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NBA

Is A Doomsday 2010 Really That Terrible For The Knicks?

Imagine a “Doomsday Summer Of 2010″ scenario Knicks fans.  LeBron resigns with Cleveland, Brandon Jennings has become a megastar, the cap comes in at the lowest expected number, and Eddy Curry/Jared Jeffries are both still wearing orange and blue.  All hope is lost and Donnie Walsh is a failure….right?

Wrong.  Even in a worst case scenario the Knicks still have a lot of hope.  While fans and the media will anoint any Non-LeBron team a failure the truth is there are still a ton of ways the Knicks can make it work.

So lets say the Knicks can’t make any roster moves between now and next summers free agency.  Here’s their commitments (rounded to the nearest million):

Eddy Curry (12), Jared Jeffries, (7) Danilo Gallinari, (3) Jordan Hill, (3) Wilson Chandler, and (2) Toney Douglas (1) =$28 Mill

Now since the Knicks only have six players under contract the NBA, under the salary cap rules, would add six placeholder players who would make the league minimum.  In other words roughly $3 million worth of additional salary.

Keeping with the worst case scenario theme let’s say the NBA salary cap comes in at $50 million. With the Knicks committed to $31 million in payroll they would be $19 million under the cap.

What could the Knicks do with that money?

Offer Rudy Gay, a restricted free agent, enough money Memphis can’t afford to match it.  Gay is a guy who will re-energize NY.  He’s a borderline all-star right now but will thrive in an uptempo offense.  He needs to refine his defense to take his game to the next level but at only 23 and already showing signs of taking the leap.

  • Of the players of the 2006 draft class only Rondo, Roy, Aldridge and Bargnani got extensions.  If Memphis was prepared to pay Gay big time money wouldn’t they have offered him an extension?
  • If the Knicks offered Gay the same contract Rondo got; 55 million over 5 years, starting at 9 million, would Memphis financially be able to match?  Memphis already has $47 million committed to their ‘09 payroll.  That number doesn’t include their three first round picks, including one that will likely be in the top 5.  Let’s say those draft picks add up to $7 million.  That takes the Grizzles cap number to $54 million.  Paying Gay $9 million would top them off at $63 million, dangerously close to a potential luxury tax line.
  • Have the Grizzles ever demonstrated that they are willing to spend money? Furthermore O.J Mayo is due to hit restricted free agency in 2012, eventually he’ll command a near max deal as well.

So now the Knicks have Gay and still have $10 million left to play with.  As currently constructed NY would still lack a floor general PG who could run the Seven Seconds Or Less Offense.  They could turn to free agency to fill this void.

  • Ray Felton: Unrestricted free agent. Would be pricey and might never be better then a third guard on a great team.
  • T.J Ford: Has a player option, at $8.5 million, if he opted out he would be looking for big bucks.  Ford has the speed to run an offense but since joining Indy his assist numbers have dropped dramatically.  Health is also a big question mark for the undersized Ford.
  • Kyle Lowry: Restricted free agent.  A tenacious defender whose great at pushing the pace on both ends.  He drives to the lane like few PG’s can and has a knack for drawing fouls.  His long range jumper is improving but still has a long way to go.  He’s also never been asked to play starter minutes and hasn’t consistently dished out assists.  Lowry might be the best fit for the Knicks but he’s a restricted free agent and he’d be hard to pry away.  The Rockets love him
  • Randy Foye: Also a restricted free agent. Foye seems to have fallen out of favor in Washington.  He’s a bit of a tweener but for a PG he’s solid defensively.  Foye has a solid range on his jumper, but is a shoot first point guard.

The Knicks best option might be to hit the trade market.  Being under the cap the Knicks are the perfect match for a team looking to shed salary.

  • Chicago is a team that will be looking shed salary entering the Summer Of 2010.  The Bulls, blessed with Derrick Rose, have Kirk Hinrich eating up $9 million and not playing major minutes.  While Hinrich doesn’t carry name value he’s a very solid jump shooter, distributor and defender.  The Knicks could essentially trade nothing (cap space) for Hinrch.  Hinrich is owed $17 million over the next two seasons.  A reasonable short term commitment for the Knicks.

So now the Knicks have added Gay ($9 million) and Hinrich ($9 million) to their 2010 payroll.  That would pretty much put them up against the cap.  With their remaining money, and mid level exception, the Knicks could go bargain shopping.

  • Wouldn’t Raja Bell, coming off an injury, take a 2 million dollar contract to reunite with D’Antoni in the Big Apple?
  • Wouldn’t Marcus Camby take a 3 million dollar contract to come back to the Garden?

So now, having spent all the Knicks money here’s their hypothetical roster:

Starters: C: Camby, PF: Gallinari, SF: Gay, SG: Bell, PG: Hinrich.

Sixth Man: Wilson Chandler; SG/SF

Bench: Jordan Hill; PF/C, Toney Douglas; PG/SG, Jared Jefferies; SF/PF, Eddy Curry; C.

In a weak East isn’t that easily a playoff caliber team?  Are you telling me that this group is worse then the Pacers (currently the 7 seed) or the Bobcats (currently the 8 seed)?

And here’s the best part.  In 2011 the Knicks would have $20+ million coming off the books and primed to be major players in free agency.  Maybe it isn’t as loaded as 2010 but take a look at some of the 2011 free agents.

  • Tony Parker, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, Caron Butler, David West, Josh Howard, Jason Richardson, Richard Jefferson, Tayshuan Prince, John Salmons and Andrei Kirilenko.

Just because Donnie Walsh’s 2010 Plan begins with LeBron James doesn’t mean it ends with him.  There are plenty of other ways to make the Knicks relevant again. Even if the sky comes falling.

NBA

Donnie Swings and Misses: Revisiting June’s Draft

Despite the 2009-10 NBA Season being a week old, I have come to the decision that Donnie Walsh blew it in June’s Draft when he had the number eight overall pick. I understand that Walsh had his hands tied when Stephen Curry and Ricky Rubio were already picked but I still cannot come to terms as to why Donnie Walsh believed that with their lottery pick Jordan Hill was the best option.

In my mock drafts, specifically leading up to the actual night of, I pegged the Knicks selecting Hill only because of the admiration the organization had for the former Wildcat. It is obvious though that there were two players that Walsh should have selected two guys before the thought of Hill crossed their minds. Ty Lawson and more specifically, Brandon Jennings, fit the Knicks plans and design and unfortunately, Donnie swung and missed…big time.

Hill has played in one game this year and has played a grand total of two minutes. Now no one thought he would come in and be a rookie of the year caliber type of player but no one thought he would be this far behind in terms of getting up to NBA speed and development. Compare those stats to Ty Lawson of the Denver Nuggets who is currently averaging 9 points and 3 assists in a backup role to Chauncey Billups in less than 20 minutes of play. I always thought Lawson would be a guy who could perfectly fit the bill with D’Antoni’s run and gun style. He is averaging a 5:1 Assists/Turnover ratio. That is how you play point guard folks.

Without Blake Griffin, Brandon Jennings has stolen the spotlight for this year’s rookies putting up ridiculous numbers for the Milwaukee Bucks. With a line of 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists, Jennings has stolen the show and makes the departure of Ramon Sessions a forgotten thought. While he drew criticisms for leaving Arizona to play in Italy, Jennings has proven the inconsistency shown overseas was all a fluke, and his American game translates much better.

So where does Jordan Hill fit? Mike D’Antoni has already converted Wilson Chandler to the 4 to play similarly to Shawn Marion when D’Antoni was in Phoenix and he has David Lee at center. With Gallo and Al Harrington also being able to play the 3 and the 4, the need for Hill is perplexing. If Donnie Walsh felt there was a pressing need for a big man, why did he not draft Brook Lopez over Gallinari in 2008? Has Gallo proven anything in the NBA besides the fact that 75% of his shots this season have been 3 pointers? If I wanted that, give me Jason Kapono for a fraction of the money and draft Lopez.

The track record for Donnie Walsh’s draft picks have been less than impressive. Here are a list of the first round picks since Walsh began drafting with the Indiana Pacers.

The Good: Reggie Miller, Rik Smits, Al Harrington, Danny Granger,

The Bad: George McCloud, Dale Davis, Travis Best, Erick Dampier, Vonteego Cummings

The Ugly: Malik Sealy, Scott Haskin, Eric Piatkowski, Austin Croshere, Primoz Brezec, Fred Jones, David Harrison, Jonathan Bender, Shawne Williams

The names don’t lie. Walsh has put all of his chips onto the table by acquiring expiring contract after expiring contract. If Walsh is unable to land Lebron James, what will the reaction be then from Knicks fans? With no 2010 first round pick (which would have surely land them in the lottery) when can the Knicks address the point guard situation? Can Toney Douglas actually assume the full-time position next year? Doubt it. All Knicks fans can do now is watch Jordan Hill continually disappoint hopefuls by sitting on the bench while Brandon Jennings continues to soar in Wisconsin. Who knows, maybe he will start to take Packer fans minds off of Brett Favre.

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