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NHL

Don’t Believe The Hype

If I close my eyes, I can picture what so-called “experts” are writing and what they’re saying.
“I’ll tell you what – I like this New York Islanders team.”
“This is a team that will never say die.”
“These Islanders do not know the meaning of the word ‘quit’.”
“Last year’s Islanders team folded in the clutch. But not this year’s team.”
“Opposing teams can no longer take the New York Islanders for granted.”
Gag. I’m not trying to be the turd in the punch bowl here, but just about all of these quotes could have been attributed to the Islanders we saw twelve months ago. You know, the team that was hovering around .500 (or, as Howie Rose would say, “The NHL’s definition of .500″) and the eighth seed for the first two months of the season. Ultimately, as the season progressed, blown leads became blown games, the entire team got hurt, and that was that. This year has gone much the same way, but the Isles managed to not blow a couple of games. So now, I’m supposed to be excited? Sorry, it doesn’t work that way.
Here’s the thing. Everyone else might be surprised about the Isles’ success of late and the sudden emergence of Jeff Tambellini. I’m not.
Tambellini
Let’s discuss Tambellini first, because he’s the easy one. When Mike Piazza left the Mets to sign with the Oakland A’s as a designated hitter, he said the hardest adjustment was keeping his mental focus when he wasn’t hitting. As a DH, all he could do was hit, and if he was hitting poorly, it was hard for him to feel confident. After all, he couldn’t pat himself on the back for catching a good game anymore. Most pure scorers in the NHL are not unlike designated hitters in baseball – they need to do their one thing extremely well in order to feel confident.
Tambellini, obviously, took a long time to come around as a scorer in the NHL. Quite frankly, aside from the past week, there’s no proof that he will ever become a consistent scorer in the NHL. But Tambellini has been smart enough to focus on playing a physical game over the past 40 or so NHL games he’s played. This has not only helped the team and his development, but it’s helped his own psyche as well. Now, if he’s not scoring, he can contribute in other ways and know he’s making a difference. And sometimes, all it takes is for a scorer to not think about scoring for him to suddenly be presented with great scoring opportunities.
Yankee fans out there know that a relaxed player is that much more likely to succeed. It seems that all it took was one home run for Alex Rodriguez to transform from vilified slugger into Captain Clutch. We won’t go that far with Jeff Tambellini yet. But this is truly Tambellini’s chance. With the support of the fans and tangible proof that his hard work is paying off, he’s got a great chance to earn another contract with the Islanders.
Level of Competition
Here’s the thing about the Islanders. They play extremely well against good teams. Think about all the third-period leads they’ve blown over the past two years. Can you recall them blowing a lead against an inferior team? That’s because it never happened.
On Friday night, you might have heard Howie and Billy talking about the Capitals playing to the level of their competition. This is usually a criticism levied against good teams. However, you don’t have to be a good team to be guilty of this. The Islanders do it all the time. They’ll give a team like Washington or Pittsburgh a run for their money, then go out and stink up the joint against Florida the next night.
According to the incomparable PlayoffStatus.com, the Islanders have the highest strength of schedule thus far in the Eastern Conference. That is, their opponents have earned a higher percentage of potential points than the opponents of any other team in the East. In most cases, you’d look at a team’s strength of schedule and assume that if they’ve done well against good teams, they’ll also do well against poor teams. Sadly, that’s never been the case with the Islanders.
In four nights, the Islanders scored wins over, in terms of points, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams in the East. This is an amazing accomplishment, and Islanders fans are right to be excited. However, I’ve seen this before, and I know that the real test for the Islanders is how they perform against teams like Tampa Bay and Toronto. I know they can hang with the best teams in the league, even if “hanging” means being underestimated and then getting destroyed when the sleeping giant awakens. But I don’t know that the Islanders can win the games a good team is supposed to win.
As crazy as it sounds, November might be a tougher test for the Islanders than October was. The Islanders played 13 games in October; aside from Carolina, all of their opponents were eighth or better in their respective conferences. In November, the Islanders will play some good teams such as New Jersey and an underrated Atlanta team, but they will also play Minnesota (15th in West), St. Louis (13th in West), Florida (13th in East), Toronto (15th in East) and the aforementioned Hurricanes. If the Isles can play these teams with the same intensity as they showed against the likes of the Rangers and Capitals, I’ll feel a lot better about this team. As it stands now, though, I’m cautiously optimistic. I’m enjoying this recent run of success, but I’m taking it at face value. As Islanders fans, judging from past experiences, that’s really all we can do.
MLB

In Defense Of The Genre

It seems to have become popular to rip A’s GM Billy Beane. I can see why he’s an easy target. He’s more recognizable than 99% of GM’s, he’s had a book written about him (Moneyball) and soon it will be a motion picture. Stats in baseball, more so than other sports, seem to be polarizing. There seems to be very little in between either you are a SABERmatrcian or you are a fan of outdated illogical baseball (less than subtle jab.) But the argument against Beane and Moneyball (as highlighted by Howard Bryant on the front page of ESPN) seems to be missing a few key things.

Moneyballs subtitle was “the art of winning at unfair game.” What Billy Beane set out to do was exploit baseball by finding players that were undervalued by using statistics like on base percentage and slugging percentage. Remember 10 years ago talking about a pitchers BABIP would have made no sense. It’s why Scott Hatteberg and Chad Bradford were such valuable pieces of the A’s machine. They were effective, cheap and no one else wanted them. However part of Beanes problem was how influential he was. Moneyball, and Bill James work in general, launched a statistical revolution in baseball. Teams like the Padres, Red Sox, Indians, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Giants all rely heavily on statistical analysis now. Beane let the secrets out of the cookie jar and it hurt him in the long run. Now Beane can’t exploit the draft like he use to because everyone is doing the same thing.  Hell, even the big boys like the Yankees and Red Sox understand the value of draft picks. When teams all started to value these diamond in the rough players they in a sense became overalued. Smart teams, like the Rays, turned their attention to pitching, defense and base-running. The upstart 2008 Rays may have been the most athletic baseball team ever and it wasn’t by accident.

Now recently I wrote about Bronson Arroyo when the Yankees were apparently targeting him (although that turned out to be false.) I used two statsical mesasures, xFIP and Outside Contact% to show that Arroyo might not be as bad as most think. Mike Tramamasomethingorother of WCWP Sports took me to task in my evaluation of Arroyo.

Now I don’t like Arroyo at all, and his bloated ERA will atest to him not being very good. However, if you want to say his playing in Cincinnati is hurtful thanks to their homer friendly ballpark is a viable argument…to a point. Yet Jason begins using a stat called xFIP- or fielding independent pitching with a normalized home run rate. Hold on….WHAT?!?!

Ah, look it’s the proverbial pot calling the kettle black. “Now I don’t like Arroyo at all, and his bloated ERA will attest to him not being very good.” Wait…was that a statistic you used there Mike? Why should ERA be the measure by which you evaluate players.

ERA is a silly stat for a few reasons. 1) it doesn’t take park or league factor into effect. Pitching at Yankee Stadium is different than pitching at PETCO Park. 2) it doesn’t factor in defense. Is it a pitchers fault if Jason Giambi is playing first base as opposed to Mark Texieria? Why should the pitcher be penalized for things he can’t control? You are judging Arroyo by statistics just like I am except you’re only getting part of the picture.

Another perfect example is Ben Zobrist. Last time I checked 28 year old role players don’t become Albert Pujols overnight but if you judge Zobrist on, what I’ll call Mike T Surface Stats, his .301 average, 18 homers, 12 steals look really good. But, looking closer his .335 BABIP (or batting average on balls in play) is .35 points above league average. And an astonishing 22% of Zobrist’s fly balls are home runs (leauge average is about 12%) I’m sure these stats will back up any scouting report on Zobrist. He’s having a fluke season. And I can only hope that last paragraph made Mike’s head explode like the dude in Scanners.

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It’s people like Mike Tramawhatever that perpetuate the myth that stats like Wins and RBI’s matter at all. While you can say “that xFIP is useless” I’ll say don’t be afraid of things you don’t understand.  And while Beane has won “less than 1 world title” since 2000 so have the Yankees and Mets but they’ve spent a whole lot more money failing.

MLB

I Blinked And It Was 8 P.M.

I mentioned to Anthony recently that I had heard of a website, FanGraphs.com, that was supposedly on the cutting edge of statistical analysis.  I gave the website a quick look over and was intrigued.  However, the website can be overwhelming, even to someone familiar with Professor Beane’s teachings.

This afternoon I decided I would take sometime to figure out what FanGraphs.com was all about.  I have to say I was thoroughly impressed with what the website has to offer.  As the post title implies I could, and did, spend days/hours/weeks absorbing everything FanGraphs has to offer.

So what’s the big deal with Fan Graphs? (This might read like an advertisement but trust me I’m just an excited baseball stat nerd)

-Fan Graphs tracks Plate Discipline like never before.  Type in any players name and you can find out how often they swing at pitches inside or outside the strike zone, how often they swing at the first pitch  and much much more.

-Win Shares are awesome.  A Win Share is a players runs above average (where an average player produced 20 runs per 600 plate appearances) + their defensive runs above average + replacement value + an adjustment for the position they play.  For example take Vernon Wells.  Wells, having a terrible year, is actually worse than a replacement level player.  Wells is -3.2 runs below average,  his defense is a dismal -21.3 runs below average.  A replacement player would score 13.2 runs.  Wells plays center field so his positional adjustment would be 1.3.  So: -3.2 + -21.3 + 13.2 + 1.3 = -10.1.  Meaning by starting Wells everyday over a replacement level player the Blue Jays will lose 10.1 runs over the course of the season.   Since every 10 runs = 1 win, Wells actually will cost the Blue Jays 1 game this season.

There’s so much to find at Fan Graphs that it’s a must read for any baseball stat nerd, like myself.  It’s hard to say the Fan Graphs hasn’t emerged as the leader in statistical analysis even trumping Baseball Prospectus (in fact in Baseball Prospectus’s most recent article they actually use stats from Fan Graphs.)

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