Record: 17-13
BCS Record: 1-1

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl- TCU v. Boise State

I get it. You hate the match up. You think it’s a gigantic cop out to pair these two up. You think it’s the BCSs’ maniacal plan to pull the wool over our eyes and not have a non-AQ (automatic qualifier) embarrass a big time school like Utah did to Alabama all year. I’ll try to say this lightly because I do see why someone would think that.

You’re dead wrong.

The thought process is not insane, in fact I giggled a little once the match-up was announced three weeks ago, but it is dead wrong. I know sports fans, especially cynical BCS detractors, hate to hear this phrase but it absolutely applies here-coincidence.

Yes, that’s right. Coincidence. There was no Halderman-like conversation in the parking lot of BCS headquarters. There was no elaborate plan to shut the BCS detractors up (like that would ever happen) and it wasn’t a embarrassment-saving measure. Remember folks, the BCS isn’t the NCAA tournament. There isn’t a committee who decides the match ups nor is this a twelve angry men situation in some underground college football bunker.

The BCS is a computer. It spits out numbers. It doesn’t have agenda’s. It doesn’t care about embaressment. And it sure could give a you-know-what about what you think of it. The logic actually makes a lot of sense. Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU were all undefeated. You had to rank the three undefeated teams from major conferences in front of the two from the WAC and MWC. It’s simple college football logic. How do you determine the order of undefeateds in a ranking situation? Strength of schedule! You cannot make a coherent argument that TCU or Boise State had a tougher schedule then any of those top three teams.

Just can’t do it.

Theirs been talk this week that Nebraska blowing the Big 12 championship locked TCU out of the national title game. That’s untrue. Had Nebraska won, Cinncinatti would have been playing for a title, not TCU. It’s not dumb. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s College Football logic.

Try it sometime.

Now that we’ve stopped whining about how “wrong” the match up is, lets focus on what is the best BCS game this side of Alabama/Texas.

I’ve said all year that TCU is the best non-AQ team in the country and I’m not about to come off that. Not only do they have the number one defense in the country, but the offense is almost just as good. This isn’t the same old “dominant defense, lack luster offense” (or vice-versa) story’s that usually come with non-aq’s. TCU ranks 5th in points scored per game with 40.7, fourth in total yards per game with 469.1, and fifth in rushing yards per game with 257.

The Horned Frogs left no doubt in anyone’s mind this year that they were the real deal. In TCU’s last seven wins, the closest anyone came to beating them was Utah. The final score of that game was 55-28. In fact, you could argue that the two most impressive wins came in the two most important games of the year for TCU, Utah and a 38-7 demolishing of #16 BYU…at BYU. If you question whether this team can handle the big stage, those two games put those doubts to bed.

Offensively, they run the football with the two T’s- Turner and Tucker. Senior Joseph Turner led the club with 732 yards and 11 touchdowns. Matthew Tucker finished with 667 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Although the passing game is not as highly ranked as the defense or the running game, quarterback Andy Dalton is hardly a liability. Dalton threw 22 touchdowns this year and only 5 interceptions. He also ran for more then 500 yards this year, one of four players who have done that for TCU.

I see the Horned Frogs as a shade more complete then Boise State. They boast the number one defense in the country, allowing only 12.4 yards a game. Jerry Hughes is up their with Nebraska’s Suh as one of the most dominant defensive players in the country. Hughes earned All-American honors after his 11 ½ sack 2009.

While Boise State’s defense is nothing to overlook (17 points a game), this is a team defined by offense. Kellen Moore threw for 39 touchdowns this season and only three interceptions. That’s a heck of a ratio. Jeremy Avery ran for over 1000 yards and six touchdowns. Doug Martin had 14 touchdowns. A big loss for the Broncos may be Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with fourteen touchdowns. Pettis has a lower leg fracture, but is a game time decision.

So why am I so confident in a TCU victory?

Dominance. Maybe it’s nit-picking, but with a game this close, you have to nit-pick. Boise State only beat Tulsa by a touchdown and Louisiana Tech by 10. TCU’s close calls came against better teams. Clemson has one of the best offensive players in the country in C.J Spiller and Air Force has a defense that is actually comparable to TCU. When analyzing non-AQ BCS teams, I think you have to look at dominance to make up for the obvious lack of schedule strength. Over the course of the season, TCU was more dominant then Boise State. TCU beat two ranked teams by a combined 58 points. Enough said

In last year’s Poinsettia Bowl match up, TCU held the Bronco offense in check. Kellen Moore had no touchdowns and one interception. The scary part about that? TCU is better this year. I don’t know if Boise State is.

The Pick: TCU