I woke up in a cold sweat this morning around 4:30am. I think I sub-consciously realized something. If Eli Manning misses any kind of time, the Giants are absolutely screwed.

I know that you are thinking that’s obvious, but I’m not so sure that it was always the case. Last year, the Giants featured one of the best running games in the history of the modern NFL. To quote some I know, The Giants ran a west coast offense. There running game was a short passing game. This year, it hasn’t been nearly as efficient. Brandon Jacobs has looked better as the early part of the season has worn on, but his yards per carry is down from 5.0 to 3.6. That’s quite a significant drop. Ahmad Bradshaw has done a good job picking up the slack, but he is a runner that is as consistent as Jacobs, or even as the man he replaced Derrick Ward. As hard as Bradshaw runs, he profiles as the kind of runner that is going to break some big runs that will raise his average, but also struggled to move the pile sometimes. When you put it all together, you are looking at a running that isn’t even close to what is was last year.

The receiving corps of the Giants has been a subject of so much discussion that I’m sure everyone is just sick of hearing about it. However, it’s an important part of my theory. While Steve Smith is playing at a pro bowl level, how much of that is his chemistry with Manning? If David Carr comes into the game, who says that he doesn’t look more towards the second team guys that he works with every day in practice like Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon. Who says that it doesn’t take weeks for them to get on the same page? Suddenly, one of your best weapons on offense is nullified.

As for the defense, something is wrong. It’s not the injuries. It’s not the play calling. I don’t know what it is. Ever heard of the Blink Instinct? It’s a Malcolm Gladwell concept. The example of it that Gladwell gives in book Blink is a piece of art that a museum buys. Art scholars agree that it’s real. However, they get people that are from where the piece originated and they unanimously agree that the piece is fake. They can’t tell you why, but they know that it’s fake. Guess what? The piece is fake. That’s the way that I feel about the Giants defense. I can’t tell you what’s wrong, but something is. I’ve watched this team run the same defense for the last three years, and this version is just inferior right now. I am very afraid of the game against the Saints in two weeks.

It’s not that I don’t have faith in David Carr. He wasn’t the number one pick of the 2002 draft for no reason. He has talent. The last two years with the Giants seemed to have normalized his career after the beating he took in Houston. In actuality, I was really surprised that he wasn’t picked up by another quarterback-poor team in this quarterback-poor league and given a shot to start. However, with the supporting cast playing at a much lower level than they did last season, more of the load has fallen on Manning’s shoulders. Could Carr hold it up? I’m not so sure.

It’s generally assumed that Eli won’t miss any time, but Plantar Fascitis is a weird injury. It’s held basketball players out for months at a time. It kept Michael Strahan out for seven games in 2006. If the Giants wind up with Eli missing any time whatsoever, they might fight themselves on the outside looking in during the playoffs.