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UFC 105: Main Card Predictions

Ross Pearson v. Aaron Riley

Pearson will make his debut as the TUF 10 lightweight winner in his home country of England. He was without a doubt the best lightweight on the show, and defeated Andre Winner on the Finale. He’s a balanced fighter with heavy hands and a pretty good ground game.

On the other hand, he’s taking Aaron Riley who another really interesting story. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, and one of his loss was a controversial stoppage to Shane Nelson. He then avenged that loss with a dominating decision victory. He’s 28 years old, and has begun training with Greg Jackson in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He’s got good wrestling and solid power. Really like what he brings to the table.

Prediction: Riley via Unanimous Decision

James Wilks v. Matt Brown

Wilks is the other winner from the US v. UK season of TUF. He lives in California, but is a British native. He specializes in BJJ, but has some stand-up as shown in his two TKO wins. His last fight was his victory over DaMarques Johnson at the TUF 9 finale. My main question is his ability to take a punch.

If anyone will test his chin, it’s “The Immortal” Matt Brown. Brown got his nickname from surviving a heroin overdose earlier in his life. The incredibly intense fighter that Forrest Griffin once called “Chuck Norris” is a good wrestler with good power. Brown is one of those never die fighters, as shown by his nickname.

Prediction: Brown via Unanimous Decision

Michael Bisping v. Denis Kang

Just as reminder about what happened last time Michael Bisping was in the cage, I bring you this.

YouTube Preview Image

Yea, that happened. Bisping is coming back off one of the worst knockouts that anyone as seen. Many people thought that he would be able to outquick Hendo, but he insisted on circling into the power hand of Henderson and eventually got pwned. While everyone has been crapping all over Bisping, He’s still a really good fighter.

Now, Britain’s MMA poster boy will try to get back on track against a really good veteran opponent in Denis Kang. Kang is an interesting case because he has been around for so long and never been a top contender. He’s 1-1 since joining the UFC, with a win over the absolutely awful Xaiver Foupa-Pokam, and a loss to Alan Belcher when he had an ankle injury. Kang is a well-rounded fighter with a ton of experience.

Jason and I disagree on this one, but I like Bisping as the better, more athletic fighter in this one.

Prediction: Bisping via unanimous decision

Mike Swick v. Dan Hardy

The winner of this one will be the next opponent for welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre. Swick has been a solider for the UFC fighting in two different weight classes. He’s lost only once, that coming to Yushin Okami, who was so much stronger than Swick at 185, that he moved down to 170. Swick is a solid all around fighter, but has shown a lot of explosiveness on his feet over the last few fights.

Hardy is the hometown favorite. The British loudmouth has some solid wins, and is 3-0 in the UFC. The win that put him on pace for this shot at the title was over Marcus Davis. It was a controversial decision victory in which Davis had his moments on the ground, which isn’t exactly normal for the former boxer. That showed the weakness in Hardy’s game. Hardy is purely a striker. Even if Hardy did get past Swick, what would the odds be against GSP?

This fight could be over if Swick gets even one takedown.

Prediction: Swick via submission

Randy Couture (#3 Light Heavyweight) v. Brandon Vera

This fight was thrown together because the UFC needed a main event for this card, but it’s actually turned into a pretty interesting fight to talk about.

Couture is 46. He’s also a freak of nature and is still the third best light heavyweight in the world according to our rankings (which will be updated after this card.) His wrestling is as good as it ever was, but the real improvement in his game has come in his boxing. His head movement is the best in MMA this side of Anderson Silva. This may sound scary, but this may be the best Randy Couture we’ve seen during his career, despite the fact that he coming off a loss to Big Nog.

Vera is coming off a win, but is a classic sports storyline that is now gracing MMA. He was all blue-chip, first round pick that never panned out, and now is making a comeback.

If you don’t remember, Vera was predicted to win both the light heavyweight and heavyweight titles because his Muay Thai was so good. He hit a lull in the middle of his career. He’s still 7-3 in the UFC, and his losses have come to Tim Sylvia, Fabricio Werdum and Keith Jardine. All of those guys are at least good enough to say that they aren’t bad losses. At least Sylvia used to be.

At light heavyweight full time now, Vera has consecutive wins over Krzysztof Soszynski, and Mike Patt. Can he be a potential champ in that division? Sure. He just needs to show me more than I have seen. A win over Randy Couture would go a long way towards proving himself to me.

I think that the key to this match-up is Couture’s wrestling against the BJJ of Brandon Vera. Can Vera mount any kind of offense if Couture is leaning on him? I just don’t if he can.

Prediction: Couture via Unanimous Decision

Looking for the undercard? We got ya.

Lookng for UFC 105 gear? Check out The 3rd String Store.

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