Jon Jones (9-1; #9 Light Heavyweight) vs. Brandon Vera (11-4)

The Fighters: Jon Jones has been regarded as the future of the 205 pound division…and the future might be now.  Already ranked in the top 10 Jones has been developed slowly by the UFC and has improved in leaps and bounds from fight to fight.  Jones striking is both creative and explosive.  He likes to use kicks and elbows both of the spinning variety.  His spinning back elbow almost took Stephen Bonnar’s head off.   The way Jones uses his Greg-Roman wrestling is almost comical.  He took Matt Hammil, a decorated wrestler, and totally rag dolled him.  He can suplex you, out-strike you and reminds people of a young George St. Pierre.  It’s no coincidence that Jones trains with Phil Nurse, Zahabi, Jackson and the rest of Team GSP.

Five years ago Brandon Vera was once the cock young kid on the block.  Now, 32, the Vera that once declared he would win both the heavyweight and light heavyweight title’s is long gone.  Vera has a world of potential that he has never reached.  He has sharp Thai Kickboxing with excellent leg kicks as well as excellent take down defense.  But Vera’s problem seems to be more mental.  He bills himself as a counter puncher but there’s a difference between counter punching and fight passively.  Fighting passively is the exact reason Vera lost to Randy Couture.

Breakdown: Questions still abound about Jones.  Does he have a chin?  How will he react to getting rocked?  Does he have any skills off his back?  What happens when he has to stand in the pocket and trade?  If Vera wants to win he needs to test these aspects of Jones game.  The aggressive free swinging Vera hasn’t shown up in a long time and if continues to fight passively he will find himself on the wrong end of a decision.

Prediction:  Jon Jones Via Unanimous Decision.

Junior Dos Santos (10-1; #6 Heavyweight) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-4)

The Fighters: Junior Dos Santos would be the fastest rising heavyweight prospect in the world if Cain Velasquez didn’t exist. Apologizes to Paul Buentello, because I am going to take a lot of shots at him, but it’s amazing that Dos Santo is only ranked 6th in the world.  The days of Tim Slyvia and other slow, lumbering heavyweights are now firmly in the rear view mirror.

Dos Santos is now 4-0 in the UFC and has displayed proficient aggressive striking and often makes great use of his uppercut.  Dos Santos trains with Team Blackhouse and the Nougeria brothers.  While he is billed as having a very good ground game we have yet to see him use it in the UFC.  The fact that he’s hasn’t had to prove he has ground skills isn’t a knock on Dos Santos but at the moment it’s what is keeping him back from being considered 1A with Cain Velasquez.

Gonzaga isn’t as tall as some of the other monster heavyweights in the division but he is incredibly thick and carries his 260 pounds very well.  Gonzaga is a world class grappler but has developed into a striker with knock out power.  Of course any man that weighs 260+ is going to have KO power but one look at either the Kevin Jordan or Mirko Cro-cop fights will show you the destruction he can cause.

Breakdown : You would think Gonzaga would do everything in his power to get this fight to the floor.  I’m just not sure that’s what Gabriel Gonzaga thinks.  Gonzaga’s boxing is solid but you need to look no father then the Shane Carwin fight to show that it still has it’s flaws.  If Gonzaga intends on getting into a boxing match against Dos Santos he will quickly find himself out of his element.

What no one is talking about is that Gonzaga will surely weigh in 20+ pounds heavier then Dos Santos.  Gonzaga will surely be the heaviest fighter to date Dos Santos has fought.  What Gonzaga needs to do to win is take every inch of his 260 pound frame and use it to push Dos Santos into the cage.  Cutting off the cage will hamper Dos Santos mobility.  Though Dos Santos has shown the ability to dirty box, Gonzaga can time a shot off of it and drag him to the ground.

For Dos Santos if the fight does get to the ground the question becomes; how much has his ground game improved.  We don’t need to see him sweep or submit Gonzaga.  All he needs to do is be proficient enough to force a stand-up.  If he can constantly force the fight back to the feet eventually Gonzaga will tire and he will be able to land a knockout blow.

By far this is the toughest fight to pick on the card and the nearly 3-1 odds in favor of Dos Santos surprise me.

Prediction:  Dos Santos TKO Round 3.

Cheick Kongo (14-6-1) vs. Paul Buentello (27-11)

The Fighters: Cheick Kongo looks like the most intimidating fighter on the planet.  His personality however couldn’t be farther from it.  Kongo might be the most technically sound heavyweight striker the UFC has.  His Thai Boxing is top notch, but no one has ever questioned Kongo’s striking.  Since his UFC debut everyone has been waiting for Kongo to develop a ground game and it has yet to happen.  For all his positive attributes, athleticism, striking and cardio, the fact that Kongo never developed take-down defense has put a glass ceiling on his potential.

Paul Buentello is what the NFL would call a “bad body guy.”  His body is similar to Roy Nelson.  He looks fat and out of shape and while his cardio is questionable his hand speed and footwork will surprise you.  While Buntello does have fast and accurate hands it’s about all he has going for him.  He has no semblance of a ground game or any kind of gas tank .  When he gasses out he’s going to end up throwing wild haymakers (as his last fight against Stevan Struve showed.)

Breakdown: What happens when two guys with similar skill sets get into the ring together?  The UFC certainly hopes a highlight reel KO.  The match-up in this fight is eerily similar to the Irvin/Sakara match-up.  Two one dimensional strikers but one is technical and the other is more of a brawler.  This is the ideal “get right” fight for Kongo.  Kongo’s chin is strong and he’s shown he has the gas tank to go the distance.  Those two skills alone give him a huge advantage in this fight.

Kongo should have a field day with Buentello.  Look for him to pepper Buentello with leg kicks all fight and remind us all how much the heavyweight division has come since UFC 55, as well as saving us from another awkward Paul Buentello post fight speech.  Don’t fear me…fear the…really no one?  really? Bueller?

Prediction: Kongo TKO Leg Kicks Round 2

James Irvin (14-5) vs. Alessio Sakara (14-7)

The Fighters: This fight was moved to the main card when Anthony Rumble Johnson went down with an injury and had to pull out of his fight against John Howard.  While neither Irvin or Sakara have much long term value this fight certainly offers a strong possibility for a highlight reel K.O.

Irvin, 31, is coming off a lay off of almost two years.  The last time we saw him in the cage his face was getting turned into a pile of goo courtesy of Anderson Silva.  Since then Irvin has battled both knee injuries and an addiction to painkillers.  Irvin tested positive for methadone and oxymorphone after the Silva fight and subsequently admitted to taking the drugs, stating that he had begun taking painkillers legally as treatment for injuries, and had then become addicted to them.  He also had to pull out of both UFC 98 and UFC 102 due to a meniscus injury.   In his return to the Octagon, Irvin a normally large 205 pound fighter, will make his debut at 185 pounds.

Sakara, 28, has had an up and down UFC career (5-4-1).  He is currently riding a two fight winning streak including a win over former middleweight title contender Thales Leites.

Breakdown: Sakara is a boxer at heart.  His striking is technically sound, as he does have a professional boxing background, but Sakara has the bad habit of getting into wild punching exchanges.  What Sakara lacks is a well versed skill set.  He never seems to be in top shape as his cardio has failed him one more then one occasion and while his jiu-jitsu is improving (he recently began training at ATT) he’s never going to look to take the fight to the ground.

Irvin’s greatest asset was his explosive striking ability.  After dealing with injuries it remains to be seen if he retains that explosive ability.  Never the most technical fighter, Irvin does  however have the natural gifts to put together a highlight reel’s worth of sudden and violent KO’s (Terry Martin/Houston Alexander.)

There are almost too many red flags to count for Irvin in this fight.  A potentially tough weight cut, ring rust, knee injuries and a painkiller addiction.   But most importantly Sakara is a terrible match-up for Irvin.  Look for Irvin to get outboxed and dropped early by a big flurry of punches.

Prediction: Sakara, KO Round 1.