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By Anthony De Franco  February 18, 2010, at 2:21 am  There are plenty of careers on the line at UFC 110. That’s part of what makes it the most interesting card we’ve had in months. However, there is some debate in the community about the UFC cutting some of the losers on Sunday morning.
After UFC 109, when the organization cut six fighters, there are worries that the clear-cutting could continue. With legends like Wanderlei Silva and Mirko Cro Cop, and vets like Keith Jardine on the chopping block, there could be some wholesale changes on the way home from Australia. Let’s take a look at some necks on the line and assume they lose. Should they stay?
- Stephan Bonnar - All these years later, and Bonnar is still living off the good will that he created for himself when he put the UFC on the map with Forrest Griffin. Since that war took place on that magical night in 2005, Bonnar is 5-6 in the UFC. Until UFC 100, you could have made the argument that all his losses had come against top competition, but then he lost to Mark Coleman. Oh yeah, there is also that whole horse steroids thing.Bonnar is fighting a decent opponent in Krzysztof Soszynski, but he still should be out as he loses. However, his saving grace may be Strikeforce. Would Scott Coker want Bonnar if he is cut by the UFC? I think we are going to find out.
In or Out?: Out.
- Wanderlei Silva – The Axe Murderer is an MMA legend. He was the best fighter in the world for most of his tenure in PRIDE. His blinding strikes put down many a fighter for a long winter’s nap. However, that success has not translated to the UFC as he is just 1-3. I personally believe that he won the Rich Franklin fight, but whatever. Now, he makes the drop to 185, which he should have done a long time ago, to fight Michael Bisping.Silva has also just had facial surgery to remove all the scar tissue that 10-plus years of fighting has accumulated on his face. He won’t cut as easy and won’t be as easy to knockout.Silva is a real legend, and his action-filled style always is exciting. He’s safe.
In or Out?: In
- Mirko Cro Cop – No PRIDE star has struggled more than Cro Cop. He claims to have a mental block from fighting in the cage, but I think that it has more to do with lack of steroid testing in Japan and Cro Cop getting up their in years.That’s not mention that his flawed gameplan of relying on head kicks has stopped working as mixed martial artists have become more skilled.If he loses to Rothwell, he’ll be 1-4 in the UFC. At some point, even the most insistent PRIDE fans (Jason) will have to admit it’s over.
In or Out?: Out
- Keith Jardine – Jardine has always been overrated in my opinion. His “unorthodox” (DING!) striking can be neutralized by the fact that he has a tendency to go down VERY early in fights. Of his five UFC losses, three of them have come in the first five minutes. To make it worse, he already trains at Greg Jackson’s. He just doesn’t have what it takes to make it as a contender in the UFC.He simply isn’t all that good, and in a crowded division, there really isn’t any room for him to hang around to be a gatekeeper.
In or Out?: Out
By Jason Comack February 17, 2010, at 1:31 pm Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1; #3 Heavyweight) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0; #6 Heavyweight)
The Fighters: Nogueira is one of the few PRIDE vets who was able to successfully transition to the UFC. He won his first two UFC fights, including a win over Tim Sylvia for the UFC title. Since he’s gone 1-1 losing to Frank Mir and beating Randy Couture.
In his UFC stint ‘Nog has been oft-injured. More particularly he’s battled staph infections during his entire UFC tenure. ‘Nog is never one to make excuses but, after the Mir loss it was revealed that he had spent a ton of time in the hospital battling a bad staph infection. It’s hard to argue that the staph didn’t affect his performance in that fight. Not only was he finished for the first time in his illustrious career but he looked old and more then a step slow. Many, myself included, wondered if wear and tear had finally caught up to ‘Nog. However, in his win against Couture he proved that he still has a ton left in the tank. His boxing was as crisp as ever and he showcased his world class ground skills.
Cain Velasquez may be the fastest rising heavyweight prospect the sport has ever seen. He’s 5-0 in the UFC, but more importantly he’s looked better every fight. He proved against Cheick Kongo that he could win a three round war as well as take a punch. As Jordan Breen would say “the man has a great beard.” Ben Rothwell was suppose to be another step up in competition for Velasquez. However, Velasquez took the much bigger and experienced Rothwell down at will and made him look like an amateur. Every test that has been presented to Velasquez he has passed with flying colors.
Breakdown: Odds makers have this fight as a Pick ‘Em and it’s hard to disagree. ‘Nog has great boxing and will have a significant advantage when the fight is standing but, as we saw in the Kongo fight Velasquez isn’t easy to drop. Velasquez will want to shoot early and often and should have no problem getting ‘Nog to the ground. The key question is; will Velasquez be able to control the action on the ground? Velasquez is relentless and can push the pace like no other heavyweight in the UFC can but he’s also never fought a fighter of ‘Nog’s caliber on the ground. ‘Nog has a knack for taking a pounding, but still finding the perfect opportunity to sweep or submit. Even when it looks like he’s on the brink of defeat he’s not, just ask Bob Sapp.
Velasquez is so hyper active on the ground it could end up being reckless. Look for a classic ‘Nog performance as he catches the wrestler off guard with a sweep followed by a textbook submission.
Prediction: Nogueira via Arm-Bar Round 3
Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1) vs. Michael Bisping (18-2)
The Fighters: Annnnnd cue “Sandstorm!”
Ok, you can put the glow sticks away now.
Unlike his PRIDE counterpart, Nogueira, Silva did not find immediate success upon entering the UFC. In fact The Axe Murderer is only 1-3 in the UFC (though you can make a sound argument that he beat Rich Franklin.) His UFC run has certainly been a disappointment but there’s a lot of reasons to think that he can still turn his career around. Silva is making his debut at middleweight, dropping from light heavyweight. Silva was always on the small side for a 205 pounder and has said he feels much quicker since dropping the weight. Silva also underwent facial surgery. He got his mangled nose repaired and a ton of scar tissue removed. While the gains of such surgery appear superficial on the surface they are not. The scar tissue left Silva’s face much more susceptible to cuts, also Silva said the surgery on his nose has helped his breathing tremendously.
Silva certainly earned the nickname The Axe Murderer. His style is to come straight at you at overwhelm you with strikes and knees from the clinch. The underrated aspects of Silvas game are his wresting, more then adequate, and his jiu-jitsu. He never uses either offensively but he’s shown skill in both areas when he’s been forced to.
Bisping is the brash winner of The Ultimate Fighter. I’ve long considered Bisping an overrated fighter whose record was inflated by fighting low level talent. After his decisive loss to Dan Handerson I found myself vindicated. However, in his win over Dennis Kang, Bisping proved the doubters wrong and showed he still has a lot of talent. What impressed me most about Bisping in the Kang fight was his jiu-jitsu. Kang has a tight ground game and Bisping did a great job using his hips to keep Kang off balance. In the later rounds he showed improved wrestling as he dropped Kang with ease.
With an 8-2 UFC record a win over Silva would put Bisping in or around the top 10 and potentially only one or two fights away from a title shot.
Breakdown: Bisping in a lot of ways is similar to Forrest Griffin. He’s tough and he’s well rounded but he doesn’t have one particular skill that’s exceptional, and at the end of the day that can only get you so far. Bisping should look to keep Silva at a distance with his jab and leg kicks, Silva on the other is going to try to showcase his trademark combination of explosiveness and violence and bum rush Bisping with strikes.
Bisping will find himself overwhelmed in the striking game just like he did against Dan Henderson, who really is just a one trick pony. Bisping could work for take-downs but Rich Franklin struggled to take Silva down and Silva’s take down defense should only be better at a lighter weight class.
Prediction: Silva via TKO Round 2
Joe Stevenson (31-10) vs. George Sotiropoulos (11-2)
The Fighters: The hometown hero Sotiropoulos, is a very well rounded fighter. He’s a BJJ Black Belt but he also has an amateur boxing background, in fact in 2004 he won a Victoran State Amateur boxing tournament. Sotiropoulos is 11-2 overall and 4-0 in the UFC. His only two losses are a DQ loss to Shinya Aoki and a split decision loss very early in his career. Sotiropoulos competed on the Ultimate Fighter and made it to the semi-finals before losing in controversial fashion. Sotiropoulos has never been finished in his professional career. As a former welterweight Sotiropoulos is a very large lightweight and is a handful to try to take down. Sotiropoulos is similar stylistically to Paulo Filho. He’s incredibly methodical as he tightly transitions from position to position.
To say Stevenson is veteran would be an understatement. Stevenson fought Jens Pulver when he was only 17 years old! Stevenson is only 27 years old but already has 41 pro bouts on his record. Like Sotiropoulos, Stevenson moved from welterweight to lightweight. Stevenson won his first four fights as a lightweight before getting a shot at the UFC title against B.J Penn. Since losing to Penn it’s been a mixed bag for Stevenson. He looked good against Diaz and Fisher but not so good against Florian and Sanchez.
Stevenson recently teamed up with Greg Jackson and it’s done wonders for his career. Stevenson has gone back to his roots, his wrestling and top game, and is riding a two fight win streak.
Breakdown: Much like ‘Nog vs. Velasquez the question in this fight is; what happens when Stevenson gets Sotiropoulos down. Sotiropoulos has the skills to sweep or submit Joe Daddy. However, what I see being the underrated aspect of this fight is Sotiropoulos boxing. He hasn’t showcased it a ton in his UFC career but you can tell he has actual boxing technique, something we don’t get to see in the UFC often. Joe Daddy might be able to take Sotiropoulos down but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep him down.
Prediction: Sotiropoulos Via Split Decision
Keith Jardine (15-6-1) vs. Ryan Bader (10-0)
The Fighters: Expect the word “unorthodox” to be used to describe Keith Jardine roughly 8,000 times this fight. The former Ultimate Fighter contestant began his career at heavyweight before settling in at 205. Jardine is 6-5 in the UFC but has faced top competition for most of the past three years. Jardine holds wins over contenders Brandon Vera, Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell. Jardine is well rounded, trains at a great camp (Greg Jackson) and has a unorthodox (Ding!) striking style that keeps opponents off guard. He likes to use his leg kicks, some of the best in the sport, and his jab to keep distance from opponents.
Ryan “Darth” Bader won his season of The Ultimate Fighter. When watching him on TUF you got the sense that not only did he have the raw skills to be a TUF champ but a UFC champ one day. A two time All-American wrestler at Arizona State University and a three-time PAC 10 Champion, Baders 120 wins ranks him 8th on the all-time wins list for ASU. Bader was college teammates with current UFC competitors Cain Velasquez and C.B. Dollaway. Bader is 3-0 in the UFC.
Breakdown: Where Bader struggles is on his feet. He has tremendous power but his striking arsenal is limited to a single Dan Henderson style overhand right. The UFC has protected him in the stand up game by feeding him grapplers and weaker wrestlers early in his career (Magalhaes, Marerro, Schafer.) That’s why Jardine is a bigger test then people realize. How’s Bader going to react to leg kicks? Will he check them properly or are we heading for Robbie Lawler territory (if you underestimate the importance of leg kicks look no further then Griffin/Rampage where Forrest essentially won a title because of them.) How will Bader react if he gets tagged? These things are unknowns with Bader. As for Jardine we’ve seen that he’s most vulnerable when facing a striker with K.O power. Of his five losses three came within the first minutes of the fight (W. Silva, T. Silva, Alexander.) Where Jardine excels is when he’s forced to wrestle and scramble.
Bader is a great wrestler and should be able to take Jardine down at will but even Rampage Jackson had trouble holding Jardine down for three rounds.
Prediction: Jardine via TKO Round 3
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (25-7-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-7)
The Fighters: Wild Boys…Wild Boys….Wild Boys!
It’s been a quick and sudden fall for Cro-Cop who was once unanimously considered the third best heavyweight in the world. The one time PRIDE star has found almost no success in the Octagon. He’s 2-3 in the cage but his wins have been over meek competition (Eddie Sanchez and Mastapha-Al-Turk.) I’ve written about Mirko’s struggles at length. Mirko would blame his struggles on the lack of a proper training regimen and a mental block in the Octagon, I would simply blame them on age. PRIDE fighters tend to age in dog years and all those years of tournament fighting seem to have caught up to him.
Ben Rothwell came into the UFC with a fair amount of hype. The 28 year old was considered a borderline top 10 heavyweight and he racked up an impressive record fighting in the now defunct IFL. Somehow the UFC had always eluded him. Rothwell’s UFC debut didn’t go as planned as he was manhandled by Cain Velasquez.
Breakdown: Cro-Cop is on the small side for a heavyweight and relies on his kickboxing. In fact, Cro-Cop has basically made a career off of jab-head kick. Rothwell is a monster of a man, tipping the scales at 260 plus. Rothwell also relies on his kick boxing but he doesn’t have the same technical acumen as Cro-Cop. Rothwell is a mauler and brawler, not a counter puncher. That fact should bode well for Mirko.
Prediction: Cro Cop via KO, Head Kick, Round 1
…Hey we all can dream.
For More UFC 110 Coverage:
UFC 110 Undercard Predictions
UFC 110 Walkout Shirts from the 3rd String Store!
By Anthony De Franco February 15, 2010, at 8:11 pm It appears that everyone in the world has put their two cents into the recent conversation about the state of the closed guard. Recently, Bloody Elbow put up another article with people’s thoughts about it. The one that I would really like to look at is the words of Japanese lightweight Shinya Aoki. This whole thing started when Jon Fitch said that the closed guard is dead, but mentioned Aoki as someone you still uses it well.
However, that didn’t stop Aoki from agreeing with Fitch.
I heard Jon Fitch said “The closed guard is dead in MMA” oh,yes,yes,i agree! absolutely Yes!!
Long time closed guard means present my lose by decision to opponent. If I am closed position, I have to recover quickly.
Pressure of sweep & submission…..but it is prolog of stand.how can I stand again from guard? it is united technic of submission, sweep,and stand…..We need groud technic to stand again. Do you know it?……….Sorry I can not explain it perfectly,,,it….I want to say “MMA IS MMA.”MMA is not “striking + Ground”…so , it is called as MMA!!
While Aoki’s english is suspect, his point remains correct. The best course of action in a modern day MMA fight is to stay off your back at all times. Fighters who have good wrestling are simply too good to allow the space necessary to pull off a submission from the bottom.
However, there is some merit to being able to work from the bottom. I’m going to make a bold prediction here, but I think we are going to see sweeps become a lot more common over the next few years. The sweep is the quickest way to improve position from the bottom for guys who don’t want to stand back up. If BJJ guys start focusing more on the ability to sweep rather than submissions from the bottom, they could turn it into a more frequent occurrence, and maybe even a serious weapon.
For those who aren’t as skilled, the bottom game is going to equate to the ability to stand back up. The fact that there are so many wrestlers who still don’t look like the have the ability to stand back up is amazing to me. Wrestlers simply need to learn to hip escape, or at the very least make sure that they don’t get taken down.
Is the closed guard dead? Kinda. It’s dead in the way that Royce Gracie used it back in the day. There is no more waiting for your opponent to make a mistake. There is an effective way to use the guard, and that is finding a way to sweep or stand.
By Anthony De Franco January 28, 2010, at 12:50 pm We haven’t been around the last few days. Two reasons. One: There is nothing going on right now. Outside of some hype for Strikeforce: Miami and a couple of fights being made, it’s just been a boring freaking month for MMA. Think about it: When is the last time you had to wait three or four weeks between cards? It’s painful.
Second, I’ve been playing Mass Effect 2. Sue Me. It’s awesome. Go buy it.
So, for my return, I naturally have to find a topic to piss Jason off. To do that, I’ll go back to old argument that I’ve been making since the dawn of this site: Everyone who came over from PRIDE is overrated.
You may be asking yourself what in god’s name this has to do with Marius Zaromskis and this weekend’s Strikeforce card. Well, Let’s quickly take a look at his game and you tell me who he is closely emulating.
If you said anyone except Mirko Cro Cop, I don’t really know what you were watching.
Here is the interesting thing: Cro Cop built a career on one combo: Jab, Head Kick. Sure, he’s got great takedown defense, which helps him eventually throw Jab, head kick. In PRIDE, he never needed to anything but that to win, so no one realized what a flawed plan it was.
Then, Mirko came to the UFC and found himself in the ring with people who are better, more well-rounded strikers than he is. He lost to Gabe Gonzaga, Cheick Kongo, and Junior Dos Santos. All three of them beat him soundly.
So, here comes this new guy calling himself “The Whitemare”, which sounds like he should be wearing some Hoezler-Reich gear. He head kicks his way to a DREAM welterweight title. People start talking, and the next thing you know, he’s fighting Nick Diaz for Strikeforce’s welterweight title.
Here is the thing: I don’t think the Whitemare measures up. Sure, could he catch lightning in a bottle and beat Nick Diaz? Of course, Diaz is hardly GSP. He’s not going to dominate night in and night out.
I just think that his gameplan is flawed. He live in a different world than we did five years ago. Jab, head kick is simply not enough to beat top competition. Cro Cop found that out. If they stay on the feet, Diaz could use his jab to keep distance between him and Zaromskis, or perhaps a better idea is to clinch and not let him create enough space to head kick. If Diaz gets him down, we have no idea what the Whitemare has, but it probably isn’t as good as Diaz.
So, Nick Diaz will be the welterweight champ of Strikeforce on Sunday morning. All the media will be talking about Zaromskis’ striking, and how it wasn’t good enough. Just remember that you saw it here first.
By Anthony De Franco January 11, 2010, at 12:36 am Before I make my argument, I’m going to participate in a little exercise that lawyers call discovery. That means that I am going to show all my cards, expose my evidence so that the whole world can see.
1. Varner was hit with a knee that glanced his head in his fight against Cerrone. Because of that, he “couldn’t continue” and a fight where the momentum was clearly in Cerrone’s favor was stopped, went to the cards, and Varner retained.
2. He then took a YEAR off, claiming that he had two separate injuries that kept him from fighting Cerrone. People clamored for the fight, and rumors began to circulate that Varner was ducking his opponent. The two continued to verbal spar and nearly fight each time they were in the same room.
3. After Cerrone lost an interim title fight to Ben Henderson, Varner was forced to fight Henderson. All he did in the lead-up to the fight was that the WEC was promoting the return of Urijah Faber, their biggest draw, more than they were promoting his title fight.
4. Just moments into said title fight, Varner looked for the ref to stop the fight because of something with his eye. It kinda made no sense. He was just hit with a kick to the body. I’m going to assume that he lost a contact. Otherwise, I have no idea.
5. In round three, Henderson locked in a hanging guillotine. It took Varner roughly three seconds to tap. No slam, no falling to the ground to defend, no trying to power out. Nothing. He just tapped.
6. After the fight, Varner said “Boo all you want. I came to fight, he came to grapple.”
Wow. What a guy. This dude wants to know why the fans hate him so much? Look at the six examples I just provided. All of those things seem to point to the same thing. Varner simply doesn’t have much in the way of heart.
As someone who covers the sport, I really don’t hate fighters. I have certain fighters that I treat as a “home team.” When they win, I get pumped. I never, ever get excited when someone looses. However, how could you not root against Varner after all he’s done?
The best part about the whole thing is that a lot of those things are excusable if they were the only thing a fighter has done. The quick tap could have been a case where the submission was just in really deep. The knee was a weird scenario. However, when you pile it all together, it paints an ugly picture.
Jamie. Listen to me. If you want the fans to like you, here is what you do: You shut up. You stop talking. You take your next fight and you win. You still stay quiet. Lather, rinse, and repeat. It’s your mouth that gets you into trouble more often than not.
As for the quick tap, I think that we all know what that means. I’m just not going to say it because I don’t want to create enemies. However, I think we all know that we need our fighters to show a little more heart than that.
By Anthony De Franco January 3, 2010, at 8:52 pm With one baby left hook to the face of a guy nicknamed McLovin, Paul Daley catapulted himself into the top five of the UFC welterweight division. You’ll have to excuse me If I just don’t get it.
I actually had been defending Daley quite a bit against other people who suggested that he was a one trick pony. Well, sure he is. That one trick is explosive striking that blew up Martin Kampmann, who is considered a remarkably technical striker. Besides, Dustin Hazelett is a one trick pony too.
“Yea, but his trick is better!”
Not really. He’s still kinda getting by on a couple of nice submissions. He has never developed any kind of striking game. While he’s won five fights, none were against anyone all that great unless you count Jason’s hard-on for Tamdan McCrory. In fact, one of losses was to Tony DeSouza, who hasn’t fought since UFC 79.
So, I was on Daley’s bandwagon for last night. I was psyched when he landed the hook, but as soon at he exited the cage, an argument ignited on Twitter about where he stands in the welterweight division. Suddenly, after feeling he was underrated twenty minutes before, I was now sure he was going to be overrated.
Low and behold, in the post fight presser, Dana White said that he plans on trying to put Daley up against a guy like Josh Koscheck or Jon Fitch. Sure, he complain about those teammates not wanting to fight one another first, but the plan seems to be put the British striker against one of the boys from AKA.
Let’s think about this for a second. Before coming into the UFC, Daley’s biggest fight was against Jake Shields. Take a look at how that went.
Notice the takedown defense and ground game. Pretty dismal on the part of Daley. Now, while I love Jake Shields and think that he is a pretty good fighter, his takedowns aren’t anywhere close to the takedowns of a Fitch or a Koscheck. Daley may swear that his sprawl has improved since then, but unless it’s literally two or three hundred percent better, he’s in trouble.
The truth of the welterweight division remains that St. Pierre is on the top, Koscheck, Thaigo Alves and Fitch are at the next level, and then there is everyone else. Could Daley win against current number one contender Dan Hardy? Sure. Could he maybe beat Mike Swick? There’s a shot. However, when you start to talk about that upper level of fighters, there is no just chance that Daley will stay on his feet. He would need to get a knockout in the first 30 seconds of a round. Otherwise, it would be a long, frustrating fifteen minutes staring at the lights for Daley.
Instead, the UFC should take the advice that Daley tried to give them in the post-fight presser and throw him up against a recovering Thiago Alves. While Alves is a better fighter, he’s still a striker. With two men standing, you always have a chance of the lesser fighter landing a good shot and putting the favorite out. See Serra, Matt.
Basically, I hate how these mediocre fighters are getting put up against much better ones because of the dominance of a champion. I get that no one wants to see Fitch/GSP II right now, but at the very least stop delaying Kosheck’s rematch.
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