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MMA

UFC 109 Predictions: Spike TV Prelims!

Mac Danzig (18-7-1) vs. Justin Buchholz (8-4)

The Fighters: Danzig came into the sixth season of the Ultimate Fighter as a favorite. The King Of The Cage and Pride vet had amassed enough quality wins to justify his presence in the UFC even without TUF. His post TUF career hasn’t gone as planned however. He’s 2-3 in the UFC and has lost three fights in a row. No UFC fighter that isn’t a star isn’t going to survive a four fight losing streak.

Bucholz has also struggled in his UFC career. He’s 1-3 in the UFC with his lone win being over a very green Corey Hill.

Both fighters desperately need a win and this is most definitely a “loser leaves town” match.

Breakdown: Despite his recent failings, 2-5 in his last seven fights, Danzig is a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite depending on where you look. That says a lot more about his opponent then it does him. Bucholz clearly isn’t a guy ready for UFC competition. He brought a 7-1 record into the Octagon but it was clearly inflated by fighting local bums. Look for Danzig to mix it up both standing and on the ground as he cruises to an easy decision win.

Prediction: Danzig Via Unanimous Decision

Melvin Guillard (22-8-2) vs. Ronnys Torres (14-1)

The Fighters: Can you believe Melvin Guillard is still only 26 years old? It certainly seems like he’s been around forever. Most likely it feels this way because Guillards career has been a consistent stream of disappointments. Every time he takes a step forward he seems to take two back the next fight. The former Ultimate Fighter Season 2 contestant began his career at 170 pounds. He went 1-1 at welterweight before dropping down to lightweight. Since dropping to lightweight Guillard is 5-4 in the UFC.

Guillards talent is enormous. He’s a gigantic lightweight whose sheer athleticism and explosiveness will remind you a lot of Kevin Randleman. Guillard has a great shot and terrific power in his hands. However, Guillard has an Achilles Heel. He is a terrible submission fighter. All four of his UFC losses have come via submission. If you remember he was dominating, understatement, Josh Neer before being stupidly caught in a triangle choke. It looked like someone attacked Neers face with a tack hammer (as Guillard stupidly jumped into Neers guard to finish him off he was caught in a triangle.) Most recently he was caught in a guillotine against Nick Diaz that could have easily been avoided. If he fought with any kind of game plan he could have easily won both those fights.

It’s also outside the cage that Melvin has had troubles. After his loss to Joe Stevenson, Guillard accused Stevenson of using HGH. Not so ironically after that fight Guillard was caught with cocaine in his system in a post fight drug test. He was fined $2,100 and suspended 8 months.

The reason Guillard, unlike so many fighters, is getting second and third chances is because he’s insanely talented. He has wins over Marcus Davis, Denis Siver and Gleison Tibau. Those are very quality wins and it’s insanely frustrating to watch Guillard not maximize his god given ability.

While Ronnys Torres is making his UFC debut the talented Brazilian is no push over. Torres is 14-1 and one of Brazils top prospects. He trains with the highly regarded, and highly underrated, Nova União team. The dude trains with Jose Aldo, Paulo Thiago and many other talented fighters.

Breakdown: Sadly for Guillard this fight seems to be designed for him to lose. As I said his Achilles Heel has always been his submission defense and that is the area that Torres excels at (7 of Torres 15 wins have come via submission.) If there’s one area of concern for Torres it’s that he might not be coming into this fight 100%. He had to pull out of Fight Night 18 and 19 with various injuries.

If Guillard wants to win this fight he needs to take a page out of Chuck Liddells book and reverse wrestle. Torres isn’t good enough to take Mevlin down and it’s unclear if he has that same knack for pulling guard effectively like Damien Maia does. Knowing Melvin he’ll stun him with a power shot and go in recklessly for a finish and get submitted.

Prediction: Torres via Armbar Round 2

*Bonus* Random Fun Fact: Torres holds a win over Luiz Azeredo. Azeredo is one of only 4 men to ever beat Anderson Silva. Azeredo also holds a win over top welterweight contender Paul Daley.

MMA

Kimbo Slice “305″ TapouT Signature Tee

Kimbo Slice is a ratings juggernaut. There is simply no other way to describe it. He’s fought twice on Spike TV and he’s been over 5 million viewers each time. That is just insane.

While Slice as a fighter is still developing at the advanced age of 35, he is a brand all to his own, and the UFC is giving him an avenue to make even more cash.

Kimbo’s newest TapouT shirt uses the area code of his Miami digs. When did repping your area code become cool? Was it when Reggie Bush started wearing “619″ on his eye black? Dethrone also has an area code shirt. I gotta get me a “516″ shirt.

MMA Warehouse can help you rep yo’ hood for 27.99. Slice’s shirt’s are always a litter cheaper than average.

For more Kimbo gear, check out The 3rd String Store.

MMA

Guida v. Sherk For UFC Versus Card…

Clay Guida might be back in the cage before we all thought. It turns out that Matt Erickson of The NW Indiana Times is reporting that Guida and Sean Sherk will throw down on March 21st, when the UFC premieres on Versus. Here is Bloody Elbow bringing the noise:

Two of the UFC’s most tenacious lightweights will lock horns in Colorado on March 21st, when Clay Guida takes on former lightweight champion Sean Sherk at UFC Fight Night 21 in Broomfield, Colorado, which will be broadcast live on Versus. Matt Erickson of the NW Indiana Times has the report:

A fight between former lightweight champion Sean Sherk and Chicago area native Clay Guida is in the works for March 21 on the UFC’s Ultimate Fight Night card in Denver, sources close to Sherk’s camp told The Times on Saturday — though bout agreements have not yet been signed.

Sherk was penciled in for a bout with Rafaello Oliveira, who was then switched out for Jim Miller, at UFC 108, but Sherk suffered an injury in training. This ends up as nearly a ten-month layoff for the Muscle Shark, who last saw action at UFC 98 last May in an upset loss to Frankie Edgar.

First thing is first: The NW Indiana Times is now being renamed The Sean Sherk Times. This Matt Erickson fellow must live in Sean’s house, because he is the same guy that broke Sherk’s exit from UFC 108.

Second, you’ll have to excuse me if I just don’t get this fight. Guida is coming off two losses to tippy-top flight competition and really needs a win to remain relevant. Sherk has pulled out of two consecutive fights with legit injuries, but people haven’t seen him since UFC 98 and are beginning to wonder how relevant he is. Both of these guys needed winnable fights.

More over, since both of these guys have similar styles, it could turn out to be a pretty mundane affair. Guida and Sherk are both phenomenal wrestlers with mediocre standup. If neither can get a takedown, we end up with a sub-par boxing match. I know, I know, Joe Rogan always gushed about how technical Sherk’s boxing is, but his short arms and lack of power keep him from being anything special on the feet. As for Guida, we all know his striking is lacking, and Florian and Sanchez both picked him apart standing up.

For now, I’m going to give the edge to Sherk. He’s just too strong, and it might be hard for Guida to take him down. Prove me wrong, Clay. Please?

MMA

Is The UFC Loading Up The Abu Dhabi Card?

Okay. Let me get this straight. On the same day that B.J. Penn says that his next fight is going to be on the UFC 112 card in Abu Dhabi, Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort is rumored to be on that same date?

Weird.

While the UFC is introducing their brand to the middle eastern audience, it seems weird that they would choose to defend two belts on the same night. Silva and Penn are two of the biggest draws that the UFC has in their pockets. I know for a fact that there are a ton of people out there who are excited to see The Spider pushed by a fighter who is at least close to his level. Is Vitor close to Silva’s level? Who knows? At the very least, I’m excited to find out.

As for Penn, there is a bit of a question about which weight class this fight will be in. If it’s going to be in April, then it could be a title defense. Assuming that the top two lightweights in contention right now are Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, it would give both of them a chance to train for the fight. Edgar is coming off a defeat of decent prospect Matt Veach, and Gray Maynard will fight this Monday against Nate Diaz. Assuming Maynard beats Diaz, then he would have more than two full months to train. Edgar last fought in December, so he even has a head start.

The other option is B.J. fighting at welterweight. It’s not that crazy to think. While Dana might have said that he needs to clean out the division, and that would take another win, it wouldn’t be that nuts to see him fight a top ten welterweight in an attempt to put together a massive show for their first trek into a new territory.

I’m not a fan of loading cards up like this. Look at last July and UFC 100. Sure, that was an awesome card. However, what happened after that? UFC 101 was headlined by B.J. Penn, and that is fine. However, 102 was Couture and Nog, which while it was an awesome fight, isn’t the strongest main event. They sold that card on the fact that Couture would be fighting in his home area of Portland. At UFC 103, Vitor Belfort defeated Rich Franklin. There needs to be an understanding about Franklin. America loves him, but he is just not a main event draw. A ton of people pointed at the Mayweather fight that night as the reason why the card barely drew, but I beleive that it’s more because Franklin just isn’t really a draw.

The next few cards suffered because of UFC 100. How much better would it look if the UFC held off GSP v. Alves til UFC 101, and had B.J. fight at UFC 102?

Couture and Big Nog could have been an awesome semi-main at either of those cards. Remember what the semi-main of 102 was? The wonderful Thiago Silva knockout of Keith Jardine from the “I saw that coming” file. Hell, even if they would have kept that and moved Franklin down to Semi-main, the cards would have looked better.

So, after all those words, let me say this. The source on Silva and Belfort is TATAME, which is a brazillian source. Let’s just say it’s not the New York Times. While it might be true, there is a chance that it’s not.

While it might seem incredible to look at a card like this and say “Sick, I’m so ordering that!” it’s just not good business for the month-to-month plan.

MMA

Was Last Night's Rashad Evans The Best We've Ever Seen?

I’ve been really critical of Rashad Evans. I think that he is remarkably talented, but has never really put his game together. At times, he’s shown the dominant wrestling that made him a star at Michigan State. At times, he’s shown the kind of striking that knocked Chuck Liddell into the fourth dimension. However, when were we going to see a complete Rashad Evans?

The answer: 01/02/10.

What we saw last night was the classic Greg Jackson gameplan. Strike to set up the takedown, and control the fight. Throughout the first two rounds, Evans dominated Thiago Silva by using crisp combination and following them up with strong takedowns. This gameplan reminded me of another Greg Jackson disciple, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. He just didn’t execute that plan nearly as well.

With a little review of the FightMetric stats, Evans was 8-for-16 on takedown attempts. That’s not exactly a St. Pierre-like number. Further review shows how dominant he was in round one. He was 4-for-4 on his takedown attempts. In round two, he was 3-for-7, and in the final frame, he was just 1-for-5, but he was scrambling for a takedown after being tagged by Silva. What does this all mean? It could mean that he gassed, but that doesn’t really sound like Rashad. More than anything, I think he got less aggressive as the fight went on and that wound up hurting his overall performance.

The other thing that Evans still needs to improve is his ability to keep his opponent neutralized once they are down. Many of Evans attempts at passing guard were neutralized by Silva’s black belt level BJJ. One could make an argument that what makes St. Pierre so good is not just the dominant takedowns, but his remarkable ability to keep his opponent from sweeping him. Let’s just put it this way: St. Pierre hasn’t had his guard passed since fighting Jason “Mayhem” Miller in 2005. Being on top more means more opportunity for offense.

If you look at the striking data on the report, it would suggest that Silva won the stand-up game with some authority, which I think he did. However, there was one area where you can definitely say that Evans won the battle, and that was in the clinch. Once Rashad was able to close the distance, he hit a very high number of his strikes, and those strikes set up the take downs.

Don’t get me wrong, Evans didn’t fight the perfect fight. However, he finally was able to execute a gameplan that display both his phenomenal wrestling as well as decent power striking. While he attempts to find the perfect balance, it’s good to see that we aren’t going to see the Machida game plan where he looks like a training dummy. This gameplan is the best bet for Evans to become a dominant champ, which I think he can.

Just like his buddy GSP.

NFL

Life Is Too Short

Today is a sad day. Chris Henry didn’t always make the right choices in life but he was trying to change. That’s why today is a sad day.

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Henry’s career was littered with problems off the field. He argued with everyone from teammates to parking attendants and had many brushes with law enforcement. Maybe he didn’t deserve the third and fourth chances he got in Cincinati but at age 26 he was finally putting it all together. He spoke to area youth groups warning children not to make the same mistakes he did. Its a shame that it took him so long to take his own advice.

What we can learn from the life and death of Chris Henry is that when given a natural ability – wether it be athletic, artistic or intellectual- you can’t waste it. Life is far too short.

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