC debut everyone has been waiting for Kongo to develop a ground game and it has yet to happen.  For all his positive attributes; athleticism, striking and cardio, the fact that Kongo never developed take-down defense has put a glass ceiling on his potential.

Paul Buentello is what the NFL would call a “bad body guy.”  His body is similar to Roy Nelson.  He looks fat and out of shape and while his cardio is questionable his hand speed and footwork will surprise you.  While Buentello does have fast and accurate hands it’s about all he has going for him.  He has no semblance of a ground game or any kind of gas tank.  When he gasses out he’s going to end up throwing wild haymakers, as his last fight against Stevan Struve showed.

Breakdown: What happens when two guys with similar skill sets get into the ring together?  The UFC certainly hopes a highlight reel KO.  The match-up in this fight is eerily similar to the Irvin/Sakara match-up.  Two one dimensional strikers but one is technical and the other is more of a brawler.  This is the ideal “get right” fight for Kongo.  Kongo’s chin is strong and he’s shown he has the gas tank to go the distance.  Those two skills alone give him a huge advantage in this fight.

Kongo should have a field day with Buentello.  Look for him to pepper Buentello with leg kicks all fight and remind us all how far the heavyweight division has come since UFC 55, as well as saving us from another awkward Paul Buentello post fight speech.  Don’t fear me…fear the…really no one?  really? Bueller?

Prediction: Kongo TKO Leg Kicks Round 2

James Irvin (14-5) vs. Alessio Sakara (14-7)

The Fighters: This fight was moved to the main card when Anthony Rumble Johnson went down with an injury and had to pull out of his fight against John Howard.  While neither Irvin or Sakara have much long term value this fight certainly offers a strong possibility for a highlight reel K.O.

Irvin, 31, is coming off a lay off of almost two years.  The last time we saw him in the cage his face was getting turned into a pile of goo courtesy of Anderson Silva.  Since then Irvin has battled both knee injuries and an addiction to painkillers.  Irvin tested positive for methadone and oxymorphone after the Silva fight and subsequently admitted to taking the drugs, stating that he had begun taking painkillers legally as treatment for injuries, and had then become addicted to them.  He also had to pull out of both UFC 98 and UFC 102 due to a meniscus injury.   In his return to the Octagon, Irvin a normally large 205 pound fighter, will make his debut at 185 pounds.

Sakara, 28, has had an up and down UFC career (5-4-1).  He is currently riding a two fight winning streak including a win over former middleweight title contender Thales Leites.

Breakdown: Sakara is a boxer at heart.  His striking is technically sound, as he does have a professional boxing background, but Sakara has the bad habit of getting into wild punching exchanges.  What Sakara lacks is a well versed skill set.  He never seems to be in top shape as his cardio has failed him one more then one occasion and while his jiu-jitsu is improving (he recently began training at ATT) he’s never going to look to take the fight to the ground.

Irvin’s greatest asset was his explosive striking ability.  After dealing with injuries it remains to be seen if he retains that explosive ability.  Never the most technical fighter, Irvin does  however have the natural gifts to put together a highlight reel’s worth of sudden and violent KO’s (Terry Martin/Houston Alexander.)

There are almost too many red flags to count for Irvin in this fight.  A potentially tough weight cut, ring rust, knee injuries and a painkiller addiction.   But most importantly Sakara is a terrible match-up for Irvin.  Look for Irvin to get outboxed and dropped early by a big flurry of punches.

Prediction: Sakara, KO Round 1.