Boise State | The 3rd String Safety

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 14

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 4, 2010, at 4:17 am

Leave your comment

Record: 17-13
BCS Record: 1-1

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl- TCU v. Boise State

I get it. You hate the match up. You think it’s a gigantic cop out to pair these two up. You think it’s the BCSs’ maniacal plan to pull the wool over our eyes and not have a non-AQ (automatic qualifier) embarrass a big time school like Utah did to Alabama all year. I’ll try to say this lightly because I do see why someone would think that.

You’re dead wrong.

The thought process is not insane, in fact I giggled a little once the match-up was announced three weeks ago, but it is dead wrong. I know sports fans, especially cynical BCS detractors, hate to hear this phrase but it absolutely applies here-coincidence.

Yes, that’s right. Coincidence. There was no Halderman-like conversation in the parking lot of BCS headquarters. There was no elaborate plan to shut the BCS detractors up (like that would ever happen) and it wasn’t a embarrassment-saving measure. Remember folks, the BCS isn’t the NCAA tournament. There isn’t a committee who decides the match ups nor is this a twelve angry men situation in some underground college football bunker.

The BCS is a computer. It spits out numbers. It doesn’t have agenda’s. It doesn’t care about embaressment. And it sure could give a you-know-what about what you think of it. The logic actually makes a lot of sense. Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU were all undefeated. You had to rank the three undefeated teams from major conferences in front of the two from the WAC and MWC. It’s simple college football logic. How do you determine the order of undefeateds in a ranking situation? Strength of schedule! You cannot make a coherent argument that TCU or Boise State had a tougher schedule then any of those top three teams.

Just can’t do it.

Theirs been talk this week that Nebraska blowing the Big 12 championship locked TCU out of the national title game. That’s untrue. Had Nebraska won, Cinncinatti would have been playing for a title, not TCU. It’s not dumb. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s College Football logic.

Try it sometime.

Now that we’ve stopped whining about how “wrong” the match up is, lets focus on what is the best BCS game this side of Alabama/Texas.

I’ve said all year that TCU is the best non-AQ team in the country and I’m not about to come off that. Not only do they have the number one defense in the country, but the offense is almost just as good. This isn’t the same old “dominant defense, lack luster offense” (or vice-versa) story’s that usually come with non-aq’s. TCU ranks 5th in points scored per game with 40.7, fourth in total yards per game with 469.1, and fifth in rushing yards per game with 257.

The Horned Frogs left no doubt in anyone’s mind this year that they were the real deal. In TCU’s last seven wins, the closest anyone came to beating them was Utah. The final score of that game was 55-28. In fact, you could argue that the two most impressive wins came in the two most important games of the year for TCU, Utah and a 38-7 demolishing of #16 BYU…at BYU. If you question whether this team can handle the big stage, those two games put those doubts to bed.

Offensively, they run the football with the two T’s- Turner and Tucker. Senior Joseph Turner led the club with 732 yards and 11 touchdowns. Matthew Tucker finished with 667 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Although the passing game is not as highly ranked as the defense or the running game, quarterback Andy Dalton is hardly a liability. Dalton threw 22 touchdowns this year and only 5 interceptions. He also ran for more then 500 yards this year, one of four players who have done that for TCU.

I see the Horned Frogs as a shade more complete then Boise State. They boast the number one defense in the country, allowing only 12.4 yards a game. Jerry Hughes is up their with Nebraska’s Suh as one of the most dominant defensive players in the country. Hughes earned All-American honors after his 11 ½ sack 2009.

While Boise State’s defense is nothing to overlook (17 points a game), this is a team defined by offense. Kellen Moore threw for 39 touchdowns this season and only three interceptions. That’s a heck of a ratio. Jeremy Avery ran for over 1000 yards and six touchdowns. Doug Martin had 14 touchdowns. A big loss for the Broncos may be Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with fourteen touchdowns. Pettis has a lower leg fracture, but is a game time decision.

So why am I so confident in a TCU victory?

Dominance. Maybe it’s nit-picking, but with a game this close, you have to nit-pick. Boise State only beat Tulsa by a touchdown and Louisiana Tech by 10. TCU’s close calls came against better teams. Clemson has one of the best offensive players in the country in C.J Spiller and Air Force has a defense that is actually comparable to TCU. When analyzing non-AQ BCS teams, I think you have to look at dominance to make up for the obvious lack of schedule strength. Over the course of the season, TCU was more dominant then Boise State. TCU beat two ranked teams by a combined 58 points. Enough said

In last year’s Poinsettia Bowl match up, TCU held the Bronco offense in check. Kellen Moore had no touchdowns and one interception. The scary part about that? TCU is better this year. I don’t know if Boise State is.

The Pick: TCU

NCAAF

College Football Week Five Picks

By Jordan Lauterbach

October 3, 2009, at 1:14 am

Leave your comment

Last Week: 16-7

Season: 71-18

#3 Alabama over Kentucky- This is the last of the “easy ones” for the Crimson Tide. After Kentucky, they play Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and LSU. The bye comes after Tennessee. How good is ‘bama? We’re about to find out.

#4 LSU over #18 Georgia

#5 Boise State over U.C Davis

#6 Va.Tech over Duke- Not that beating Duke is a challenge, but I think Va Tech has rediscovered it’s identity after being kicked in the you-know-whats after Darren Evans went down. The key: Don’t let Tyrod Taylor throw.

#9 Ohio State over Indiana- Indiana gave Michigan a scare last weekend. This game won’t be that scary for Bucs fans.

#10 Cinncinatti over Miami (OH)- How high can the Bearcats climb? I mean the strength of schedule argument has to kick in at some point right?. Miami of Ohio doesn’t help that argument.

#11 TCU over Southern Methodist

#12 Houston over UTEP- Biggest surprise of ’09 is not Miami. It’s Houston.

#13 Iowa over Arkansas State- Don’t look now. Iowa may be the class of the Big Ten

#15 Penn State over Illinois- I still don’t know a thing about Penn State. But I do know that Illinois is terrible.

#16 Oregon over Washington State- If Washington State wins, will the Legarrette Blount reinstatement rumors vanish?

#21 Ole Miss over Vanderbilt – Ole Miss has to rebound from that bad Thursday night loss to South Carolina.

#25 Georgia Tech over Mississippi State

Notre Dame over Washington- Clausen appears to be healthier then he was last week. ND will eek out another close one.

Two to Change Plans For

#7 USC over #24 California- All the pressure is on USC if Cal beats Oregon last week. They didn’t and now the roles are reversed. Cal cannot afford to loose this game. USC knows this and will use it to their advantage…. And so goes the biggest “fall from grace” story in 2009. Looks like another year looking up at USC for Cal.

#8 Oklahoma over #17 Miami- Oklahoma need this game more than Miami does. A second loss hurts more in the Big 12 than it does in the weaker A.C.C. Desperation gets the win in this one.

Upset of The Week

Michigan State over #22 Michigan- I know what you’re thinking. “There goes Jordan’s anti-Michigan bias again.” I swear it’s not that. This is Michigan’s first road game of the year, in a hostel environment to boot. I expect Tate the Great to struggle a bit early and Michigan to fall just short.

NCAAF

Week Four College Football Picks

By Jordan Lauterbach

September 25, 2009, at 6:11 pm

Leave your comment

Last Week: 17-5

Season- 55-11

Currently sitting in a motel room on the side of the road in Mifflinville, PA. All set to call tomorrows Bloomsberg/C.W Post matchup. You can hear the game on wcwpsports.com beginning at 11:30am. Hopefully I’ll make it back in time for Notre Dame/ Purdue at 8.

#1 Florida over Kentucky- Kentucky is 2-0, but they haven’t seen anyone quite like the Gators this year. I thought it spoke to how good the Gators are when people were impressed at the way Tennessee played last week. I guess not getting destroyed against this bunch is suddenly an accomplishment… and who said there were no moral victories.

#2 Texas over UTEP

#3 Alabama over Arkansas- Three games in and Ryan Mallet is already getting recognized as one of the top quarterbacks, in terms of arm strength, in the nation. It won’t be enough to beat Alabama, but Arkansas owes Rich Rodriguez a debt of gratitude.

#6 California over Oregon- Cal has to be careful of looking ahead to USC next week.

#7 LSU over Mississippi State

#8 Boise State over Bowling Green

#12 USC over Washington State

#13 Ohio State over Illinois

#14 Cincinnati over Fresno State

#15 TCU over Clemson

#16 Oklahoma State over Grambling State

#18 Florida State over South Florida

#19 BYU over Colorado State

#20 Kansas over Southern Miss

#21 Georgia over Arizona State

#22 North Carolina over Georgia Tech

#23 Michigan over Indiana
#24 Washington over Stanford

#25 Nebraska over La-Lafayette

Notre Dame over Purdue- At this hour, Clausen is expected to play. Armando Allen is iffy. As big as the Michael Floyd injury is (and its huge), any injury to Allen will be huge as well. Allen is quietly having a huge year. He’s stronger, he’s more athletic, and it shows. If he can’t go for any long amount of time, this Notre Dame offense is in a lot of trouble. That being said, assuming Clausen plays well, the Irish will beat Purdue.

2 To Change Plans For

#5 Penn State Over Iowa- We don’t know a lot about Penn State. Sure, they’ve looked real good. Sure, they haven’t allowed more than seven points a game. But who have they played? Do you know anything more about Penn State then you did four weeks ago? I don’t think so. I still think Penn State will win the Big 10, but I’m pumped to see them play an actual game this week.

#9 Miami over #11 Virginia Tech- Isn’t it interesting that both pre-season ACC favorites are hanging on by a string. Miami puts the dagger in Va Tech’s hopes this week.

Upset Of The Week (2-1 this year)

Texas Tech over #17 Houston- Texas Tech played well against Texas last week. I think the bye week came at a bad time for Houston. They were hot, coming off a big win over Oklahoma State, and sat down for a week. I think they come out flat, fall behind early, and never recover.

NCAAF

Week One AP Polls Analysis

By Jordan Lauterbach

September 8, 2009, at 11:17 pm

Leave your comment

The first sets of “real polls” are out.

Here’s the A.P:

1. Florida (56)

2.Texas (2)

3.USC

4.Alabama (2)

5.Oklahoma State

6. Mississippi

7. Penn State

8. Ohio State

9. Brigham Young

10. California

11.LSU

12.Boise State

13.Oklahoma

14.Virginia Tech

15.Georgia Tech

16.TCU

17.Utah

18.Notre Dame

19. North Carolina

20. Miami (FL)

21. Georgia

22. Nebraska

23. Cincinnati

24. Kansas

25.Missouri

A few thoughts:

I think it’s a fair top 25. Not too many surprises. The only issue I have with it is BYU at nine. Now, I understand why a team that gets as big a win as they did jumps up, but I refer to something that Kirk Herbstreit said on ESPN today.

When asked about how he believes polls should be voted on, Herbie said that voters should start with a blank piece of paper and write down who they believe are the 25 best teams in the nation, regardless of what the preseason polls said. Everyone knows that, for the most part, preseason polls are deceiving. With that theory in mind, do you really think that BYU is a top ten team in the nation? It was a great win over Oklahoma, but it did come by one point against a team without its two biggest offensive weapons for the majority of the game. Is BYU better than Cal? Boise State? I don’t think so. I would have put them in the top 15, but not the top 10.

Once again, Notre Dame’s position make a ton of sense. As dominant as Saturday’s win over Nevada was, it still came against Nevada. A win against Michigan this week will put them in the top 15.

Nice to see a Big East team crack the top 25. Despite being a BCS conference, the Big East did not have a team in the preseason poll. Something always seemed a bit odd to me about that.

NCAAF

Opening Night Picks

By Jordan Lauterbach

September 3, 2009, at 3:26 am

2 people had their say - chime in!

The wait is finally over. College football starts tonight!

Full picks column coming by Friday night, but here are some quick ones for opening night.

South Carolina vs. N.C State – South Carolina won 34-0 last year. Expect different things this year. South Carolina has a young team with some uncertainty at the quarterback position. NC State’s Russell Wilson threw only one interception last season and is ready to take that next step. If Wilson improves on his 54% completion percentage, he should be able to do that. Also, don’t think 34-0 hasn’t been thrown around a lot this week. Players have pride.

The Pick: NC State

North Texas vs. Ball State – After a season in which he ran for over 1700 yards, Ball State’s Miqual Lewis is the leading returning rusher in the country. Look for him to have a big game

The Pick: Ball State

Utah State vs. Utah – Utah needs every game in what should be a fascinating MWC. They have some uncertainty at quarterback now that Corbin Louks has moved on to Nevada. The jury was still out on whether Louks would win the job anyway, but now Utah is looking at even less experience at quarterback. I think this will hurt them late in the year when they play TCU. However, it won’t make much of a difference tonight.

The Pick: Utah

Oregon vs. Boise State – The game of the night, by far. Maybe the game of the weekend (it’s at least top three). It’s rare that you can say this on the season’s opening night, but this is a really important game. Boise State needs to go undefeated to have a shot at the BCS. Oregon is, by far, the toughest game on the schedule. Kellen Moore had a great season for the Broncos last year and will be just as good, if not better, this season. This will be the first taste of how he meshes with his new group of top receivers (three of Moore’s go to guys in ‘08 are gone for ‘09).

Call me crazy if you’d like, but I think Oregon is overrated. The defense is rebuilding. The head coach, while from inside the program, is new. LeGarrette Blount is really good, but I think the defense will struggle a lot early. Going on the road against the high powered Broncos spells bad news.

The Pick: Boise State

NCAAF

College Football ‘09: Oregon Ducks

By Jordan Lauterbach

August 22, 2009, at 3:21 am

4 people had their say - chime in!

For the next few weeks our very own Jordan Lauterbach will be previewing the upcoming 2009 College Football season. Each day, he will be posting a new preview so be sure to check in everyday.

Last Season: 10-3, 7-2,beat Oklahoma State in the Pacific Life Bowl

Coaches Poll: 14

On top of trying to patch up a defense that lost some key starters, the Oregon Ducks are in the process of learning the ins and outs of a new head coach. Sure, the face is familiar. After all, Chip Kelly was the offensive coordinator under the retired Mike Bellotti, but a coach always has a new aura about him when he finally gains full control. Just because you can coordinate an offense, doesn’t mean you have the chops to run the whole show. See Turner, Norv.

Chief among Kelly’s concerns will be the defense he is charged with rebuilding. Granted, there is no grand Oregon defensive tradition to live up to. Last year, the Ducks allowed over 28 points and 389 yards per game. Theoretically, rebuilding to what the Ducks were will not be all that difficult. In fact, some would say that Kelly is charged with not only rebuilding the defense, but taking it to levels unseen in recent year.

Regardless, any time you lose most of the defensive core, their will be some sort of adjustment. The biggest losses come on the defensive line. Will Tukuafu is the only starter returning. Nick Reed is gone. Reed was a outstanding pass rusher and first team all conference player. Either Kenny Rowe or junior college transfer Zac Clark will be filling Reed’s spot. But can Oregon count on either to be nearly as dominant as Reed? That’s a major question.

Zac Clark is not the only junior college player that the Oregon defense will be counting on this season. Terrence Montgomery will also have a big role at the tackle position.

The linebacker position is where the least amount of hurt is felt. Both Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews are returning.

In the secondary, corner Walter Thurmand and T.J Ward return. Thurmand is one of the better corners in the conference and must show it this year. Jarius Byrd and Patrick Chung are both huge losses for the secondary. Marvin Johnson is expected to replace Chung, but it would be hard to imagine his production being anything less than a major downgrade in his first season taking over for Chung.

Rebuilding the defense will be quite a task for Chip Kelly. A task that could potentially mean a missed opportunity in a Pac-10 that is as “wide open” (relative term) as it’s been in years.

One position where question marks are not a story is quarterback. Jeremiah Masoli, while not the most efficient passer in the country, is more then apt to run the spread. Masoli amassed just under sixty yards a game with his legs last year.

Despite losing Terrance Scott, the receiving core has a chance to be solid. Jeff Maehl is the returning leader. Maehl caught 39 passes for 421 yards and five touchdowns. He is joined by Jamere Holland and two promising junior college transfers. One of those transfers, Tyrece Gaines was the number one junior college receiver last year. Don’t sleep on Holland either. The junior is a transfer from USC with blazing speed. He once ran a 10.36 100-meter.

But the most exciting player on the Duck offense is running back LeGarrette Blount. Blount ran for just over 1000 yards last year and found the end zone 17 times. However, two interesting storylines surround Blount.

First, the loss of his rushing partner. How much will Jeremiah Johnson’s absence affect Blount? He will now be the main back.

Second, how will this offensive line hold up? It took a big hit after last season when Max Unger and Fenuki Tupou left town.

While I think Blount and the rest of this offense will be fine, the line is a question mark worth keeping an eye on.

3 Games To Watch

September 3rd- @ Boise State- A tough conference schedule doesn’t see any relief from this out of conference match up. Boise State topped the Ducks last season and will need every game to be serious BCS contenders again. I’m not sure that the Duck defense will be ready for the Bronco offense.

September 19th- Utah- It’s hard to pick just three games off this schedule, but Utah could realistically see Oregon drop their second game of the season before they get to conference play. Uh-oh

September 26- California- I picked this as my third because the USC game may not matter all that much if Oregon drops a few early. They may need this game desperately to stay in contention for anything….and it’s not even October yet.

Avatars by Sterling Adventures

Calendar

Blog Networks

Bowl Mania Day 14

College Football Week Five Picks

Week Four College Football Picks

Week One AP Polls Analysis

College Football ‘09: Oregon Ducks

Twitter Updates

Recent Posts

Login