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Bowl Mania Day 17: The National Championship

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 7, 2010, at 3:24 am

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Record- 19-14
BCS Record: 2-2

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v Texas

I must admit, December 12th influenced my pick tremendously. Forget dates? Not as insane about this stuff as I am? Probably better off. December 12th was the date of the Big 12 and SEC championship games. One day. Roughly five hours. Two completely different situations.

In the early game (SEC Championship), you saw Alabama dominate Florida. Greg McElroy was efficient. Mark Ingram won the Heisman trophy. Alabama took the current royal family of College Football and threw them off the thrown without a second thought. It was 26-13 early in the fourth and ‘Bama never looked back. Oh, and they made Tim Tebow cry. Not an easy feat.

The win looks even better after watching Florida dismantle an already cracked Cincinnati team in the Sugar Bowl. Now, I know it’s unfair to judge a Cincinnati team that has had just about every bit of turmoil thrust their way in the last month. But the Bearcats were still undefeated. Maybe it was just the revenge mentality, Tim Tebow’s final “see that!” game, but how could you not be just a little more impressed with the job that Nick Saban’s crew did after watching Florida run around in a glorified scrimmage on Friday night.

Texas looked anything but dominant in the Big 12 championship game. Heck, although I disagree with the opinion, there is the thought that they didn’t deserve to win the game. Colt McCoy was bad, throwing no touchdowns and three interceptions. Clearly rattled by Ndamukong Suh and that imposing Nebraska defensive front, McCoy barely got his team into field goal range enough to keep pace with an also-stagnant Nebraska offense. If not for two bad mental mistakes by Nebraska on that final drive and I’m writing about Brian Kelly spurring Notre Dame for a shot at a title with the Bearcats of the Big East. An illegal procedure penalty and a horse collar may have changed the history of three schools….gotta love this stuff.

You may say its only one game for each team. But I think its telling because of the stage. Alabama played a better team and was dominant. Texas won because kickers are dumb.

Alabama’s defense, minus the obvious advantage of having Ndamukong Suh, is just as good as Nebraska’s, if not better. I like Alabama for the same reason’s I liked them to beat Florida.

They have more than one way to beat you.

Sure, stopping Mark Ingram is the key to beating Alabama, but I don’t think that its an if,than proposition. Greg McElroy, although not the owner of flashy numbers, doesn’t turn the ball over. For one game, could you see a combo of McElroy to Julio Jones and great defense beating a Texas team that has one offensive play (McCoy to Shipley- go on 3!). I sure could.

Shut down Colt McCoy, you win. Shut down Mark Ingram and you still have to account for some things.

I entered the year saying that Alabama was the most overrated team in the country. I end it saying that they are the nations best.

Wow, I love this game.

The Pick: Alabama

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 16

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 6, 2010, at 4:08 am

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Record: 18-14
BCS Record: 2-2

Gmac Bowl- Central Michigan v. Troy

For a moment, I’m going to pretend that you care about this game. I know, it’s a major buzz kill. All the anticipation for the five BCS games and we get this one thrown right in the middle. I, myself, think the timing is odd. If I’m in charge of the NCAA, I don’t play a non-BCS game once the ball is kicked from the Rose Bowl tee at a little after five on New Years Day.

As much as I think that the non-BCS bowls serve there purpose for the two weeks prior to the Rose Bowl, the buzz goes out the window after the BCS starts. Even Saturday was weird. It had to happen because of when New Years Day fell, but I found it hard to get excited about the Liberty Bowl after entering the fantastic abyss that is the BCS on Friday night. I did, but I found it harder then it was prior to New Year’s Day.

But if there is one reason to watch tonight, it’s Dan LeFevor.

It’s a moniker that gets stale almost as soon as it’s rendered, but I’ll write it one final time. Dan LeFevor is the best player in the country that you’ve never heard of. Besides TCU’s Jerry Hughes, I think LeFevor is the best player playing in a non-automatic qualifying conference right now.

A four year starter, LeFevor has thrown for 27 touchdowns and run for 14. One more touchdown in the bowl game and LeFevor is the proud owner of the all-time college football record for touchdowns. He currently shares the title with Colt Brennan and Graham Harell.

The quarterback has made Central Michigan into a mid-major powerhouse. This year’s MAC championship was the third in LeFevor’s four years. The Chippewas finished this year 11-2, their only losses coming to Boston College and Arizona. The team scores 33 points a game with basically one offensive option- LeFevor. He led the team in rushing by a wide margin.

The defense is also decent, allowing under 18 points a game and yielding nearly 100 less points than Troy. Although they will be missing their head coach (on his way to put together some broken hearts in Cincinnati), I think LeFevor will be enough to beat Troy.

Troy, although champs of the Sun Belt, doesn’t have a win on their schedule that sniffs the term impressive. Does Middle Tennessee impress you? How about Florida-Atlantic?

If I’m Dan LeFevor, I’m not scared

The Pick: Central Michigan

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 15

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 5, 2010, at 2:57 am

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Record: 17-14
BCS Record: 1-2

FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa v Georgia Tech

How good is Iowa? It was one of my favorite debates of the entire season. It was the biggest disagreement between College Football Tonight co-host Jesse Lauterbach and I in a few seasons. What made it such a good debate is that both sides made sense.

Iowa were the kings of the close victory. They beat Northern Iowa by a point to open up the year. They squeaked a three point win out of Arkansas State. Michigan had them on the ropes, only to loose by 2. Finally, the Hawkeyes needed a last second touchdown pass to escape Michigan State.

That’s four close calls against teams that aren’t exactly Alabama or Texas. Two ways to look at this.

1. Teams in the top five in the country should not be needing miracle after miracle to top foes like Michigan and Michigan State. Teams in the top five don’t have to hang on to beat Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. Like it or not, College Football is not only about wins and losses. It’s about who you beat, how you beat them, and when you beat them. Escaping mediocrity once is fine, twice (depending on the circumstances) is passable. But four times? Four times is a sign of a problem….

2. There comes a point when luck isn’t a reasonable explanation. After one Houdini act, luck is a reasonable explanation. Two, it gets hairy, but depending on the circumstances, it is feasible. But to have the fortitude to come back and win like that on four separate occasions isn’t luck. It says something about your team to have that kind of come-back ability. There comes a point when credit has to be given to teams that routinely find ways to win. It’s the Bruce Springsteen theory. When it comes to luck, you make your own.

I fall on the side of argument number two. Teams don’t just get lucky four times. It doesn’t happen in sports.

I think all questions about Iowa went out the window in the second to last game against Ohio State. In what was the defacto Big 10 championship game, Iowa went on the road and took the Buckeyes to overtime without quarterback Rickey Stanzi and with a banged up Adam Robinson. Freshman James Vadenberg threw three picks in substitute duty for Iowa, but they were almost able to overcome it. Robinson gutted it out for 74 yards on 20 carries.

The performance showed something that a lot of us already knew. Iowa is a feisty, resilient football team. There a football team that doesn’t quit, even when they are at Ohio State with a freshman calling the shots. Those types of teams, teams that are mentally strong usually do well in bowl games. Especially big ones.

I think the Hawkeyes will do well offensively. Georgia Tech allowed 24 points a game and yielded nearly 120 more points then Iowa did. Ricky Stanzi is back and Adam Robinson is healthier than he was against Ohio State.

The challenge for Iowa is stopping a dynamic Georgia Tech offense. The Yellow Jackets run the triple option and are 11th in total offense in the FBS. Jonathan Dwyer ran for over 1000 yards and 14 touchdowns this year. He averaged over 6 yards per carry. Josh Nesbit ran for 18 touchdowns and threw for 10, eight of which went to Demaryius Thomas.

But Iowa’s defense is ranked 11th in the country as well. They allow less than 16 points a game. The strength of the defense is the line, excelling in run stopping. I think they’ll be able to at least control the triple option and win the game.

The Pick: Iowa

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 14

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 4, 2010, at 4:17 am

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Record: 17-13
BCS Record: 1-1

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl- TCU v. Boise State

I get it. You hate the match up. You think it’s a gigantic cop out to pair these two up. You think it’s the BCSs’ maniacal plan to pull the wool over our eyes and not have a non-AQ (automatic qualifier) embarrass a big time school like Utah did to Alabama all year. I’ll try to say this lightly because I do see why someone would think that.

You’re dead wrong.

The thought process is not insane, in fact I giggled a little once the match-up was announced three weeks ago, but it is dead wrong. I know sports fans, especially cynical BCS detractors, hate to hear this phrase but it absolutely applies here-coincidence.

Yes, that’s right. Coincidence. There was no Halderman-like conversation in the parking lot of BCS headquarters. There was no elaborate plan to shut the BCS detractors up (like that would ever happen) and it wasn’t a embarrassment-saving measure. Remember folks, the BCS isn’t the NCAA tournament. There isn’t a committee who decides the match ups nor is this a twelve angry men situation in some underground college football bunker.

The BCS is a computer. It spits out numbers. It doesn’t have agenda’s. It doesn’t care about embaressment. And it sure could give a you-know-what about what you think of it. The logic actually makes a lot of sense. Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU were all undefeated. You had to rank the three undefeated teams from major conferences in front of the two from the WAC and MWC. It’s simple college football logic. How do you determine the order of undefeateds in a ranking situation? Strength of schedule! You cannot make a coherent argument that TCU or Boise State had a tougher schedule then any of those top three teams.

Just can’t do it.

Theirs been talk this week that Nebraska blowing the Big 12 championship locked TCU out of the national title game. That’s untrue. Had Nebraska won, Cinncinatti would have been playing for a title, not TCU. It’s not dumb. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s College Football logic.

Try it sometime.

Now that we’ve stopped whining about how “wrong” the match up is, lets focus on what is the best BCS game this side of Alabama/Texas.

I’ve said all year that TCU is the best non-AQ team in the country and I’m not about to come off that. Not only do they have the number one defense in the country, but the offense is almost just as good. This isn’t the same old “dominant defense, lack luster offense” (or vice-versa) story’s that usually come with non-aq’s. TCU ranks 5th in points scored per game with 40.7, fourth in total yards per game with 469.1, and fifth in rushing yards per game with 257.

The Horned Frogs left no doubt in anyone’s mind this year that they were the real deal. In TCU’s last seven wins, the closest anyone came to beating them was Utah. The final score of that game was 55-28. In fact, you could argue that the two most impressive wins came in the two most important games of the year for TCU, Utah and a 38-7 demolishing of #16 BYU…at BYU. If you question whether this team can handle the big stage, those two games put those doubts to bed.

Offensively, they run the football with the two T’s- Turner and Tucker. Senior Joseph Turner led the club with 732 yards and 11 touchdowns. Matthew Tucker finished with 667 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Although the passing game is not as highly ranked as the defense or the running game, quarterback Andy Dalton is hardly a liability. Dalton threw 22 touchdowns this year and only 5 interceptions. He also ran for more then 500 yards this year, one of four players who have done that for TCU.

I see the Horned Frogs as a shade more complete then Boise State. They boast the number one defense in the country, allowing only 12.4 yards a game. Jerry Hughes is up their with Nebraska’s Suh as one of the most dominant defensive players in the country. Hughes earned All-American honors after his 11 ½ sack 2009.

While Boise State’s defense is nothing to overlook (17 points a game), this is a team defined by offense. Kellen Moore threw for 39 touchdowns this season and only three interceptions. That’s a heck of a ratio. Jeremy Avery ran for over 1000 yards and six touchdowns. Doug Martin had 14 touchdowns. A big loss for the Broncos may be Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with fourteen touchdowns. Pettis has a lower leg fracture, but is a game time decision.

So why am I so confident in a TCU victory?

Dominance. Maybe it’s nit-picking, but with a game this close, you have to nit-pick. Boise State only beat Tulsa by a touchdown and Louisiana Tech by 10. TCU’s close calls came against better teams. Clemson has one of the best offensive players in the country in C.J Spiller and Air Force has a defense that is actually comparable to TCU. When analyzing non-AQ BCS teams, I think you have to look at dominance to make up for the obvious lack of schedule strength. Over the course of the season, TCU was more dominant then Boise State. TCU beat two ranked teams by a combined 58 points. Enough said

In last year’s Poinsettia Bowl match up, TCU held the Bronco offense in check. Kellen Moore had no touchdowns and one interception. The scary part about that? TCU is better this year. I don’t know if Boise State is.

The Pick: TCU

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 13

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 2, 2010, at 4:05 am

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Record: 15-10
BCS Games: 1-1

International Bowl- Northern Illinois v South Florida

Northern Illinois has seen its fair share of tough losses this season. It started week one with an eight point loss to Wisconsin. It continued week four with a three point loss to Idaho and came to a frustrating head during a 20-19 loss to Toledo. The point? They aren’t quite there yet, but they are close.

The Huskies score a lot of points. Averaging roughly 30 points a game while rushing for 202 a contest will prove difficult to stop for any defense. Running back Chad Spann ran for 945 yards and 19 touchdowns, while Me’Co Brown added 645 yards and four touchdowns.

The Husky defense finished second in the MAC, allowed just 21 points per game. Watch out for Jake Coffman. Coffman, a junior, had 7 ½ sacks this season.

South Florida is a hard team to figure out. Early in the year, they looked like they might have a shot at becoming that third team in the mix in the Big East. After being crushed by Pitt and Cincinnati (clearly the class of the conference), the Bulls knocked off #21 West Virginia. Then came the most perplexing loss of the season.

A 31-0 loss at Rutgers saw the Bulls run for less then a yard per carry against the Scarlet Knights. Two picks by B. J Daniels and South Florida headed to the bus without their pride or their top 25 ranking. They ended the season on a two game loosing streak with losses to Miami and Uconn.

I can’t pick a team in a bowl situation that is this unpredictable. The defenses are almost identical and the Northern Illinois offense is better. South Florida will have trouble scoring in the one.

The Pick: Northern Illinois

Pappajohns.com Bowl- South Carolina v Connecticut

You have to feel for Connecticut. No team should ever have to go through what they went through this season. The death of a teammate is something you just can’t prepare for. After three heart wrenching losses following the death of Jasper Howard, Uconn reeled off three consecutive emotional wins.

The team runs the ball extremely well. Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon combined for 27 touchdowns this season. Todman racked up 1152 yards and Dixon had 967. The Huskies will have to rely on the running game because the quarterback situation is not “bowl-winning material”. Both Cody Endres and Zach Frazer (Notre Dame transfer) struggled with interceptions this year.
South Carolina can stop the run. In an upset win over #18 Clemson to end the year, the Gamecocks held C.J Spiller to only 18 yards. They held the entire Clemson team to only 48 yards. But stoping the run, while it has happened, isn’t a guarantee for Steve Spurriers club. Against Alabama, Heisman winner Mark Ingram tore South Carolina up for a career day. But then again, that was Mark Ingram

South Carolina will need to play tight defense because they have the second worst scoring offense in the country. I think they will score just enough, though, to come out on top.

The Pick: South Carolina

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Mississippi

I loved Mississippi this year. I liked Jevon Sneed to have a Heisman caliber year. I liked the Rebels to win the SEC west and prime themselves for a showdown with Florida in the SEC championship game. I liked them to finally get that BCS at-large birth. Didn’t quite turn out that way for good ol’ Eli Manning’s alma matter.

They suffered an early loss to South Carolina. Jevon Sneed struggled with interceptions and Alabama out classed them in almost every way. Running back Dexter McCluster had some monster games down the stretch, but struggled to find a rhythm early in the season and missed the Northern Arizona game. McCluster ran for 985 yards and six touchdowns.

Oklahoma State’s season was eerily similar. They came in with big dreams, lost to Houston early, and just missed getting back to where they started the year, finishing 2009 ranked 19th in the country.

But that’s not to say that the Cowboys don’t have a legitimate excuse for the late season failings. Star receiver Dez Bryant was suspended by the NCAA mid-season because he hung out with Dion Sanders. (Stupid Dez, everyone knows that the NCAA doesn’t allow thinking about an NFL career during the season. Come on!)

Quarterback Zac Robinson threw 15 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. Keith Totson ran for over 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns. The defense is good against the run, allowing under a 100 yards a game. This will be key. Assuming the Cowboys shut down McCluster, I don’t trust Jevon Sneed to beat Oklahoma State by himself. Never trust a man with 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Best part about this game? Pat Summeral on the call…Oh, Pat….

The Pick: Oklahoma State

Alamo Bowl- Texas Tech v Michigan State

Hey, I wonder how Texas Tech will play when there’s not a fear of torture after the game? This is one of the cases where I expect a team to play well after loosing a coach. My guess, based on comments after Mike Leach was fired earlier this week, is that his players were none to fond of everyone’s favorite pledge master coach.

They talked about relief. They talked about relaxation. They said all the things that will probably lead to a big outburst in the bowl game. And don’t forget, this is still the run and shoot offense (just today, all of the running and shooting will be on the field).

Just like you would expect a Texas Tech quarterback to do, Taylor Potts threw for over 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns. The team scored 440 points this season and nearly forty points per game. Nine receiver caught 20 or more passes.

Some have said that the Texas Tech offense is lost without Mike Leach. I don’t think you will see that until next year. The players are the same, the assistants are the same and I think its pretty clear that they all hated Leach. To me, that’s a recipe for some Michigan State hurtin’.

Michigan State is also involved in some controversy. 11 players were suspended for roles in a dorm room brawl. This, plus the fact that they allowed 1500 yards to their last three Big 10 opponents spells bad day for Michigan State.

The Pick: Texas Tech

One More for the Road-

Liberty Bowl- Arkansas v East Carolina

Watching Ryan Mallet is always fun. Arkansas was good down the strech, winning four in a row before almost knocking off LSU in OT.

The Pick: Arkansas

NCAAF

Bowl Mania Day 12

By Jordan Lauterbach

January 1, 2010, at 4:38 am

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Record: 11-9

Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Oregon

I’ve mentioned it on the air many times in the last few weeks, but I don’t think I’ve written it here. I was dead wrong about Oregon. Alabama too, but we’ll save that crow for next week. In terms of the amount of good teams, you could make an argument that this was the hardest Pac-10 to win in years. Sure, USC has been one of the premier teams in the country for virtually the entire decade, but when has the Pac-10 had as much depth as it currently does? Maybe it was a direct product of having a bulldozing power house like USC take a year off, but this was the best Pac-10 I’ve seen in a long long time.

Oregon lost the heart of their defense in Tommy Chang and suspended their star running back after the first week of the season. Things looked grim for the Ducks. Then we found out how good LeMichael James and Jeremiah Massoli were. James stepped in for Blount at the running back position and actually made people forget about the pre-season Heisman candidate. James ran for 1476 yards and 14 touchdowns. When Blount was reinstated mid season (I guess all is forgiven when you have a real shot at a title), James remained the feature back. I think that says more about the kid than anything else. You know you’re good when a preseason Heisman trophy candidate can’t steel some of your carries.

I love the way the Ducks use Legarette Blount now. For example, in the defacto Pac-10 championship game against Oregon State, James had 25 carries and Blount had nine. He comes in fresh when the defense is on it’s heals. You cannot ask for anything more, if you’re the Ducks. No one talked about it because Blount only played half the season, but this is the best running back tandem in the country.

…and Ohio State might just be the team to stop them. The Buckeye’s have the number five rush defense in the country. They allowed under 14 points a game in a weak Big 10. But I’m always worried about Ohio State on a big stage in January. If history has taught you anything, it’s don’t pick Ohio State in a BCS game. I’ve done it before and gotten burned and won’t do it this year.

Oregon has too many ways to beat you offensively. Part of me, despite the defense, really thinks that Ohio State was the product of a poor conference and is at the low end of the totem pole when it comes to ranking BCS teams 1 through 10. I mean, after all, they are #8. I don’t think Jim Tressel has figured out how to use his quarterback and that will hurt him on a big stage.

The Pick: Oregon

Sugar Bowl- Florida v Cincinnati

Pat Forde of ESPN.com wrote a fantastic piece on how this could be the final game of the Florida dynasty. Ranked from most to least impact on the program, tonight is-

1. The final game for Tim Tebow

2. The final game for many of these defensive players because of the amount of juniors that are going to head for the pros this year.

3. Many of the coordinators final games before they head for head coaching positions

4. Urban Meyer’s “final game”.

I put the Urban Meyer story last because I sincerely believe that he’ll be back on the sideline game one 2010. If not game one 2010, then absolutely game one 2011. The more the story unravels, the more I think it was a rash decision based on a very unfortunate health situation by Meyer last week. I don’t believe for a second that he ever wanted to quit coaching. I think he was scared by his health issues over the last month and phrased the announcement incorrectly last Saturday.

But regardless, next year is going to be a down year for the Gators. This will be their last stand. I love Cinncinatti’s offense, but I get the feeling that they were shocked and hurt by Brian Kelly leaving for South Bend last month. Sometimes when a coach leaves before the bowl game a team is inspired, whether it be for revenge or some other reason.

I don’t buy that Florida won’t play hard because they lost out on a shot to play for the BCS national title game. I actually think it will work the other way. The Gators are angry. They wasted a shot to put a cap on a great era with a national title. Tim Tebow doesn’t want to go out a looser. This defense doesn’t want to go out losers. Don’t think that it’s lost on these players that it’s the last night of the Florida Gators as we know them.

The defense that allowed 12 points a game this season will hold the Bearcat offense in check and the final night of the Florida dynasty will be more comparable to last year’s national title then this year’s failure in the SEC championship game.

The Pick: Florida

Non-BCS picks: for the record….

Capitol One Bowl- Penn State over LSU
Gator Bowl- Florida State over West Virginia
Outback Bowl- Auburn over Northwestern

Tune in to College Football Tonight at 10pm on wcwpsports.com for all the Rose Bowl wrap up talk and much more…..

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Bowl Mania Day 17: The National Championship

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