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By Jason Comack  December 15, 2009, at 9:03 pm  Question: How does a three team trade involving two 0f the top ten pitchers in baseball get even more complicated?
Answer: Billy Beane sticks his nose into it.
This trade is a lot to digest.
PHILLIES GET
RHP Roy Halladay (from Toronto)
RHP Phillippe Aumont (from Seattle)
OF Tyson Gillies (from Seattle)
RHP Juan Ramirez (from Seattle)
$6 million cash (from Toronto)
MARINERS GET
LHP Cliff Lee (from Philadelphia)
BLUE JAYS GET
*C Travis d’Arnaud (from Philadelphia)
*RHP Kyle Drabek (from Philadelphia)
*1B/3B Brett Wallace (from Oakland)
A’S GET
*OF Michael Taylor (from Philadelphia via Toronto)
Now let’s break down this complicated trade.
The headline is the Phillies going from Lee to Halladay. Is that an upgrade? Yes, but not as big of one as you think. Lee was lights out last year and Halladay has shown subtle signs of decline and at best your adding one win. This trade had more to do with finances then it does baseball. Halladay was willing to take a “hometown discount” to play for the Phillies, Lee was not. Halladay’s extension is below market value, not in terms of per year, but in terms of length. Halladay will sign a 3 year 60 million extension that could total $80 million if a 2014 option vests. Considering John Lackey just signed a 5 year $85 million dollar deal 4 years and $75.75 (or 5 and $95.75 million) seems reasonable for Halladay.
In essence the Phillies are taking a bit of a risk here. They tried to extend Lee and it went no where. Lee is seeking Santana/Sabathia money and while that might be a little unrealistic he’s definitely worth more then John Lackey. Again this trade comes down to the length of the contract. The Jays would rather control Halladay for 4 or 5 years then Lee for 6 or 7. Considering that one injury can dramatically alter a pitchers career it’s hard not to agree with that logic.
How you evaluate this deal for Philly really comes down to your opinions of the prospects they got versus what they gave up.
The Phillies had to part with three of their top prospects to get this done.
- Michael Taylor, 24, is a little older then most prospects but he’s also much more polished. Taylor killed AA pitching this year and quickly moved on to AAA. At best he’s an everyday right fielder with some pop and solid base running skills. However, his path to the majors was blocked in Philly with Ibanez, Victorino and Werth manning the outfield. By the time a spot opened up Taylor would be close to 26 and wouldn’t be much of a prospect anymore. With OF prospect Dominic Brown also nipping at his heels Taylor was clearly expendable.
- Travis D’Arnaud, 20, is a defensive minded catching prospect. He’s very solid defensively and has good plate discipline. D’Arnaud struggled after moving up from low A to A and needs to develop power to be considered an elite prospect. Without power D’Arnaud isn’t anything special.
- I’ve already written about Kyle Drabek at length. He’s the key piece the Jays are getting back but I think there’s much hype about Drabek then there is substance.
The Phillies are also getting prospects back to help replenish their farm system.
- Phillipe Aumont, 20, has the potential to develop into a front line pitcher. His numbers at high A were very solid (3.24 ERA, 9.45 K/9.) Aumont moved to AA where at first glance stats would indicate he struggled, he went 1-4 with a 5.02 in 17.2 innings. However, his K/9 rose to 12.23 and his FIP was 3.60 indicating he dealt with a great deal of bad luck. An absurd .436 BABIP is the most likely culprit of his inflated ERA. Seattle had been exclusively using him in the bullpen and it remains to be seen how Philly develops him.
- Juan Ramirez, 21, is a hard throwing pitcher whose beauty may be in the eye of the beholder. Ramirez is almost all projection at this point as his raw stuff is a lot better then his numbers. At worst he’ll be a power reliever.
- Tyson Gillies, 21, exploded at high A last year batting .341/.430/.486. Of course that average may been unsustainable as he boasted a .395 BABIP.
Obviously the Phillies gave up a ton but they got back very solid prospects, as well as $6 million dollars.
For the Mariners it’s much more simple to evaluate. They got Lee for Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies and that my friends is highway robbery. At best Lee leads Seattle to a division crowd, enjoys playing in a pitchers park – with a great defense behind him – and signs a long term deal. At worst Lee plays for one year, the M’s miss the playoffs and they get two first round picks as compensation when he leaves. Hard to find a downside to this deal for Seattle.
For Toronto they shed Roy’s $16 million dollar salary (although they only save $10 million dollars) and begin to rebuild. They get D’Arnaud, Drabek and Brett Wallace (from Oakland.) Wallace was the centerpiece of the Matt Holliday trade but Oakland soon learned that he can’t play third base and that kills his value. Toronto hopes he’ll replace Lyle Overbay as early as 2011.
It’s a tough pill to swallow if your a Blue Jay fan. After all the Hallday hype all they could get for him was D’Arnaud, Drabek and Wallace. That has to be disappointing.
Of course we can’t forget the Athletics stuck their nose into this deal. Classic Billy Beane…”Wait there’s a trade going on! Why am I not involved!” He trades Carter for Taylor the rare prospect for prospect swap. Obviously Beane feels Wallce ceiling is lower as he’s a 1B/DH type, while Taylor could probably play right field for the A’s tomorrow.
So to recap:
A+ for Seattle, B+ for Toronto, B for Oakland, C- for Toronto. I just don’t think they got back any 5 star “can’t miss” type prospects. Remember when they were asking for Hughes or Chamberlain and Montero? What they got is a long, long way from that.
By Jason Comack December 8, 2009, at 4:12 pm Before we get to the particulars lets talk about the main attraction.
Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that the Yankees have acquired OF Curtis Granderson as part of a three-team blockbuster deal with the Tigers and Diamondbacks. As part of the three-way deal, Detroit will receive right-handers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth from Arizona and Coke and Jackson from the Yanks. The D’Backs, meanwhile receive in return in Edwin Jackson from the Tigers and Kennedy from the Yanks
Granderson is a great defensive centerfielder, with tremendous power and excellent base-running skills. What’s not to love?
- He hit 30 home runs batting in a pitchers park. Of those 30 home runs only 10 came at home. 40 home runs is not out of the question with the Yanks short porch in right.
- Home runs aren’t the only thing Curtis brings to the table, he’s an extra base hit machine. He hit 13 triples last season and and 23 in 2007. His career slugging percentage is .484. His career high was .552 in 2007.
- People will complain about his .249 batting average but that was an anomaly. He’s a career .271 hitter. His down year can be blamed on a low BABIP (.276) his career BABIP is .323. Players like Ichrio and Granderson can maintain an inflated BABIP because of their speed.
- You can also blame his low batting average on a sudden dip in his infield hit percentage. He maintained career average of about 9% that suddenly dipped to 3.5% last season.
- He also stole 20 bases last season, while only getting caught 6 times. He stole 26, a career high, in 2007.
- While Granderson strikes out too much he does generate walks. He routinely draws 70+ walks and has a career on base percentage of .344
- Did I mention that Granderson is a superb defensive center fielder? Career he’s posted an average of a 21.2 UZR as a center-fielder. Per every 150 games he saves roughly 5.2 runs. That number doesn’t even take into account how much better as a whole the Yankee outfield will now be with Curtis pushing Melky to left.
- If you believe in Win Shares; Granderson has been routinely been worth +4 wins a season.
I’ve yet to see the downside. He’s only 29, has a great contract (3 years, 25 million) and is regarded as a great clubhouse guy with a tremendous personality. He makes the Yankees better in every aspect.
As for what the Yankees gave up?
The big piece is Austin Jackson but consider this.
- Jackson completed his run through the minors and never developed power. Without power he’s a guy who will hit for average, steal some bases, play solid defense and strike out a ton. Without power Jackson isn’t an elite prospect. Kennedy is a guy who was never an elite prospect to begin with.
- Even pre-injury and the ‘07 disaster Kennedy topped out at best a #3 type starter. A control pitcher, Kennedy, needed to pitch in the NL. If he develops it’ll be because of that not because the Yankees poorly evaluated him.
- Coke is what he is. A situational lefty reliever. Those guys are easy to come by. He’s a useful player but the Yankees have Damatso Marte.
As for the other teams involved in the trade:
I think the Tigers did as well as they could. They chopped 10+ million off their payroll while getting back solid prospects. They can hope Jackson develops power, Coke helps shore up their awful ‘penn and Schlereth is someone to keep an eye on. The key is Scherzer a young strikeout pitcher, under team control for the near future who seems ready to break out.
The Tigers didn’t get any better but considering every team in the MLB knew they needed to make a deal they did very well for themselves.
I don’t get what Arizona was thinking. I’d rather having Scherzer then Jackson long term, factoring in salary. And while Kennedy should thrive as a 4/5th starter in the NL aren’t those guys a dime a dozen? I can’t make any sense of this deal for them.
By Anthony De Franco November 6, 2009, at 1:30 pm Ok, What?
From Rotoworld:
Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports that the Brewers have traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez.
Hardy was a goner with the Brewers committing to Alcides Escobar at shortstop and the Twins have long been a rumored destination for him, so this deal makes sense. Gomez fell out of favor in Minnesota after arriving in the Johan Santana trade, but the speedy center fielder will be given a clear path to everyday playing time in Milwaukee as the replacement for free agent Mike Cameron. Nov. 6 – 11:57 am et
Okay, I get that J.J. Hardy was a goner. I get that they think that Alcides Escobar is the next big thing, but coouldn’t they do better than Carlos Gomez? Gomez has sick range in centerfield, but his bat really leaves something to be desired. How do you expect to run out a centerfielder who hits .246/.292/.346 and expect to make the Playoffs?
This just goes back to certain teams obsession with speed and defense. While Gomez is a great defender, does that lineup have enough pop in it with Ryan J. Braun and Prince Fielder to just give up an out in the lineup?
As for Hardy, he was a +5 win player in his heyday. The Twins want him to just get back to about half that. His .229/.350/.357 was accompanied by a 45 pont drop in his BABIP. There’s reason to beleive that he will improve, and regain some semblance of his previous form.
In short, the Twins got better, and the Brewers fans are likely to be really pissed by May.
By Anthony De Franco November 3, 2009, at 9:01 pm Five Years, 85 million.
That’s likely what it would cost to make sure that what’s happening to the Yankees right now won’t happen again anytime in the near future. That’s what it would cost to have stop Tim Mccarver stop making reference to pitcher’s from his era (before the dinosaurs, by the way) pitching on two days rest. That’s what would make sure that the name Chad Gaudin is never said in the same sentenced as “starting game 5 of the World Series” ever, ever again.
That’s what it will likely cost for the Yankees to get John Lackey.
I’ve never been a real big fan of signing free agent pitchers. Generally, they cost far too much, and almost never perform up to the standard that they set before they became multi-millionaires. Just bring up the name Barry Zito in front of a San Francisco Giants fan and pass out the entire cast of Fast Forward.
As much as that thought makes me squirm in my chair, I can’t take this “three days rest” thing anymore. I don’t want to hear about C.C. Sabathia doing it, it’s clear that the dude is a freak. He’s just a huge horse of a man that can take the ball every other day and dominate one of the league’s best lineups while barely breaking a sweat.
What no one has mentioned about that this whole pitching on short rest thing is that pitchers are a grand total of 19-34 in the division playoff era on three days rest. They haven’t told you that only the Minnesota Twins of 1991 have won a World Series recently by pushing up their entire staff. They didn’t tell you that starting A.J. Burnett on short rest was a TERRIBLE idea.
The truth of the situation is that it wasn’t the fact that his stuff wasn’t crisp that screwed A.J. It was the fact that the mix in his schedule screwed with his frequently discussed head. He still threw gas, but just couldn’t locate his curveball for anything. That was mental more than physical.
Even better, let’s put his personal catcher in that sabotages the end of the team’s batting lineup?
How many different ways did the Yanks want to screw themselves in this game?
I’m not one to just complain and not offer a solution, so let’s think about how we can keep this craziness from happening in the future. The first would be to finally stretch out Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes and just leave them the hell alone. No more of this situational pitching or putting them in the bullpen because there’s a hole. They are starting pitchers. That is the most important position in the game and that’s where they belong. With a full season to gauge their progress (which will be far superior if Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi let them be) the team can just let them go in the playoffs.
But, there is another way. The team can take a grizzled, veteran pitcher who wants the ball every time the manager is willing to give it to them. A guy who has a winning pedigree and a career 3.12 ERA in the postseason. A guy who screamed at his manager for taking him out in a tight game because all he wanted was to pitch out of the jam he got into.
All it would take is a commitment of five years and about 85 million bucks.
By Anthony De Franco October 27, 2009, at 6:38 pm This really makes no sense. Mets fans, you need a serious fan intervention.
I know this World Series match up is the worst thing that you could have imagined when the season started six months ago. If you knew this would have happened back in April, you guys probably wouldn’t have bothered to even show up. Hell, I know a Met fan that has denounced baseball and claims that “he’s ready for the season to just be over.”
I get that this season didn’t go as planned. I get the Mets fans who are abstaining from rooting interest in this series. I even get those Met fans that are refrain from watching the series. If it’s that painful, then I won’t ask you to watch.
The Mets fans that annoy me are the ones who are choosing to support their division rival rather than their big brother from across town. I really need someone to explain this to me.
I know that Mets fans are far more anti-Yankee than most Yankee fans are anti-Met. I know that Mets fans have this “little brother” complex that keeps them awake at night. All they want is to prove that they can hang with their big brother and all his cool, older friends in the American League, but they can’t. They are always exposed for what they are. The cute red-headed little brother in the coke bottle glasses that still has a ton of growing up to do.
If the Yanks are the big brother in this little analogy, that would make the Phillies the neighborhood bully. For the last few years, they’ve dragged the Mets around the playground, and winning a championship last year didn’t make the situation any better. This season, with the Mets being pathetically awful, there was never a chance that the little redheaded kid was going snap and blindside the bully with a two by four when he least expected.
Now, here comes big brother to save the day. After the Phillies have ruled the playground for over a year, the Yankees are coming to take back what is rightfully theirs. The World Series has been exclusive property of the Yanks since it’s inception. They’ve occasionally let other teams borrow it, but no one has ever kept it for more than a little while.
So, why can’t the Mets put aside sibling rivalry and just enjoy watching the Phils get punched in the face? That’s whats going to happen. The Phillies are the Yankees-lite. They have good pitching, but Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are not C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. They have a good closer, but compare Brad Lidge to Mariano Rivera and you’re likely to get whacked by a guido in a Jeter jersey. They have a nice little lineup, but it pales in comparison to the Yanks absolutely deadly batting order.
So, why are the Mets fans going to sit here and rain on the Yankee parade and cheer for the team that they should hate most in the entire world? Did Jet fans root for the Patriots against the Giants in 2007? Nope. Would Giant fans want the Eagles to get a Super Bowl ring over the Jets? Absolutely not. That’s called having a common enemy.
So, Met fans, release the hate. Admit that your are just mad with your station in life as the Yankees adorable little brother that no one really cares about. If you can’t do that, don’t expect big brother to include you in the celebration after he wipes the floor with the bully that spend his days beating on you.
By Anthony De Franco October 13, 2009, at 8:00 pm Disclaimer: Before I even start this article, I’m writing this whole thing as a Yankee fan. I love the team, watch a ton of the games, and have seen every pitch of the playoffs. However, that doesn’t make any of the following any less true.
I lived in Arizona for a couple of years, and it’s really tough to watch an east coast baseball team while you live out there. The times are all screwed up, so I would be coming back from class at four o’clock and first pitch would be happening. Let alone the fact that the school didn’t get YES. Those bastards.
So, while I was out there, I adopted the Colorado Rockies. They are in the National League, they have no effect on the Yanks, and who doesn’t like a baseball team that routinely puts up football scores?
That brings me to the postseason. I watched every single pitch of both the Yanks and the Rox series’ and I figured something out that I never realized before.
I hate most Yankee Fans.
The main reason is the remarkable sense of self-entitlement that most Yankee fans have. I don’t know if it comes from living in the city that most call the “Center of the Universe” or if it comes from winning so often, but there is the feeling among most fans that if the Yankees lose in the playoffs, that they have somehow personally insulted their fans and everyone in the organization needs to be burned at the stake for their sins.
Meanwhile, Colorado and their fans are happy just to be there. When the Rockies were down to the Phillies, the fans at Coors Field cheered for every single batter that came to plate. They urged on their pitchers with every fiber of their being. They were real fans.
They even tried to keep Troy Tulowitzki from making out to end the game for a second straight day. How do you think most Yankees fans would react if the same guy was up in that position for a second straight and made out to end the series? If Tulo was a Yank, he would have been run out of town on a rail. Instead, he is still going to be celebrated as what he is: The heartbeat of a really good, young Rockies ballclub.
I’m just as arrogant as any person who lives in New York. However, I just can’t believe how little credit most Yankee fans give most of the league. It’s even evident in the way that the fans here talk. It’s not that the Angels consistently beat the Yankees, it’s that the Yanks just can’t beat the Angels. It’s like the opposing team has nothing to do with the loss. It has to be the fact that A-Rod is un-clutch or that Jorge Posada is a terrible catcher. It comes from the fact that Brian Cashman didn’t make the right trades. It’s not that the other team is good, it’s that the Yankees suck.
For the first time in my life, I can kind of understand why the rest of this country hates us. I’m just waiting for the Yanks to lose game one of the ALCS and for half of the Yankees fans to turn on their team.
Who would have thought that New York could learn something from a city like Denver?
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