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NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 17: The National Championship

Record- 19-14
BCS Record: 2-2


BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v Texas

I must admit, December 12th influenced my pick tremendously. Forget dates? Not as insane about this stuff as I am? Probably better off. December 12th was the date of the Big 12 and SEC championship games. One day. Roughly five hours. Two completely different situations.

In the early game (SEC Championship), you saw Alabama dominate Florida. Greg McElroy was efficient. Mark Ingram won the Heisman trophy. Alabama took the current royal family of College Football and threw them off the thrown without a second thought. It was 26-13 early in the fourth and ‘Bama never looked back. Oh, and they made Tim Tebow cry. Not an easy feat.

The win looks even better after watching Florida dismantle an already cracked Cincinnati team in the Sugar Bowl. Now, I know it’s unfair to judge a Cincinnati team that has had just about every bit of turmoil thrust their way in the last month. But the Bearcats were still undefeated. Maybe it was just the revenge mentality, Tim Tebow’s final “see that!” game, but how could you not be just a little more impressed with the job that Nick Saban’s crew did after watching Florida run around in a glorified scrimmage on Friday night.

Texas looked anything but dominant in the Big 12 championship game. Heck, although I disagree with the opinion, there is the thought that they didn’t deserve to win the game. Colt McCoy was bad, throwing no touchdowns and three interceptions. Clearly rattled by Ndamukong Suh and that imposing Nebraska defensive front, McCoy barely got his team into field goal range enough to keep pace with an also-stagnant Nebraska offense. If not for two bad mental mistakes by Nebraska on that final drive and I’m writing about Brian Kelly spurring Notre Dame for a shot at a title with the Bearcats of the Big East. An illegal procedure penalty and a horse collar may have changed the history of three schools….gotta love this stuff.

You may say its only one game for each team. But I think its telling because of the stage. Alabama played a better team and was dominant. Texas won because kickers are dumb.

Alabama’s defense, minus the obvious advantage of having Ndamukong Suh, is just as good as Nebraska’s, if not better. I like Alabama for the same reason’s I liked them to beat Florida.

They have more than one way to beat you.

Sure, stopping Mark Ingram is the key to beating Alabama, but I don’t think that its an if,than proposition. Greg McElroy, although not the owner of flashy numbers, doesn’t turn the ball over. For one game, could you see a combo of McElroy to Julio Jones and great defense beating a Texas team that has one offensive play (McCoy to Shipley- go on 3!). I sure could.

Shut down Colt McCoy, you win. Shut down Mark Ingram and you still have to account for some things.

I entered the year saying that Alabama was the most overrated team in the country. I end it saying that they are the nations best.

Wow, I love this game.

The Pick: Alabama

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 14

Record: 17-13
BCS Record: 1-1


Tostitos Fiesta Bowl- TCU v. Boise State

I get it. You hate the match up. You think it’s a gigantic cop out to pair these two up. You think it’s the BCSs’ maniacal plan to pull the wool over our eyes and not have a non-AQ (automatic qualifier) embarrass a big time school like Utah did to Alabama all year. I’ll try to say this lightly because I do see why someone would think that.

You’re dead wrong.

The thought process is not insane, in fact I giggled a little once the match-up was announced three weeks ago, but it is dead wrong. I know sports fans, especially cynical BCS detractors, hate to hear this phrase but it absolutely applies here-coincidence.

Yes, that’s right. Coincidence. There was no Halderman-like conversation in the parking lot of BCS headquarters. There was no elaborate plan to shut the BCS detractors up (like that would ever happen) and it wasn’t a embarrassment-saving measure. Remember folks, the BCS isn’t the NCAA tournament. There isn’t a committee who decides the match ups nor is this a twelve angry men situation in some underground college football bunker.

The BCS is a computer. It spits out numbers. It doesn’t have agenda’s. It doesn’t care about embaressment. And it sure could give a you-know-what about what you think of it. The logic actually makes a lot of sense. Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU were all undefeated. You had to rank the three undefeated teams from major conferences in front of the two from the WAC and MWC. It’s simple college football logic. How do you determine the order of undefeateds in a ranking situation? Strength of schedule! You cannot make a coherent argument that TCU or Boise State had a tougher schedule then any of those top three teams.

Just can’t do it.

Theirs been talk this week that Nebraska blowing the Big 12 championship locked TCU out of the national title game. That’s untrue. Had Nebraska won, Cinncinatti would have been playing for a title, not TCU. It’s not dumb. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s College Football logic.

Try it sometime.

Now that we’ve stopped whining about how “wrong” the match up is, lets focus on what is the best BCS game this side of Alabama/Texas.

I’ve said all year that TCU is the best non-AQ team in the country and I’m not about to come off that. Not only do they have the number one defense in the country, but the offense is almost just as good. This isn’t the same old “dominant defense, lack luster offense” (or vice-versa) story’s that usually come with non-aq’s. TCU ranks 5th in points scored per game with 40.7, fourth in total yards per game with 469.1, and fifth in rushing yards per game with 257.

The Horned Frogs left no doubt in anyone’s mind this year that they were the real deal. In TCU’s last seven wins, the closest anyone came to beating them was Utah. The final score of that game was 55-28. In fact, you could argue that the two most impressive wins came in the two most important games of the year for TCU, Utah and a 38-7 demolishing of #16 BYU…at BYU. If you question whether this team can handle the big stage, those two games put those doubts to bed.

Offensively, they run the football with the two T’s- Turner and Tucker. Senior Joseph Turner led the club with 732 yards and 11 touchdowns. Matthew Tucker finished with 667 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Although the passing game is not as highly ranked as the defense or the running game, quarterback Andy Dalton is hardly a liability. Dalton threw 22 touchdowns this year and only 5 interceptions. He also ran for more then 500 yards this year, one of four players who have done that for TCU.

I see the Horned Frogs as a shade more complete then Boise State. They boast the number one defense in the country, allowing only 12.4 yards a game. Jerry Hughes is up their with Nebraska’s Suh as one of the most dominant defensive players in the country. Hughes earned All-American honors after his 11 ½ sack 2009.

While Boise State’s defense is nothing to overlook (17 points a game), this is a team defined by offense. Kellen Moore threw for 39 touchdowns this season and only three interceptions. That’s a heck of a ratio. Jeremy Avery ran for over 1000 yards and six touchdowns. Doug Martin had 14 touchdowns. A big loss for the Broncos may be Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with fourteen touchdowns. Pettis has a lower leg fracture, but is a game time decision.

So why am I so confident in a TCU victory?

Dominance. Maybe it’s nit-picking, but with a game this close, you have to nit-pick. Boise State only beat Tulsa by a touchdown and Louisiana Tech by 10. TCU’s close calls came against better teams. Clemson has one of the best offensive players in the country in C.J Spiller and Air Force has a defense that is actually comparable to TCU. When analyzing non-AQ BCS teams, I think you have to look at dominance to make up for the obvious lack of schedule strength. Over the course of the season, TCU was more dominant then Boise State. TCU beat two ranked teams by a combined 58 points. Enough said

In last year’s Poinsettia Bowl match up, TCU held the Bronco offense in check. Kellen Moore had no touchdowns and one interception. The scary part about that? TCU is better this year. I don’t know if Boise State is.

The Pick: TCU

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 13

Record: 15-10
BCS Games: 1-1

International Bowl- Northern Illinois v South Florida

Northern Illinois has seen its fair share of tough losses this season. It started week one with an eight point loss to Wisconsin. It continued week four with a three point loss to Idaho and came to a frustrating head during a 20-19 loss to Toledo. The point? They aren’t quite there yet, but they are close.

The Huskies score a lot of points. Averaging roughly 30 points a game while rushing for 202 a contest will prove difficult to stop for any defense. Running back Chad Spann ran for 945 yards and 19 touchdowns, while Me’Co Brown added 645 yards and four touchdowns.

The Husky defense finished second in the MAC, allowed just 21 points per game. Watch out for Jake Coffman. Coffman, a junior, had 7 ½ sacks this season.

South Florida is a hard team to figure out. Early in the year, they looked like they might have a shot at becoming that third team in the mix in the Big East. After being crushed by Pitt and Cincinnati (clearly the class of the conference), the Bulls knocked off #21 West Virginia. Then came the most perplexing loss of the season.

A 31-0 loss at Rutgers saw the Bulls run for less then a yard per carry against the Scarlet Knights. Two picks by B. J Daniels and South Florida headed to the bus without their pride or their top 25 ranking. They ended the season on a two game loosing streak with losses to Miami and Uconn.

I can’t pick a team in a bowl situation that is this unpredictable. The defenses are almost identical and the Northern Illinois offense is better. South Florida will have trouble scoring in the one.

The Pick: Northern Illinois

Pappajohns.com Bowl- South Carolina v Connecticut

You have to feel for Connecticut. No team should ever have to go through what they went through this season. The death of a teammate is something you just can’t prepare for. After three heart wrenching losses following the death of Jasper Howard, Uconn reeled off three consecutive emotional wins.

The team runs the ball extremely well. Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon combined for 27 touchdowns this season. Todman racked up 1152 yards and Dixon had 967. The Huskies will have to rely on the running game because the quarterback situation is not “bowl-winning material”. Both Cody Endres and Zach Frazer (Notre Dame transfer) struggled with interceptions this year.
South Carolina can stop the run. In an upset win over #18 Clemson to end the year, the Gamecocks held C.J Spiller to only 18 yards. They held the entire Clemson team to only 48 yards. But stoping the run, while it has happened, isn’t a guarantee for Steve Spurriers club. Against Alabama, Heisman winner Mark Ingram tore South Carolina up for a career day. But then again, that was Mark Ingram

South Carolina will need to play tight defense because they have the second worst scoring offense in the country. I think they will score just enough, though, to come out on top.

The Pick: South Carolina

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Mississippi

I loved Mississippi this year. I liked Jevon Sneed to have a Heisman caliber year. I liked the Rebels to win the SEC west and prime themselves for a showdown with Florida in the SEC championship game. I liked them to finally get that BCS at-large birth. Didn’t quite turn out that way for good ol’ Eli Manning’s alma matter.

They suffered an early loss to South Carolina. Jevon Sneed struggled with interceptions and Alabama out classed them in almost every way. Running back Dexter McCluster had some monster games down the stretch, but struggled to find a rhythm early in the season and missed the Northern Arizona game. McCluster ran for 985 yards and six touchdowns.

Oklahoma State’s season was eerily similar. They came in with big dreams, lost to Houston early, and just missed getting back to where they started the year, finishing 2009 ranked 19th in the country.

But that’s not to say that the Cowboys don’t have a legitimate excuse for the late season failings. Star receiver Dez Bryant was suspended by the NCAA mid-season because he hung out with Dion Sanders. (Stupid Dez, everyone knows that the NCAA doesn’t allow thinking about an NFL career during the season. Come on!)

Quarterback Zac Robinson threw 15 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Keith Totson ran for over 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns. The defense is good against the run, allowing under a 100 yards a game. This will be key. Assuming the Cowboys shut down McCluster, I don’t trust Jevon Sneed to beat Oklahoma State by himself. Never trust a man with 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Best part about this game? Pat Summeral on the call…Oh, Pat….

The Pick: Oklahoma State

Alamo Bowl- Texas Tech v Michigan State

Hey, I wonder how Texas Tech will play when there’s not a fear of torture after the game? This is one of the cases where I expect a team to play well after loosing a coach. My guess, based on comments after Mike Leach was fired earlier this week, is that his players were none to fond of everyone’s favorite pledge master coach.

They talked about relief. They talked about relaxation. They said all the things that will probably lead to a big outburst in the bowl game. And don’t forget, this is still the run and shoot offense (just today, all of the running and shooting will be on the field).

Just like you would expect a Texas Tech quarterback to do, Taylor Potts threw for over 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns. The team scored 440 points this season and nearly forty points per game. Nine receiver caught 20 or more passes.

Some have said that the Texas Tech offense is lost without Mike Leach. I don’t think you will see that until next year. The players are the same, the assistants are the same and I think its pretty clear that they all hated Leach. To me, that’s a recipe for some Michigan State hurtin’.

Michigan State is also involved in some controversy. 11 players were suspended for roles in a dorm room brawl. This, plus the fact that they allowed 1500 yards to their last three Big 10 opponents spells bad day for Michigan State.

The Pick: Texas Tech

One More for the Road-

Liberty Bowl- Arkansas v East Carolina

Watching Ryan Mallet is always fun. Arkansas was good down the strech, winning four in a row before almost knocking off LSU in OT.

The Pick: Arkansas

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 12

Record: 11-9

Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Oregon

I’ve mentioned it on the air many times in the last few weeks, but I don’t think I’ve written it here. I was dead wrong about Oregon. Alabama too, but we’ll save that crow for next week. In terms of the amount of good teams, you could make an argument that this was the hardest Pac-10 to win in years. Sure, USC has been one of the premier teams in the country for virtually the entire decade, but when has the Pac-10 had as much depth as it currently does? Maybe it was a direct product of having a bulldozing power house like USC take a year off, but this was the best Pac-10 I’ve seen in a long long time.

Oregon lost the heart of their defense in Tommy Chang and suspended their star running back after the first week of the season. Things looked grim for the Ducks. Then we found out how good LeMichael James and Jeremiah Massoli were. James stepped in for Blount at the running back position and actually made people forget about the pre-season Heisman candidate. James ran for 1476 yards and 14 touchdowns. When Blount was reinstated mid season (I guess all is forgiven when you have a real shot at a title), James remained the feature back. I think that says more about the kid than anything else. You know you’re good when a preseason Heisman trophy candidate can’t steel some of your carries.

I love the way the Ducks use Legarette Blount now. For example, in the defacto Pac-10 championship game against Oregon State, James had 25 carries and Blount had nine. He comes in fresh when the defense is on it’s heals. You cannot ask for anything more, if you’re the Ducks. No one talked about it because Blount only played half the season, but this is the best running back tandem in the country.

…and Ohio State might just be the team to stop them. The Buckeye’s have the number five rush defense in the country. They allowed under 14 points a game in a weak Big 10. But I’m always worried about Ohio State on a big stage in January. If history has taught you anything, it’s don’t pick Ohio State in a BCS game. I’ve done it before and gotten burned and won’t do it this year.

Oregon has too many ways to beat you offensively. Part of me, despite the defense, really thinks that Ohio State was the product of a poor conference and is at the low end of the totem pole when it comes to ranking BCS teams 1 through 10. I mean, after all, they are #8. I don’t think Jim Tressel has figured out how to use his quarterback and that will hurt him on a big stage.

The Pick: Oregon


Sugar Bowl- Florida v Cincinnati

Pat Forde of ESPN.com wrote a fantastic piece on how this could be the final game of the Florida dynasty. Ranked from most to least impact on the program, tonight is-

1. The final game for Tim Tebow

2. The final game for many of these defensive players because of the amount of juniors that are going to head for the pros this year.

3. Many of the coordinators final games before they head for head coaching positions

4. Urban Meyer’s “final game”.

I put the Urban Meyer story last because I sincerely believe that he’ll be back on the sideline game one 2010. If not game one 2010, then absolutely game one 2011. The more the story unravels, the more I think it was a rash decision based on a very unfortunate health situation by Meyer last week. I don’t believe for a second that he ever wanted to quit coaching. I think he was scared by his health issues over the last month and phrased the announcement incorrectly last Saturday.

But regardless, next year is going to be a down year for the Gators. This will be their last stand. I love Cinncinatti’s offense, but I get the feeling that they were shocked and hurt by Brian Kelly leaving for South Bend last month. Sometimes when a coach leaves before the bowl game a team is inspired, whether it be for revenge or some other reason.

I don’t buy that Florida won’t play hard because they lost out on a shot to play for the BCS national title game. I actually think it will work the other way. The Gators are angry. They wasted a shot to put a cap on a great era with a national title. Tim Tebow doesn’t want to go out a looser. This defense doesn’t want to go out losers. Don’t think that it’s lost on these players that it’s the last night of the Florida Gators as we know them.

The defense that allowed 12 points a game this season will hold the Bearcat offense in check and the final night of the Florida dynasty will be more comparable to last year’s national title then this year’s failure in the SEC championship game.

The Pick: Florida

Non-BCS picks: for the record….

Capitol One Bowl- Penn State over LSU
Gator Bowl- Florida State over West Virginia
Outback Bowl- Auburn over Northwestern

Tune in to College Football Tonight at 10pm on wcwpsports.com for all the Rose Bowl wrap up talk and much more…..

NCAAF

Opening Night Picks

The wait is finally over. College football starts tonight!

Full picks column coming by Friday night, but here are some quick ones for opening night.

South Carolina vs. N.C State – South Carolina won 34-0 last year. Expect different things this year. South Carolina has a young team with some uncertainty at the quarterback position. NC State’s Russell Wilson threw only one interception last season and is ready to take that next step. If Wilson improves on his 54% completion percentage, he should be able to do that. Also, don’t think 34-0 hasn’t been thrown around a lot this week. Players have pride.

The Pick: NC State

North Texas vs. Ball State – After a season in which he ran for over 1700 yards, Ball State’s Miqual Lewis is the leading returning rusher in the country. Look for him to have a big game

The Pick: Ball State

Utah State vs. Utah
– Utah needs every game in what should be a fascinating MWC. They have some uncertainty at quarterback now that Corbin Louks has moved on to Nevada. The jury was still out on whether Louks would win the job anyway, but now Utah is looking at even less experience at quarterback. I think this will hurt them late in the year when they play TCU. However, it won’t make much of a difference tonight.

The Pick: Utah

Oregon vs. Boise State – The game of the night, by far. Maybe the game of the weekend (it’s at least top three). It’s rare that you can say this on the season’s opening night, but this is a really important game. Boise State needs to go undefeated to have a shot at the BCS. Oregon is, by far, the toughest game on the schedule. Kellen Moore had a great season for the Broncos last year and will be just as good, if not better, this season. This will be the first taste of how he meshes with his new group of top receivers (three of Moore’s go to guys in ‘08 are gone for ‘09).

Call me crazy if you’d like, but I think Oregon is overrated. The defense is rebuilding. The head coach, while from inside the program, is new. LeGarrette Blount is really good, but I think the defense will struggle a lot early. Going on the road against the high powered Broncos spells bad news.

The Pick: Boise State

NCAAF

College Football ‘09: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

For the next few weeks our very own Jordan Lauterbach will be previewing the upcoming 2009 College Football season. Each day, he will be posting a new preview so be sure to check in everyday.

Last Season- 7-6, beat Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl

AP and Coaches Poll: 23

The goal in South Bend is clear. The goal for head coach Charlie Weis may be even clearer.

BCS bowl or bust.

After two consecutive years of downright embarrassing football played under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus, 2009 may be one of the most important seasons in the history of the program. While 2008 may not have been quite as bad as the 3-9 campaign of a year earlier, it sure felt like it towards the end of the regular season.

Yes, the Irish beat Navy- but they lost to Syracuse. Yes, they were 5-2 at the beginning of November- but they were 6-6 at the end of it. A bad overtime loss to Pittsburgh started what was an almost comical final month. That final month almost got Charlie Weis fired.

I think he would have been canned if not for a Christmas Eve thrashing of Hawaii that gave Notre Dame its first bowl victory in what seemed like a thousand years. But that game was only the beginning of what should be a remarkable comeback story for the Irish.

Think about it. How impressive would it be for a program to finish a season with three victories and find itself in a BCS game two years later? Almost unthinkable right?

But that is precisely what Charlie Weis must do to keep his job.

And he has the talent to do so.

It starts at the quarterback position. The excuses are gone for Jimmy Clausen. The quarterback who came to South Bend with such high expectations has been a bust in his first two seasons. But I give him a pass for a lot of what happened in 2007.

The quarterback situation was horribly mismanaged that season. The star recruit was placed behind an awful offense line and paid for it. Because of this, his 2008 wasn’t as good as it could have been. Clausen made a lot of bad decisions that led to seventeen interceptions. Say what you will about Clausen in ’08, but he single handily lost games because of poor decision making and interceptions at the worst possible times.

But despite some mind-blowing mistakes, Clausen showed what made him such a valuable asset coming out of high school. In the Hawaii bowl, he threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns. The touchdown total matched what he had accumulated in the last five games of the season combined. If the Hawaii bowl is any indication, Clausen should be one of the more improved quarterbacks in the nation this season.

Jimmy Clausen isn’t the only player that makes this passing game dangerous. Receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are a big play threat on almost every down. Tate caught 58 passes for 1080 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. He was on the receiving end of three of Clausen’s five touchdowns against Hawaii and averaged nearly twenty yards per reception last season.

Michael Floyd had some injury issues late in the year, but still grabbed seven touchdown passes. He is expected to be fully healthy and possibly even better in his sophomore season. The combo of Floyd and Tate will make Notre Dame air attack hard to contain.

The biggest questions offensively are at running back. The Irish ranked 100th in the nation in rushing last season. Armando Allen, the teams leading rusher, ran for only 535 yards and three touchdowns. Robert Hughes followed with 382 yards and four touchdowns. As good as this passing game can be, the running game must improve dramatically for the offense to reach its full potential. An offensive line that suddenly has some experience (four starters returning) should help that.

With Charlie Weis calling the plays, I expect the Irish to be aggressive down the field more than almost any other team in the nation. Expect a lot of big plays from Clausen as he morphs into the player everyone thought he was coming out of high school.

Despite the running game questions, if Notre Dame falters again it wont be because of their offense.

Defensively, Notre Dame has struggled in recent years. Even during the BCS/Brady Quinn years, the Irish won because of points on the scoreboard, not goose eggs. This season might not be all that different.

Notre Dame only has a few players with starting experience. Nose tackle Ian Williams and defensive end Kerry Neal provide experience on a defensive line that will be starting a red shirt freshman. That freshman, Kapron Lewis-Moore has tremendous upside, but has never played a snap of college ball.

The linebacking core has depth, but maybe not the right kind. In spring camp, six players were fighting for starting positions. Those six do not include highly touted recruit Manti Te’o. Te’o, while only a freshman, is expected to eventually lead the defense and may get significant time this season.

Linebacker Harrison Smith has moved back to his natural position, free safety. This should improve a secondary that returns Sergio Brown, Robert Blanton, E.J Banks, Raeshon McNeil, and Darrin Walls. Walls missed all of 2008 for “personal reasons”.

What makes Notre Dame’s outlook more favorable this year than it has been in years past is the schedule. The Irish are famous for having a schedule that makes it almost impossible to compete on a national level. While many national powerhouses schedule a few powder puff games to pad the record, Notre Dame has been stuck playing a marquee matchup almost every week. This is not the case this year.

A few weeks ago, Lou Holtz was chastised for predicting Notre Dame would make the national championship game. While I ultimately disagree with the end result, I don’t think the logic is at all absurd or misguided. I see a maximum of two losses on the schedule. The toughest game, USC, comes at home. They visit programs that are either in a “rebuilding mode” or just not very good.

This makes the goal even clearer.

I think that a two loss Notre Dame team gets a BCS bid. There is no excuse for a three loss season, given the schedule. Rarely is the measure of success so cut and dry in August. But for Charlie Weis, it couldn’t be any more obvious.

Find yourself in a BCS game or go find a new job.

3 Games To Watch

September 19th- Michigan State- The first of two potential losses that I see on the schedule. A good defense, led by Greg Jones, frustrated Jimmy Clausen and the Notre Dame offense in last year’s matchup. This could be a low scoring slugfest. The kind of game that I don’t think Notre Dame would win early in the year.

October 17th- USC- Remember the Bush push game? I’m sure you do. This one could have all the hype of that game if both teams come in undefeated (which is a strong possibility). The Trojans have won the last seven matchups, most by knockout. While I’m already on record saying that Notre Dame finally beats USC this year, who would be surprised if the Irish fell for an eighth straight time?

November 14th- @Pittsburgh- A game with late season trap potential. Pittsburgh fought back from a second half deficit in last year’s matchup in South Bend and could need this one for a Big East Title shot.

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