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By Jason Comack  February 17, 2010, at 1:31 pm  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1; #3 Heavyweight) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0; #6 Heavyweight)
The Fighters: Nogueira is one of the few PRIDE vets who was able to successfully transition to the UFC. He won his first two UFC fights, including a win over Tim Sylvia for the UFC title. Since he’s gone 1-1 losing to Frank Mir and beating Randy Couture.
In his UFC stint ‘Nog has been oft-injured. More particularly he’s battled staph infections during his entire UFC tenure. ‘Nog is never one to make excuses but, after the Mir loss it was revealed that he had spent a ton of time in the hospital battling a bad staph infection. It’s hard to argue that the staph didn’t affect his performance in that fight. Not only was he finished for the first time in his illustrious career but he looked old and more then a step slow. Many, myself included, wondered if wear and tear had finally caught up to ‘Nog. However, in his win against Couture he proved that he still has a ton left in the tank. His boxing was as crisp as ever and he showcased his world class ground skills.
Cain Velasquez may be the fastest rising heavyweight prospect the sport has ever seen. He’s 5-0 in the UFC, but more importantly he’s looked better every fight. He proved against Cheick Kongo that he could win a three round war as well as take a punch. As Jordan Breen would say “the man has a great beard.” Ben Rothwell was suppose to be another step up in competition for Velasquez. However, Velasquez took the much bigger and experienced Rothwell down at will and made him look like an amateur. Every test that has been presented to Velasquez he has passed with flying colors.
Breakdown: Odds makers have this fight as a Pick ‘Em and it’s hard to disagree. ‘Nog has great boxing and will have a significant advantage when the fight is standing but, as we saw in the Kongo fight Velasquez isn’t easy to drop. Velasquez will want to shoot early and often and should have no problem getting ‘Nog to the ground. The key question is; will Velasquez be able to control the action on the ground? Velasquez is relentless and can push the pace like no other heavyweight in the UFC can but he’s also never fought a fighter of ‘Nog’s caliber on the ground. ‘Nog has a knack for taking a pounding, but still finding the perfect opportunity to sweep or submit. Even when it looks like he’s on the brink of defeat he’s not, just ask Bob Sapp.
Velasquez is so hyper active on the ground it could end up being reckless. Look for a classic ‘Nog performance as he catches the wrestler off guard with a sweep followed by a textbook submission.
Prediction: Nogueira via Arm-Bar Round 3
Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1) vs. Michael Bisping (18-2)
The Fighters: Annnnnd cue “Sandstorm!”
Ok, you can put the glow sticks away now.
Unlike his PRIDE counterpart, Nogueira, Silva did not find immediate success upon entering the UFC. In fact The Axe Murderer is only 1-3 in the UFC (though you can make a sound argument that he beat Rich Franklin.) His UFC run has certainly been a disappointment but there’s a lot of reasons to think that he can still turn his career around. Silva is making his debut at middleweight, dropping from light heavyweight. Silva was always on the small side for a 205 pounder and has said he feels much quicker since dropping the weight. Silva also underwent facial surgery. He got his mangled nose repaired and a ton of scar tissue removed. While the gains of such surgery appear superficial on the surface they are not. The scar tissue left Silva’s face much more susceptible to cuts, also Silva said the surgery on his nose has helped his breathing tremendously.
Silva certainly earned the nickname The Axe Murderer. His style is to come straight at you at overwhelm you with strikes and knees from the clinch. The underrated aspects of Silvas game are his wresting, more then adequate, and his jiu-jitsu. He never uses either offensively but he’s shown skill in both areas when he’s been forced to.
Bisping is the brash winner of The Ultimate Fighter. I’ve long considered Bisping an overrated fighter whose record was inflated by fighting low level talent. After his decisive loss to Dan Handerson I found myself vindicated. However, in his win over Dennis Kang, Bisping proved the doubters wrong and showed he still has a lot of talent. What impressed me most about Bisping in the Kang fight was his jiu-jitsu. Kang has a tight ground game and Bisping did a great job using his hips to keep Kang off balance. In the later rounds he showed improved wrestling as he dropped Kang with ease.
With an 8-2 UFC record a win over Silva would put Bisping in or around the top 10 and potentially only one or two fights away from a title shot.
Breakdown: Bisping in a lot of ways is similar to Forrest Griffin. He’s tough and he’s well rounded but he doesn’t have one particular skill that’s exceptional, and at the end of the day that can only get you so far. Bisping should look to keep Silva at a distance with his jab and leg kicks, Silva on the other is going to try to showcase his trademark combination of explosiveness and violence and bum rush Bisping with strikes.
Bisping will find himself overwhelmed in the striking game just like he did against Dan Henderson, who really is just a one trick pony. Bisping could work for take-downs but Rich Franklin struggled to take Silva down and Silva’s take down defense should only be better at a lighter weight class.
Prediction: Silva via TKO Round 2
Joe Stevenson (31-10) vs. George Sotiropoulos (11-2)
The Fighters: The hometown hero Sotiropoulos, is a very well rounded fighter. He’s a BJJ Black Belt but he also has an amateur boxing background, in fact in 2004 he won a Victoran State Amateur boxing tournament. Sotiropoulos is 11-2 overall and 4-0 in the UFC. His only two losses are a DQ loss to Shinya Aoki and a split decision loss very early in his career. Sotiropoulos competed on the Ultimate Fighter and made it to the semi-finals before losing in controversial fashion. Sotiropoulos has never been finished in his professional career. As a former welterweight Sotiropoulos is a very large lightweight and is a handful to try to take down. Sotiropoulos is similar stylistically to Paulo Filho. He’s incredibly methodical as he tightly transitions from position to position.
To say Stevenson is veteran would be an understatement. Stevenson fought Jens Pulver when he was only 17 years old! Stevenson is only 27 years old but already has 41 pro bouts on his record. Like Sotiropoulos, Stevenson moved from welterweight to lightweight. Stevenson won his first four fights as a lightweight before getting a shot at the UFC title against B.J Penn. Since losing to Penn it’s been a mixed bag for Stevenson. He looked good against Diaz and Fisher but not so good against Florian and Sanchez.
Stevenson recently teamed up with Greg Jackson and it’s done wonders for his career. Stevenson has gone back to his roots, his wrestling and top game, and is riding a two fight win streak.
Breakdown: Much like ‘Nog vs. Velasquez the question in this fight is; what happens when Stevenson gets Sotiropoulos down. Sotiropoulos has the skills to sweep or submit Joe Daddy. However, what I see being the underrated aspect of this fight is Sotiropoulos boxing. He hasn’t showcased it a ton in his UFC career but you can tell he has actual boxing technique, something we don’t get to see in the UFC often. Joe Daddy might be able to take Sotiropoulos down but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him down.
Prediction: Sotiropoulos Via Split Decision
Keith Jardine (15-6-1) vs. Ryan Bader (10-0)
The Fighters: Expect the word “unorthodox” to be used to describe Keith Jardine roughly 8,000 times this fight. The former Ultimate Fighter contestant began his career at heavyweight before settling in at 205. Jardine is 6-5 in the UFC but has faced top competition for most of the past three years. Jardine holds wins over contenders Brandon Vera, Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell. Jardine is well rounded, trains at a great camp (Greg Jackson) and has a unorthodox (Ding!) striking style that keeps opponents off guard. He likes to use his leg kicks, some of the best in the sport, and his jab to keep distance from opponents.
Ryan “Darth” Bader won his season of The Ultimate Fighter. When watching him on TUF you got the sense that not only did he have the raw skills to be a TUF champ but a UFC champ one day. A two time All-American wrestler at Arizona State University and a three-time PAC 10 Champion, Baders 120 wins ranks him 8th on the all-time wins list for ASU. Bader was college teammates with current UFC competitors Cain Velasquez and C.B. Dollaway. Bader is 3-0 in the UFC.
Breakdown: Where Bader struggles is on his feet. He has tremendous power but his striking arsenal is limited to a single Dan Henderson style overhand right. The UFC has protected him in the stand up game by feeding him grapplers and weaker wrestlers early in his career (Magalhaes, Marerro, Schafer.) That’s why Jardine is a bigger test then people realize. How’s Bader going to react to leg kicks? Will he check them properly or are we heading for Robbie Lawler territory (if you underestimate the importance of leg kicks look no further then Griffin/Rampage where Forrest essentially won a title because of them.) How will Bader react if he gets tagged? These things are unknowns with Bader. As for Jardine we’ve seen that he’s most vulnerable when facing a striker with K.O power. Of his five losses three came within the first minutes of the fight (W. Silva, T. Silva, Alexander.) Where Jardine excels is when he’s forced to wrestle and scramble.
Bader is a great wrestler and should be able to take Jardine down at will but even Rampage Jackson had trouble holding Jardine down for three rounds.
Prediction: Jardine via TKO Round 3
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (25-7-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-7)
The Fighters: Wild Boys…Wild Boys….Wild Boys!
It’s been a quick and sudden fall for Cro-Cop who was once unanimously considered the third best heavyweight in the world. The one time PRIDE star has found almost no success in the Octagon. He’s 2-3 in the cage but his wins have been over meek competition (Eddie Sanchez and Mastapha-Al-Turk.) I’ve written about Mirko’s struggles at length. Mirko would blame his struggles on the lack of a proper training regimen and a mental block in the Octagon, I would simply blame them on age. PRIDE fighters tend to age in dog years and all those years of tournament fighting seem to have caught up to him.
Ben Rothwell came into the UFC with a fair amount of hype. The 28 year old was considered a borderline top 10 heavyweight and he racked up an impressive record fighting in the now defunct IFL. Somehow the UFC had always eluded him. Rothwell’s UFC debut didn’t go as planned as he was manhandled by Cain Velasquez.
Breakdown: Cro-Cop is on the small side for a heavyweight and relies on his kickboxing. In fact, Cro-Cop has basically made a career off of jab-head kick. Rothwell is a monster of a man, tipping the scales at 260 plus. Rothwell also relies on his kick boxing but he doesn’t have the same technical acumen as Cro-Cop. Rothwell is a mauler and brawler, not a counter puncher. That fact should bode well for Mirko.
Prediction: Cro Cop via KO, Head Kick, Round 1
…Hey we all can dream.
For More UFC 110 Coverage:
UFC 110 Undercard Predictions
UFC 110 Walkout Shirts from the 3rd String Store!
By Anthony De Franco December 10, 2009, at 3:54 pm Kevin Burns v. T.J. Grant
Burns is most notable for poking Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in the eye, and then getting a win over him, only for Johnson to head kick him and nearly end his life in the rematch. He is 2-2 in the UFC, but has lost two in a row and desperately needs a win. He has good BJJ and enough stand-up to survive.
Grant is 1-1 in the UFC after losing to “The Stun Gun” Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 100. He’s a BJJ ace, and most of his wins come via submission. Grant beat Ryo Chonan via split decision in his first UFC fight, so he really needs a win, and an impressive one to gain some recognition in the eyes of the UFC brass.
Prediction: Grant via submission
DaMarques Johnson v. Edgar Garcia
Johnson was the runner-up of The Ultimate Fighter 9, losing to James Wilks in the finale. He was supposed to make his non-TUF debut on UFC 105, but his fight with Peter Sobotta was canceled due to a military commitent for Sobotta. Instead, he’ll make his debut on 107. He’s got a good all around game, and a record full of wins by every possible outcome.
Garcia is another holdover from the WEC welterweight division, and was 1-0 before coming over to the UFC. In his debut, he lost to Brad Blackburn on the TUF 9 finale via split decision. He is exclusively a stand-up fighter, with just enough wrestling to stand on his feet.
Prediction: Johnson via sumbission
Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares
Nothing like a good battle between two Brazilian guys. Palhares is 2-1 in his UFC career, and his loss in to Dan Henderson, which is not a bad loss to have on your record. He’s a BJJ ace out of American Top Team. Almost all of his wins are via submission, and I’m sure that the gameplan in this one is going to be takedown, pass guard, submit.
Linhares is no slouch on the ground, though. He’s a 2nd degree black belt himself. The difference between the two is that Linhares has solid stand-up as well, as he’s won more than a few fights on the feet. He’s making his UFC debut, but has fought on the big stage before in organizations like M-1 Global, Affliction, and Shooto. His plan in this fight should be to stay on the feet, but it’s certianly not over if it goes to the ground.
Prediction: Linhares via TKO
Johny Hendricks v. Ricardo Funch
Hendricks is coming off a win over Amir Saddollah at UFC 101 where he finished it in just 29 seconds. He hit Amir flush, and many people thought it was an early stoppage. That doesn’t change the fact that he is 6-0, and has shown good power striking to go with great wrestling. After all, he is a former member of the Oklahoma State wrestling dynasty, where he was a 4-time All-American. He was a member of the WEC and was brought over after Zuffa bought the company.
Funch is making his UFC debut. He is 7-0 in his career, and has shown the ability to fight both on the feet and on the ground. He trains with UFC heavyweight Gabriel Gonzaga and Paulo Filho at Team Link, so you know that he has a pretty good camp. Something to look at during this fight is Funch’s guard against the takedowns of Hendricks. When Hendricks is in the guard of Funch, can Funch mount an offense? Let’s just say this: His only submission victory was a rear naked choke, not a more technical submission out of the guard.
Prediction: Hendricks via TKO
Matt Wiman v. Shane Nelson
Wiman is coming off two consecutive losses against Sam Stout (by controversial split decision) and Jim Miller and is 4-3 total in the UFC. He is a wrestler with some standup ability, but there is no doubt what he wants to do when he gets in the cage.
Nelson is best remembered as Junie Browning’s sidekick from The Ultimate Fighter. Since coming off the show, he 2-1 in the UFC, having defeated George Roop and splitting two with Aaron Riley. In the second Riley fight, he was thoroughly dominated throughout the fight, and really looked bad. He comes from B.J. Penn’s camp in Hilo, Hawaii, which means that you know that the BJJ is good. That’s really an underrated camp with Penn, Kendall Grove, Nelson and Troy Mandaloniz. However, he did really struggle with his wrestling against Riley, and would really need to improve if he wants to win against Wiman.
Prediction: Wiman via TKO
Alan Belcher v. Wilson Gouveia
HOW IS THIS FIGHT ON THE UNDERCARD BUT BUENTELLO AND STRUVE IS ON THE MAIN!???
Now, that my panic attack is over, this is a damn good fight that no one is going to get to see. Belcher is coming off his fight against Sexy-yama at UFC 100 where he was robbed of a decision. Belcher is a really solid fighter in a terrible middleweight division. He has good standup and a decent enough ground game. His record in the UFC is a very mediocre 5-4, but he really has shown a lot in his past few fights. With a win here, I would be interested to see him fight a top ten middleweight.
Gouveia is 6-3 in the UFC, and is 2-2 since moving to 185. He is yet another BJJ ace from American Top Team, but has enough stand up to survive most fights. He hasn’t fought since February when he lost to top contender Nate Marquardt, as he had to pull out of his previous fight with back injuries. It’s something to watch, as we all know that back injuries have a tendency to linger.
I worry about Gouveia standing on his feet, and if Belcher can keep it there, I really like him to win.
Prediction: Belcher via Unanimous Decision
By Anthony De Franco November 19, 2009, at 4:56 pm George Sotiropoulos v. Jason Dent
Love Sotiropoulos. He’s a huge lightweight with the kind of BJJ that can end fights quickly. He’s grown a lot as since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter. He’s got three wins in the UFC but none of them are over anyone with a name. The best of them in the ultra-lanky lightweight George Roop.
Dent is a TUF 9 alumni who has in a win in his one fight since. He’s another BJJ guy with 15 of his 19 career wins coming by submission. He had a previous stint in the UFC, and he lost to Gleison Tibau and Roger Huerta before being cut.
In what promises to be a technical, BJJ battle, I’ll take the guy who has more potential.
Prediction: Sotiropoulos via unanimous decision
Caol Uno v. Fabricio Camoes
How the mighty have fallen. Uno went from his famous wars with B.J. Penn to being on the undercard. In his comeback at UFC 99, he lost a fight he simply should not have against Spencer Fisher. Before that, he lost a fight in Japan against Shinya Aoki. Is Uno done? He 42 total fights under his belt, which is more than veterans like Randy Couture. There’s a possibility that the battle wounds have just caught up with him.
Camoes is a UFC newcomer. He’s 10-4 in his MMA career, but lacks any big wins. He’s a second degree black belt under Royler Gracie, so you know that his BJJ is solid. Most of his wins come by submission, which you’d figure. He’s walking into a really crowded 155 division, and will have impress right away to move up the ranks.
Prediction: Uno via TKO
Brock Larson v. Brian Foster
Larson is a Minnesota Mixed Martial Arts product that we praised on this site, so needless to say that he lost his last fight. He’s 26-3 in his career and he called for him to get more respect before he lost to solid up and comer in Mike Pierce. He’s a very strong wrestler with a background in Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu, which is a combination of BJJ and Judo. A former WEC fighter, he’s 2-1 since coming over to the UFC and will look to continue to use his all around game to climb in the rankings.
Foster is from the HIT Squad camp that Matt Hughes runs. Foster lost his first UFC fight in really bizarre fashion. He lost to Ricky Story via Arm Triangle, but he actually defended the move correctly. When you are in an arm triangle, you are taught to keep your opponent inside of your guard. That keeps him from getting any kind of leverage. Well, Story didn’t need any leverage to choke to out Foster. When you lose in such a strange way, you have to prove that the last one was a fluke.
Prediction: Larson via Submission
Paulo Thiago v. Jacob Volkmann
Thiago’s on this undercard too, huh? It wasn’t too long ago that he knocked out Josh Koscheck, right? Since then he lost a decision to Jon Fitch at the swing fight of UFC 100, and now he’s been banished to the undercard. He’s only loss is the one to Fitch, and he still has a bunch of potential.
Volkmann is making his UFC debut, but has big fight experience as his last bout was on ESPN’s Bellator Fighting Championship. He’s 10-0, and a very hot prospect. Another Minnesota Mixed Martial Arts project, he’s got great BJJ, and a decent all around game. Side note: His nickname is Christmas. Not kidding.
I’m just pretty sure that this fight is designed for Thiago not to lose.
Prediction: Thiago via unanimous decision
Kendall Grove v. Jake Rosholt
Is there more maddening fighter in the UFC than Kendall Grove? He shows potential that makes you jump out of your seat sometimes, and other times you think that he just flat out sucks. Since TUF 3, he’s won three in a row, lost two in a row, then won two more, then lost to Ricardo Almeida, which isn’t that bad. I still think that he is the best fighter that he has ever been. His muay thai causes problems for just about anyone because of his length. On the ground, he’s not a real pro, but he’s better than most.
Rosholt is another member of Oklahoma State wrestling dynasty that has made it’s way over to the UFC from the WEC. He’s 1-1 in the UFC since coming over. His loss was to an underrated Dan Miller, but his win was over Chris Leben, and there were rumors that Leben had fallen into drug use again and had not trained for the fight at all. Rosholt will likely try to take Grove down, and if he does the question becomes can he possibly stay out of Grove submissions.
In a word: Nope.
Prediction: Grove via submission
Marcus Davis v. Ben Saunders
Mark my words: This will be the most exciting fight on the card.
Davis is a former boxer that has made himself a really nice career in MMA. Since appearing on TUF, He’s 8-2, and his losses are to Mike Swick and Dan Hardy. In the Hardy fight, there is an argument to be made that Davis actually should have won a split over Hardy. If he did, he probably gets a rematch with Swick, and maybe we’re talking about him taking on GSP. He’s not just a good boxer, but he’s got good muay thai, and a good enough ground game to get back to his feet.
Saunders is also a muay thai practitioner with excellent stand-up. He’s shown a propensity to bang, and was even talking smack to Mike Swick before Swick put him down for good. He’s 7-1-2 in his career, and 3-1 in the UFC. I think that Saunders is a future contender, but this not going to be his fight.
Prediction: Davis via TKO
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By Anthony De Franco November 12, 2009, at 1:49 pm Andre Winner v. Rolando Delgado
Wasn’t Delgado going by Roli until like three days ago? If you don’t remember him, he was the guy on the Mir v. Nog season of The Ultimate Fighter whom was constantly questioned about his BJJ black belt. He’s 1-1 since joining the UFC and seems to be one of these guys who they like putting on cards overseas. His last fight was a loss to Paul Kelly in Germany. He features great BJJ, and improving standup. My biggest question about him is his strength and chin, as he has a really slight frame.
Winner was the runner up of the US v. UK TUF season. He’s 0-1 in the UFC, as he lost to Ross Pearson at the Finale. I’m curious to see more of winner. His record indicates a strong submission background, as he’s got three submission victories. My only concern about him is a lack of ability to finish, as he has a ton of decision victories.
While Delgado is a nice fighter, I think Winner has a better all-around game, and more potential.
Prediction: Winner via Decision
Alexander Gustaffson v. Jared Hamman
Gustaffson is making his UFC debut out of Stockholm, Sweeden. He is a wrestler/boxer with an 8-0 record. Six of those wins have come by knockout, indicating that he has some pretty sick power. Besides, that I have to admit that I don’t know much about the Sweedish MMA scene, and none of his opponents are exactly names.
Hamman is also making his UFC debut but is American. His best win was a KO victory over Travis Wiuff in 2007. He’s a Strikeforce veteran, meaning he has a bunch more “big fight” experience than the swede. He’s 10-1, and avenged his only loss to Poai Suganuma. The first fight ended with Hamman being knocked out with a flying knee, in the second fight, he knocked Suganuma out with punches.
When in doubt, take the veteran.
Prediction: Hamman via TKO
Paul Kelly v. Dennis Siver
What’s an England card without Paul Kelly? The British brawler is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss is against Marcus Davis, and it’s never a bad thing to lose to The Irish Hand Grenade. Kelly wants to keep every fight on the feet, but has been grinding out some decisions. He’s the hometown favorite, that’s for sure.
His opponent is Dennis Siver, who is 3-3 in the UFC, and another European staple for the company. He’s famous for his spinning back kick KO of Nate Mohr at UFC 93. He’s 2-0 his coming back from the nether regions of the MMA universe. He’s got a pretty good ground game to go with top notch kickboxing.
I’ll take the German to upset the British favorite.
Prediction: Siver via submission
Nick Osipczak v. Matt Riddle
Osipczak is another fighter off the TUF 9 cast. He beat American Frank Lester at the finale, and likely earned himself another fight with the victory. He’ll be the hometown favorite against the American as usual. He’s a practicioner of Shaolin-Kung Fu. Let’s make something clear: He’s not GSP, who has combined his Karate with other skills to make himself a more dangerous fighter. He’s just a Shaolin kung-fu guy. Not good.
Riddle on the other hand has as much potential as any fighter in the UFC. He debuted as the guy who lost to Tim Credeur on TUF 8 with terrible coach Rampage Jackson. Riddle got on the show by breaking the jaw of Serra Fight Team fighter Dan Simmler, but lost his first fight. He was 21 at the time.
Since then, Riddle has become a scalding hot prospect. He has great wrestling, and th ekind of knockout power that few people posses. IF he reaches his ceiling, He could easily follow the Dan Henderson archetype to success. Riddle is looking to make it four in a row in Britain, and I think that he will.
Prediction: Riddle via KO
Terry Etim v. Shannon Gugerty
Etim is 4-2 in the UFC, with wins over Sam Stout and Justin Buchholz on his record. Etim is another British favorite. He’s got an all-around game including some pretty good Muay Thai, and a really ground game. He has nine submission victories to his credit, and two submission of the night awards as well.
Gugerty is 2-1 in the UFC against some pretty mediocre competition. His best win is against Spencer Fisher, who’s ground game looks like a fish out of water. He has a great submission background as well, with eight of his 12 career victories coming by submission.
If the ground games cancel each other out, I like Etim’s muay thai to win the standup war.
Prediction: Etim via TKO
Paul Taylor v. John Hathaway
Taylor is 3-3 in the UFC and is most noted for his war with Paul Kelly at UFC 80. He has three fight of the night awards under his belt, and even if he doesn’t win, he’ll have a place in the UFC because he garners exciting fights with an aggressive style. While he has some submission wins, he most known for his standup ability with five career KO victories.
Hathaway is also British, making this the only fight on the card that features Brit on Brit violence. Hathaway is 2-0 in the UFC, with two european victories to his credit. Also a standup fighter, expect a ton of action in this fight, and eitheir fighter could score a clean shot and a KO.
Prediction: Hathaway via TKO
By Jason Comack September 19, 2009, at 3:56 pm So now that BetUS.com is an advertiser on 3rd String Safety I figured I would check out their odds. I found some very interesting bets for UFC 103 tonight.
1) U.F.C. Props – Franklin/Belfort – Belfort wins by Submission +900 for Fight Outcome
Why would I bet on Belfort beating Franklin by Submission? Belfort has underrated Ju-jitsu. Yes, he has ridiculously fast hands and will look to keep this fight standing but what if he stuns Franklin with a punch. Is it that improbable that he could finish him by submission? Remember that Belfort is a BJJ Black Belt under Carlson Gracie and Franklin did almost get Kimuraed by Yushin Okami.
I’ll admit a Belfort submission is an unlikely way for this fight to end but 9-1 odds seem kinda crazy.
2) U.F.C. UFC 103 - Cole Miller +105 for Fight Lines
Miller is a dog, albeit slight. I love Millers long lanky frame for this weight class. His ju-jitsu is outstanding as he submitted Jorge Gurgel by triangle choke. I was on the fence about this fight but two things swayed me. 1) Escudero hasn’t beaten anyone. Woohoo, he beat Nover, the most over hyped fighter in recent memory. 2) He didn’t make weight and looked totally dead at the weigh in. Escudero isn’t a particularly big 155 pounder so he just must be out of shape.
Miller Submission Round 3
3) U.F.C. UFC 103 - Tomasz Drwal -120 for Fight Lines
McFedries is 8-5 and 4-4 in the UFC why is this line so close? He’s a one dimensional stand up fighter with a suspect chin. He’s not technical by any means he just has naturally heavy hands. Drawl, 16-2, is younger, more athletic, more technically sound and has fought better competition at a higher weight class.
Someones getting KO’d in this one and it’s going to be McFedries.
4) U.F.C. UFC 103 – Rafael dos Anjos -130 for Fight Lines
Why is Rob Emerson still around? I get that he’s 2-1 in the UFC but he’s 9-7 overall and is pretty one dimensional. He has OK stand up and OK take down defense but that’s about it. Dos Anjos has faced better competition and despite being 0-2 in the UFC has serious skills. He was beating Jeremy Stephens until he was caught with an uppercut and went the distance with Tyson Griffin.
I like dos Anjos by submission.
5) U.F.C. Props – Griffin/Franca – Griffin wins by KO, TKO or DQ +500 for Fight Outcome
A silly bet? Yes and no. Griffin is going to win this fight lets start there. He’s much better then Franca and Franca is out of shape (159 catch-weight.) Now betting on a Griffin KO might be foolish because his last seven fights have gone the distance but lets think this through. Griffin is a young fighter, 25, who is constantly improving (every fight his hands get better and better.) Franca isn’t much of a boxer and only relies on his BJJ. There’s a solid chance Griffin looks to keep this fight standing to stay away from Francas ground game. There’s also a solid chance if/when Griffin takes Franca down he can finish the fight via TKO Ground and Pound.
I like this bet a whole lot.
By Anthony De Franco September 18, 2009, at 3:09 am Tyson Griffin v. Hermes Franca
This isn’t going to be all that much of a fight. Griffin has emerged as one of the top fighters in the 155 division. He’s likely right outside the top five, and this win should getting him some talk about getting a top-3 opponent. He’s 6-2 in the UFC with wins over Clay Guida, Marcus Aurelio, and Gleison Tibau. Griffin is a bit small for 155, but he possess some excellent tools with which to work. He has some really nice wrestling, and pretty solid standup as well. Add the fact that he trains with a pretty solid team in Xtreme Couture and you have the recipe for one hell of a fighter.
I’ve always thought that Franca was one of the more overrated 155ers. This BJJ Black Belt is 5-2 in the UFC, but doesn’t have any real great wins under his belt. His best win is probably over Nate Diaz. He’s pretty good on the ground and has some decent standup, but nothing about him really jumps off the page.
As long as Griffin can stay out of a submission, expect him to ground and pound his way to a win.
Prediction: Griffin via Unanimous Decision
Josh Koscheck v. Frank Trigg
If there is one fight on this card that isn’t getting enough attention, it’s probably this one. The return of Frank Trigg is not being pushed as the storyline that it should be. Trigg was a mainstay in the early days of the UFC and now is back after burning and then rebuilding his bridges with Dana White. Trigg is a well balanced fighter that was 2-3 in his previous UFC stint, but all of those losses came to Matt Hughes (2) and Georges St. Pierre. Those are pretty much “quality” losses.
He’ll be going against Josh Koscheck, who is coming off a loss of his own to Paulo Thiago. After fighting three times in six months, Koscheck took eight months off before getting back into the ring on Saturday. We all know the deal with Koscheck. He is a world class wrestler who has ever improving standup due to his training at the American Kickboxing Academy. He’s 10-4 in the UFC, which is a damn good mark.
Koscheck does just about everything Trigg does better than Trigg does it.
Prediction: Koscheck via Unanimous Decision
Martin Kampmann v. Paul Daley
Ugh. This fight was so much better when Kampmann and Mike Swick. Swick sustained a concussion late in his training and is unable to fight. Instead, we get Paul Daley who is an IFL veteran making his UFC debut. Daley is of british decent and is a muay thai striker by nature. Daley’s last fight was supposed to be against Long Island’s own Jay Hieron, but was scrapped when Affliction folded.
Kampmann’s last fight was his trademark win by split decision over Carlos Condit. While I am a reasonable man, there is no way that anyone will ever convince me that Kampmann actually won that fight. He is 6-1 in the UFC with wins over Jorge Rivera, Thales Leites and Drew McFedries. He is also a a striker, which means that we will see these two guys slug it out on the feet for most of the fight.
It’s really a shame this fight doesn’t include Swick.
Prediction: Kampmann via TKO
Mirko Cro Cop v. Junior Dos Santos
This fight has become a point of contention between Jason and I. Jason keeps insisting that the “real Cro Cop” is coming back, and I think that he’s nuts. For those who are uninitiated, Cro Cop is one of living legends of this sport. When he was in Pride, he was the most feard Striker in the world and he had head kicks that could sick large ships. However, since coming over to the UFC, he looks old and slow, and nothing like the Mirko of old. His fighting style is to remain on his feet at all costs until he can find a way to employ a devastating striking game on his opponent.
As for Dos Santos, he is a legitimate heavyweight prospect out of the Nogueira’s camp in Brazil. Don’t assume that this means that he is a ground fighter; He ain’t. Dos Santos is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by KO in less than 30 seconds. He has already said that he plans to outbox the Croation, and I think that he will be able to do just that.
The Legend of Cro Cop dies Saturday night.
Prediction: Dos Santos via KO
Rich Franklin v Vitor Belfort @ Catchweight (195 lbs.)
I love the Rich Franklin weight class. It’s like they don’t ant him anywhere near Machida or Silva and that’s why they don’t let him fight in either of the two weight classes he belongs in. Instead, we are going to keep getting these super fights between Ace and a big name opponent that doesn’t quite fit into his weight category.
As for the Franklin the fighter, He’s just great. Primarily known for his stand-up, Franklin is 10-3 with a list of victims that looks like an MMA hall of fame. In fact, if it wasn’t for Anderson Silva being so damn awesome, I’m a strong believer that Franklin would still be the champ at 185.
As for Belfort, he is making his UFC return after a long time away. Belfort came up as a phenom (explaining his nickname, The Phenom) in the UFC’s early days and tore through the competition on his way to become the UFC light heavyweight champ. Then in 2004 his sister was kidnapped and never found. As his life skidded out of control, so did his career and soon he was out of the UFC after losses to Randy Couture and Tito Ortiz.
As sad as it sounds, Vitor’s career didn’t get back on track until after he found out that his sister was dead. Since August 2007, he’s 4-0 and his most recent win came over veterean Matt Lindland. In the ring, Vitor possess some of the fastest hands in MMA and some sick power to go along with it. Franklin has a tendency to lower his hands and if he does, he’ll be facing barrages from Belfort.
I’ve gone back and forth on this fight alot. I want to pick Franklin because I feel like this is an upset that he can do, but I just feel like Belfort’s hands might be way too fast for Rich.
Prediction: Belfort via TKO
More UFC 103 Coverage:
- UFC 103 Predictions: The Undercard
- Frank Trigg’s UFC 103 Walk Out Shirt
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