Stock Up

1. Frankie Edgar – Congratulations to Frankie. He fought a great fight by being elusive and using technical boxing to beat a better fighter. Way to show the world that a little hard work can make up for being undersized. All us short guys out there thank you. More importantly, the lightweight division just got very interesting. Edgar v. Maynard seems to be next, but we’ll step back and see what happens next.
2. Phil Davis – An anaconda choke? I thought this guy was a wrestler. Much like Jon Jones, the potential here is just scary. Davis is a huge, fast twitch athlete that has looked so dominant. A step up in competition is due, and an elevation to the main card should come with it.
3. Demian Maia – Yes, I know he was never in the fight against Silva. However, while Silva danced around like an idiot for three rounds, Maia tried to engage him and fight with some heart. The only thing that annoyed me was him feigning respect for Silva at the end. The man disrespected you for five rounds, tell him to go to hell.

Stock Down

1. Anderson Silva – Silva was better off losing that fight. That’s how bad he made the UFC, Dana White and MMA in general look. If you take away the Griffin fight, Silva has been in three straight TERRIBLE main events. The man no longer takes the sport seriously, and needs to rededicate himself or retire. You think that I’m angry? Dana White said Silva might fight on an undercard as punishment for this.
2. B.J. Penn – Now everyone knows I’m not Penn’s biggest supporter, but even I could see that something was not right with Penn. While Frankie deserves credit for beating a legend, Penn looked like old B.J. who gassed out in the late rounds. The Abu Dhabi air probably had something to do with it, but Jason also pointed out that Penn might have been hurt going into the fight, as he was wearing a knee brace into the cage.
3. Renzo Gracie – What a shame. Renzo looked so old tonight. While Hughes didn’t look all that great either, Renzo actually needed help to get up because of all the leg kicks that he took in the fight. By the way, BOOOO to the normally fantastic Herb Dean for not stopping the fighter when Renzo couldn’t stand. I know that you wanted to let him go out as a warrior, but there is a limit.

Phil Davis (5-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (9-0)

The Fighters: Phil Davis is one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects. Davis was a decorated wrestler at Penn State. He was a 4 time All-American with a career 116-20 record, including a 26-1 senior year where he won an individual title. In his UFC debut, Davis showed off those wrestling skills as he worked over Brian Stann over three rounds.

When the UFC signed Gustafsson the Internet was ablaze with excitement. Doing some digging on Youtube I found an awful lot to like about the 22 year old, Sweedish kick-boxer. His frame, 6’5, gives him a a reach advantage over most fighters. His power is obvious, in his UFC debut a straight took down Hamman, and his hand speed (think Mike Swick) might be unrivaled at 205. Gustafsson is 9-0 but hasn’t fought anyone of note and it’s unclear if his wrestling/jiu-jitsu game is any good.

Breakdown: A classic striker/wrestler match up. Gustafasson certainly has a chance to KO Davis. He has very fast, accurate and powerful strikes and we certainly haven’t seen Davis’s chin tested yet. However, I can’t imagine this fight staying on the feet for very long. Davis had his way with Brian Stann and I see this fight going the same way. In terms of MMA ability, Davis is very raw, think King ‘Mo, but his wrestling credentials will give him the ability to win a decision over fighters with much more MMA experience.

Prediction: Davis Via Unanimous Decision.

Paul Taylor (10-5-1) vs. John Gunderson (22-7)

The Fighters: Taylor is another exciting British fighter who always seems to have exciting fights.  Three of Taylor’s seven UFC fights have won fight of the night, of course he’s also lost all three of those fights.  Moving down to lightweight for the first time in his career Taylor, 3-4 in the UFC, desperately needs a win to avoid the cut happy UFC brass.

John Gunderson is 0-1 in the UFC having lost his debut to Rafellio Olivera at UFC 108.

Breakdown: Gunderson is a wrestler who likes top control.  However, much like Mark Bocek, his wrestling isn’t good enough to consistently earn him the position.  Taylor’s takedown defense isn’t stellar but it should be enough to stop Gunderson at least some of the time.  While the fight is on the feet Taylor should hold a big advantage as Gunderson might serve as nothing more then a punching bag.  The loser of this fight is most likely going to be exiting stage left and something tells me it won’t be Paul Taylor.

Prediction:  Paul Taylor via KO Round 2

Nick Osipczak (5-0) vs. Rick Story (9-3)

The Fighters: A fight that easily could have been on the main card.  With both these fighters on impressive win streaks we could see the winner of this fight taking a big step up in competition next.

Osipczak lost to Damarques Johnson during the Ultimate Fighter in what Dana White called one of the best fights in the history of the show.  Osipczak rebounded by beating Frank Lester then upsetting Matt Riddle.  In the Riddle fight Osipczak showcased his great jiu-jitsu game and was able to naturalize Riddle’s wrestling.  Along with his jiu-jitsu Osipzack has solid take down defense as well as a solid striking game (Osipczack has a background in San Shou.)

A lot of people think Rick Story is the next big thing.  A college wrestler with a big strong frame Story 2-1 in the UFC and has rebounded since losing his debut to the highly touted John Hathaway.  Saying Story is strong might be an understatement and to go along with his wrestling prowess Story has solid submissions and a striking game that’s at least good enough.

Breakdown: A very tough fight to call.  Osipczak will have an advantage while he can keep the fight standing, I’m just not sure how long he can.  However, we have seen that you can take advantage of Story in scrambles as shown in the John Hatahway fight.  I’m in the minority here but I was incredibly impressed by how dominant Osipczak’s ground game was against Matt Riddle.  Watch him transition from position to position reminded me a lot of Paulo Filho or George Sotiropoulous.  While this fight can go either way I like Osipczak to upset another big strong wrestler.

Prediction: Osipczak Via Inverted Triangle Choke Round 3

DaMarques Johnson (10-7) vs. Brad Blackburn (15-10-1)

The Fighters: DaMarques Johnson was the runner up of TUF: UK vs US.  Johnson rebounded by defeating Edgar Garcia at UFC 107.  Showing off his well rounded skill set Johnson defeated Garcia with a triangle choke that not only won submission of the night honors, but finished fourth on the UFC’s list of best submissions of 2009.

“Bad Brad” Blackburn is another well rounded veteran fighter.  Fighting for many different promotions his entire career Blackburn made his UFC debut at Fight Night 14 defeating James Giboo by TKO.  Riding a three fight UFC win streak many thought he would be able to defeat TUF 7 Champion Amir Sadollah.  In that fight, Blackburn found himself outclassed.  He was picked apart by strikes, out wrestled and almost finished on multiple occasions.

Breakdown: A smart piece of matchmaking here by Joe Silva.  Both fighters are well rounded in the sense that do many things well and nothing exceptional.  While that description ultimately will provide a glass ceiling to their careers they should be able to provide a fairly entertaining scrap when matched up against each other.  I like Johnson’s ability to scramble and find submissions.  In a fight that might otherwise be to close to call it could be a deciding factor.

Prediction:  Johnson Via Arm-Bar Round 3

Matt Veach (11-1) vs. Paul Kelly (9-2)

The Fighters: Matt Veach had a very impressive UFC debut, finishing Matt Grice with strikes in Round 1.  In his second UFC fight he took on current number 1 contender Frankie Edgar, on short notice none the less.  Of course the drastic step up in competition ended poorly for Veach but he turned a lot of heads in the process.  Veach, a H.I.T Squad member, was able to out-wrestle Edgar and even slammed him several times.  Where he struggled was in the stand up where Edgar was clearly light years ahead.

Paul Kelly’s UFC run has been a mixed bag. 3-2 in 5 UFC fights Kelly recently moved down to lightweight where he has a significant strength and reach advantage against most fighters.  Kelly’s strength is his top control where he stays very active and punishes opponents.  The rest of his game is a work in progress but at only 25 years old he still has room to grow.

Breakdown: A fight that seems to strongly favor Veach.  Veach has a ton of holes in his stand-up game, as he was dropped by both Edgar and Grice, but Kelly’s stand-up isn’t really going to provide a significant challenge.  Furthermore, Veach will be able to take down Kelly at will and neutralize his top control.  While Veach had trouble keeping Edgar down I wouldn’t expect him to have the same trouble with Kelly.

Prediction:  Veach via Unanimous Decision.

Jon Madsen (4-0) vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (6-5)

The Fighters: Jon Madsen is an alumni of the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter.  Madsen trains at the H.I.T Squad, lead by Matt Hughes.  Coming off a good showing against Justin Wren, Madsen looks to continue his win streak.

Mostapha Al-Turk is 0-2 in the UFC.  His most recent loss to Mirko Cro-Cop was somewhat controversial as Al-Turk claims he got poked in the eye and it lead to being KO’d.  Al-Turk was originally going to fight Rolles Gracie at UFC 109 but had to pull out due to visa issues.

Breakdown:  Madsen’s primary strength is his wrestling while Al-Turk’s strength is his submission grappling.  As we’ve seen in past fights if their wrestling cancels out this could be a very sloppy, very slow paced hay-maker war.  Neither of these guys come into fights in the best shape and neither have any kind of gas tank what so ever.  In what will be a re-occurring theme on this card the heat of being outdoors will only further to sap their gas tank.

If Madsen is able to take down Al-Turk and avoid his submission offense he should easily be able to grind out a very slow and very boring decision win.

Prediction: Madsen Via Unanimous Decision.

The Brits are still incomplete as fighters. We saw that the other day when George St. Pierre threw Dan Hardy around the cage, and Hardy offered little resistance. Generally, they don’t offer much in the way of wrestling or ground game, instead focused on the kind of bare-knuckle brawling that often gets MMA fighters into a lot of trouble.

However, along comes this lightweight with Tattoos, a bald head, and an accent that makes me need subtitles despite the fact that he is speaking English. He wins TUF 9, and in the finale defeats fellow Team Rough House member Andre Winner. While I appreciated the toughness, I never expected Ross Pearson to become anything. After all, I had just been burned by hopping on the Efrain Escudero bandwagon just a season earlier.

Fast forward today and things are looking good for 24 year old Ross Pearson. He is quickly burning through the lower part of the lightweight division. Last night, he took another step by defeating Denis Siver. The German had used the spinning body kick of doom to dispose of his last two opponents, but Pearson was able to withstand it and get the decision win. While he was in control, it was clear at all points that he was fighting for a decision, not to finish. As I said yesterday, it’s fine if that is a gameplan for one fight, just don’t make it a habit.

So, the question we face now is: What is next for Pearson? It’s clear that he should take a step up in competition. How big should that leap be? Well, I’ll tell you what he shouldn’t do. He should not be stepping up into the Jim Miller/Kurt Pellegrino class. Those guys are still too good. They will take him down and submit him. That does nothing but send him back to where he started.

Instead, I think we should look to another TUF winner for his next opponent: Mac Danzig. Danzig’s gameplan in the fight would be to take Pearson down rather than lose the battle on the feet. He’ll try to takedown the Brit, and submit him, and we’ll see if Pearson shares the wrestling problem that most his British kin share. Remember, most of the best of the best in the lightweight class are elite wrestlers. If Pearson beats Danzig, I think someone like Pellegrino would then be a great test for him.

Pearson’s toughness and striking have created a pretty high ceiling for him. However, we’ll need to see some takedown defense before we can crown him as a contender.

Kenny Florian (12-4; #4 Lightweight)  vs. Takanori Gomi (31-5)

The Fighters: K-Flo has gotten better with every fight since losing to Sean Sherk back in 2006.  Of course, that skill set still isn’t enough to beat B.J. Penn but you can make the argument that he’s the second best lightweight in the world.  Florian always relied during his career on his sharp Thai Boxing and BJJ skills.  He has some of the sharpest and most devastating elbows in the sport as well as fantastic leg kicks.  His ground game is also second to none as he is a Gracie-Barra Blackbelt.  What really took Florian’s game to the next level was when he left longtime coach Mark Dellagrotte and began training with Firas Zhabi and Team St. Pierre.  They took Florian’s boxing and wrestling to a whole new level and in his last fight Florian looked as sharp as ever.

Takanori Gomi in 2005 was the number one lightweight fighter in the world and it wasn’t even close.  Gomi dominated in PRIDE but since then he has stumbled.  He lost to Nick Diaz by Submission, lost to Marcus Auerillo by submission and most recently dropped back to back fights against Sergey Golyaev and Satoro Kitoka.  So what happened to Gomi?  It’s easy to apply the PRIDE corollary.  We’ve seen in general guys from PRIDE haven’t translated well to the UFC.  Gomi’s record is inflated by fighting inferior opponents and he doesn’t have as many trademark wins as you’d think.  The other reason Gomi was so successful in Japan was because of his wrestling.  Wrestling is traditionally an American sport and 99% of the international roster in PRIDE didn’t have elite level wrestling.  When you combined Gomi’s wrestling with his solid boxing he was a force to be reckoned with.  Dana White would like to argue that Gomi lost two fights to no-name opponents because he was bored by not facing top level competition but I would argue that simply the game passed him by.

Breakdown: Gomi is a solid boxer but new and improved Kenny Florian is quickly becoming one of the best boxers in MMA.  Everyone wondered where the “sudden power” came from Ken-Flo and it comes from boxing technique.  What he might lack in naturally heavy hands he makes up for in technique.  Gomi might be able to take Florian down but Florian should be able to neutralize Gomi on the ground and has a chance to sweep or submit him.

While Gomi might be able to turn back the clock I can’t see him winning this fight.  Everything Gomi does well Kenny Florian does better.  Gomi may have more left in the tank then we think but I can’t see him beating a fighter the caliber of Florian.

Prediction: Kenny Florian Via Unanimous Decision.

Roy Nelson (14-4) vs. Stefan Struve (19-3)

The Fighters: Roy Nelson is blessed with a bad body.  Sure, he could probably diet better and not have a beer belly but it’s not like he’s out of shape.  It’s obvious why that’s a big misconception with the fighter who comes out to fat and dubs himself “Big Country” but Nelson has surprisingly quick feet.  Despite his size he’s rather nimble and while he doesn’t have the pure size and strength of other 265 pound monster heavyweights he makes up for it with a solid BJJ base and very quick feet.  He uses his belly and his size as an advantage when the fight hits the ground and often looks for the crucifix position.  On the feet he has good footwork in his boxing game and obvious knockout power.  He displayed that against Brandon Schaub who he clearly outclassed on the feet en route to a text book counter punch knockout.

Stefan Struve is an intriguing heavyweight prospect.  He’s only 22 and already has 22 pro fights and 4 UFC fights under his belt.  Standing 6’11, Struve is obviously going to be an awkward match-up for anyone.  Struve has a professional kickboxing background, is 4-0 and a huge reach advantage almost all fighters (83 inch reach.)  Struve’s strongest skill is his BJJ and grappling game.  Obviously with such long limbs his guard is a difficult one to navigate.  He’s won by submission in two of his three UFC wins.

Breakdown: Struve’s height is both a blessing and a curse.  There’s a reason you don’t see many 6’11 fighters or wrestlers.  It’s hard for such a tall guy to maintain his balance and as such they will always be vulnerable for take-downs.  Struve needs to add a ton of bulk to his lank frame.  Struve typically weighs-in around 240 pounds which is simply not big enough for a guy his size.  While Struve has solid striking he hasn’t figured out how to use his jab properly enough.  With such a long reach it should be much more of a weapon then it is.

While Nelson may have trouble closing the distance due to Struve’s nine inch reach advantage, when he does eventually close in he should have no trouble taking Struve down. Struve is proficient on the ground but he isn’t in the class of Big Country.  Big Country will negate Struve’s strongest skill which makes this a disastrous match-up for him.

Struve oozes with potential but he’s only 22 years old and has a long way to go.  Much like Brandon Schaub, Struve will find himself severely over-matched against the criminally underrated Nelson.

Prediction:  Nelson TKO Round 3.

Nate Quarry (12-3) vs. Jorge Rivera (17-7)

The Fighters: Nate Quarry was favored by many win the first season of the Ultimate Fighter.  Unfortunately, during the season Quarry had to drop out of the competition.  He stayed on as a de facto coach for the rest of the season earning the respect of fans and the UFC brass in the process.  After winning his first three fights in the UFC Quarry was rushed into a title shot with Rich Franklin.  If you’ve ever seen an Ultimate Knockouts show you know how the fight ended.  Quarry lost in horrifying fashion.  Quarry managed to bounce back winning 4 of his next 5 fights, with his only loss coming to top contender Damien Maia.

The 38 year old Quarry certainly has his place in the UFC but it’s hard to imagine him getting himself back into title contention.  Quarry has strong wrestling, punching power and is very big for a middleweight.  However he carries his hands awkwardly and it doesn’t lend itself to very good boxing defense (see Franklin, Rich.)  In his last fight he gassed badly in the later rounds and it’s hard not to think that age, wear and tear have finally caught up to the veteran fighter.

Rivera is another UFC veteran.  Also 38, Rivera, made his UFC debut at UFC 44 back in 2003.  Rivera has had an up and down UFC career sporting a 6-5 record.  Rivera has gone 3-1 in his last four fights including a big upset win over Kendall Groove.  On UFC.com Rivera’s strength is listed as “well-rounded”  which is a nice way saying he’s well versed in all disciplines but doesn’t do anything exceptionally well.

Breakdown: Both Rivera and Quarry have their place as “gate-keepers” but I fail to see the logic of matching them up against each other.  However at this point in their careers Quarry is clearly the better fighter.  While he will be vulnerable to Rivera’s KO power Quarry should be able to drag this fight to the ground at will.  While on the ground he said have no problem pounding out Rivera in route to a slow paced TKO win.

Prediction:  Quarry Via TKO Strikes Round 2.

Ross Pearson (10-3) vs. Dennis Siver (15-6)

The Fighters: Pearson won season nine of the Ultimate Fighter defeating fellow Team Rough House member Andre Winner.  Pearson faced Aaron Riley in his second UFC fight and dominated the veteran fighter.  Pearson showed off all his skills against Riley.  Pearson is a Judo Brown belt and a solid wrestler and Thai kick boxer.

Dennis Siver debuted at UFC 70 and went 1-3 before being released.  After winning one fight outside the UFC, Siver returned with a vengeance.  Now on a 3 fight win streak Siver has finished all his opponents and has earned two knockout of the night honors in the process.  Siver has a background in wrestling but it’s his striking skills that have caught the attention of MMA fans.  Siver has solid technical kickboxing but also likes to mix his strikes up.  He’s finished two opponents, in devastating fashion, with spinning back kicks.

Breakdown: An excellent piece of matching making as this fight will surely be explosive while serving a duel purpose as a test of Pearson’s skills.  While Siver and Pearson may be of equal skill on the feet Pearson’s best shot of winning comes on the ground.  In his career Siver has been vulnerable to submissions, in fact of his six losses four have come by submission.

While Siver is on an impressive 3 fight win streak it’s worth noting that his opponents had a career 5-7 UFC record and two of them are no longer with the company.  Look for a Pearson to shoot after several early exchanges and eventually submit Siver.

Prediction:  Pearson Via Arm-Bar Round 3.

I am firmly against Prospects fighting other prospects. I think that doing that fight always ends up with you killing one of the two guys only for him never to return to what he was. However, there is another question that needs answering before we figure out if this particular fight should happen: At what point do prospects become contenders?

You can make the argument that both of these guys have already achieved that contender status. That’s the difference between this fight, and the proposed fight between Jon Jones and Ryan Bader.

Cain Velasquez fought a legend in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and thoroughly dominated him. Hell, he stopped a guy who is known for an iron chin. Dos Santos just knocked out Gabriel Gonzaga in impressive fashion. Moreover, he did so after Gonzaga took him down. Dos Santos shook off a much larger man and got back to his feet before putting him down for good. He answered the questions about his ground game very quickly in this one.

On the other hand, Jones has cemented his spot, but Bader has not. Jones just pounded Brandon Vera into submission and is set in the top five at light heavyweight. On the other hand, Bader is pulling off unimpressive win after unimpressive win. His last fight, he was losing to Keith Jardine before a miracle hook knocked him out in the third round. I know, Keith Jardine was knocked out by a left hook, you are all shocked.

What do you think Jones would do to Jardine? He would eat him alive. He’d greco-roman throw him and throw elbows aimed at putting a hole in Jardine’s beard. That’s what separates Jones and Bader. Jones can dominate lesser opponents, while Bader languishes against sub-par competition.

While Dos Santos and Velasquez don’t share opponents, let’s compare what you think would happen if Velasquez fought Gonzaga. Cain could stop that fight on the feet, but would likely take Gabriel down and own him with his impressive top game. What if Dos Santos fought Chieck Kongo? Dos Santos could take him down, but would likely school Chieck on the feet. Yes, Junior Dos Santos is that good.

So, I’m down for Dos Santos v. Velasquez as the next number one contender fight. Both of these guys have cemented their positions in the division, and while to the victor goes the spoils, the loss won’t crush either of them.

Oh, and while we’re at it, I’ll take Cain via decision.

UFC Fans, Roger Huerta has left the building.

After claiming that he wanted to leave the sport to pursue an acting career after his last fight, Roger Huerta received his UFC formal release this week. That allowed him to negotiate with other companies and he’s landed in Bellator, according to MMA Junkie.

Sources close to the situation confirmed to MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that the popular lightweight received his formal release from the UFC this week, which opened the door to finalize a deal with the upstart promotion.

Bellator has called a video press conference for Monday at 3 p.m. ET that will stream live at Bellator.com.

He’ll be part of an 8-man, multi-event tournament that will pit the winner against last year’s champ and top ten lightweight Eddie Alvarez. For those who are suggesting that Roger Huerta will walk through the competition because of his UFC experience, Don’t be so sure. Fighters like Toby Imada, and Jorge Masvidal are not going to go down without a fight.