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MMA

WEC 45 Main Card Predictions

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Scott Jorgensen

Mizugaki is a true bantamweight contender. He had won five in a row before walking into the WEC and getting a shot at Miguel Torres, losing an unanimous decision to the world’s best bantamweight at the time. He came back with a win over Jeff Curran, but it was a split decision and not all that impressive. He’s got to get this win over Jorgenson to remain relevant.

Jorgenson in replacing Damacio Page, who was injured during training for this fight. Jorgenson is 3-2 in the WEC, coming off a win against Noah Thomas. Let’s be honest here, this was supposed to be a showdown between two contenders, and now it’s a fight to show off Mizugaki. Jorgenson needs to take Mizugaki down and hold him there to win.

Prediction: Mizugaki via TKO

Joseph Benavidez v. Rani Yahya

Benavidez trains with Team Alpha Male and Urijah Faber. Which means that I love him desperately. His last fight against Dominick Cruz was a good contest, but he lost a unanimous decision that I thought was a lot closer than the scores would have indicated. A good wrestler with decent submissions, Benavidez is a good bantamweight prospect.

Yahya’s name is pronounced Ya-Ya. Like the kid from The Sandlot. He’s a former Abu Dhabi champion, which means that you know that his submissions are excellent. More evidence: he’s 3-0 in the WEC and all three of his fights have ended in submission of the night. The key to this matchup his Benavidez in Yahya’s guard. Can Yahya submit him, or will he finally get punched in the face and put in a bad situation?

Prediction: Benavidez via TKO

Anthony Njokuani v. Chris Hordecki

Njokuani is an exciting prospect for the WEC. He’s 2-1 in the WEC, and is only loss is to current lightweight interim champ Ben Henderson. His last two fights have ended with knockouts, and KO of the night honors. He’ll want to keep this fight on the feet, and if he does, he has a good shot to score yet another knockout.

His opponent is willing to stand and bang. Hordecki is a guy that WEC general manager has been trying to sign for a long time. He’s an IFL veteran who is 13-1 in his MMA career. He’s already said that he is planning to stand with the Nigeran-American. Don’t expect any submissions in this one.

Prediction: Njokuani via TKO

Donald Cerrone v. Ed Ratcliff

Cerrone has already said that is planning to drop to 145 lbs after this fight regardless of the outcome. He has been a top-tier WEC lightweight for a long time, and will be added to an already stacked featherweight division. In his loss to Ben Henderson, Cerrone put up a fight but ultimately was controlled from the top by Henderson and was unable to use his jiu-jitsu to get a victory. He’s well rounded, but at his best on the ground.

Ratcliff is 7-1 in his MMA career and has a 2-1 record in the WEC. He’s primarily a standup fighter that hits very hard. His best hope is to end this fight quickly with a KO, and if he doesn’t he might be in trouble.

Prediction: Cerrone via submission

MMA

WEC 44: Main Card Predictions

Danny Castillo v. Shane Roller

Castillo is a member of Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male which means that I’m sure big brother pushed for a job for him in the WEC. He’s 3-1 in the WEC, and hasn’t lost since losing to Donald Cerrone at WEC 34. He’s an excellent wrestler with a balanced all around game. He’s got some pretty decent wins, including his most recent over previously undefeated Ricardo Lamas.

Roller is also 3-1, and his only loss is to current WEC lightweight champ Benson Henderson. He’s also a strong wrestler, which means that I don’t that think that either of them will be scoring a bunch of takedowns. Roller has three submission victories, all of them coming by way of guillotine choke, a favorite of amateur wrestlers.

This should be a pretty interesting (or sloppy) striking match because you have two wrestlers who are standing up. Expect one powerful hook to end this one.

Prediction: Castillo via TKO

Rob McCullough v. Karen Darabedyan

Remember when “Razor Rob” was the king of the WEC lightweights? Seems like it was so long ago. He’s 4-2 in the WEC, but has lost two of his last four. He’s a muay thai specialist who loves to stand and bang, as two of his three submission victories have come from strikes, a cut, and dislocating Kit Cope’s ribs. No tapouts here, folks.

Darabedyan is Armenian, and a training parter of Karo Parisyan and Manny Gamburyan. That means that he comes from the same judo background. The difference that he was an excellent boxer before ever getting involved in MMA. With the good ground game, he has a huge advantage over McCullough. If you add that to his ground game, this almost sounds like Razor Rob is being served up as a sacrifice to a debuting fighter.

Prediction: Darabedyan via submission

Manny Gamburyan v. Leonard Garcia (#5 Featherweight)

Gamburyan is a TUF alumni who was deemed far too small for the UFC’s lightweight division. Banished to WEC, where he makes far less money, Manny had a mediocre debut against John Franchi. His biggest advantage in his his frame. He has a real low center of gravity, even for a featherweight. He’s kinda shaped like a bowling ball to steal a a phrase used to describe Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew. His judo is top notch, and he likely wants to take this fight to the ground.

Garcia is famous for his Sports Illustrated cover when he was getting beat by Roger Huerta. Also deemed too small for 155, he was sent to the UFC and he is 3-1. His one loss was his stoppage at the hands of Mike Thomas Brown in a fight for his title. Garcia loves to stand and bang, and wants to stay on the feet and throw hands with Gamburyan.

Prediction: Garcia via Unanimous Decision

Mike Thomas Brown (#1 Featherweight) v. Jose Aldo (#3 Featherweight)

Brown has now defended the WEC featherweight belt twice since winning it by knocking out Urijah Faber. He defeated Leonard Garcia, and defeat a handless Faber in the rematch. Brown is a HUGE 145, and has the power that goes with that size. He’s part of American Top Team which means two things. First, he gets some of the best training in the world. The other is something Joe Rogan says all the time: ATT has perfected weight cutting using things like IV fluids and pedialyte to the point where it would not shock me if Brown walked into the cage at 160 or heavier. He’s an all around solid fighter, but the really remarkable thing about him in his size.

Aldo is a hot prospect with an 8-0 and coming off one of the most impressive knockouts I’ve ever seen. He threw a flying knee eight seconds into his fight with Cub Swanson and put him out for food. His long lanky frame is perfect for muay thai. The Brazilian is just a supernova of explosiveness. He has good striking, and can finish fights quickly. He also is a black belt in BJJ under the same people that gave B.J. Penn his belt. He’s a pretty impressive fighter.

Expect it to stay on the feet.

Prediction: Aldo via TKO

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