-Randy Couture (17-10) vs. Mark Coleman (16-9)

The Fighters: The back-story of this fight has been beaten to death so I’ll give a quick version. These two were suppose to meet at UFC 17, sometime in the Middle Ages I think. Couture basically wrote the book on how to use dirty boxing and the Greco-Roman clinch in MMA and Coleman is the Godfather of modern day Ground-and-Pound. However, both are in their senior years and Don Fryes description of the fight as “grizzly bear sex” might not be that far off.

Breakdown: Can either of these fighters take the other one down? That might be the great question in this fight as neither of these fighters have had to fight on their back a ton during their career. Couture should have a significant advantage if the fight stays on it’s feet. His boxing has evolved a ton as we saw in the Tim Slyvia fight while Coleman still boxes like it’s 1996.

When this fight was booked I never really saw the appeal. I didn’t know beating Stephan Bonnar, on the under-card, got you into a main event these days. Let’s face the facts Coleman is a hall of famer and pioneer in the sport but he hasn’t had a significant win this decade. As for Couture he looked great in his heavyweight comeback against Slyvia and Gonzaga. And to this day he gave Lesnar the toughest run his for his money (besides obviously win.) But those fights were two years ago already. He looked a step slow against ‘Nog and lackluster against Vera. It’s impossible to count the man out but time seems to have caught up to Captain America.

I expect Couture to have his hand raised at the end of the fight. I’m just not sure what it proves. It’s 2010 not 1995.

Prediction: Couture TKO Round 2

-Nate Marquardt (29-8-2) vs. Chael Sonnen (23-10-1)

The Fighters: Marquardt is the best well rounded Middleweight this side of Anderson Silva. He is a solid wrestler, with good submission skills who strings together combos like MMA is a video-game. Since his loss to Anderson Silva over two years ago he’s improved leaps and bounds. He’s 8-2 in the UFC and is currently riding a three fight win streak.

Sonnen dropped from 205 to 185 and it totally rejuvenated his career. He’s won 4 of his last 5 fights with his only loss being to top contender Damien Maia. Sonnen is a wrestler who fights a lot like Randy Couture. He looks to close distance and bully you to the ground. If he has his way every fight would look like his fight against Yushin Okami.

Breakdown: In this fight Nate will have a significant advantage while standing and if Sonnen can’t get it to the ground quickly it’ll be lights out for him. Sonnen does a good job of implying his will agaisnt the cage but even if does get Marquardt down he still will find himself in trouble. Sonnen has been prone to being submitted in his career; Philo, Sobral, Horn just to name a few. Marquardt has been training and wrestling with G.S.P and something tells me that makes you 75% better by osmosis. Taking Nate down won’t be an easy task.

The winner of the fight gets Anderson Silva and Sonnen has been talking a lot of crap (half of which doesn’t make any sense.) If I were him I wouldn’t try hyping an Anderson Silva fight when Nate The Great is standing directly in his way.

Prediction: Marquardt K.O. Round 2

-Demian Maia (11-1) vs. Dan Miller (11-2)

The Fighters: Maia came into the UFC and proved that jiu-jitsu alone could still consistently win fights. An impressive task that we haven’t seen in the modern age of MMA. Maia submitted his first 5 UFC opponents before being crushed by Nate Marquardt.

New Jersey native and Ring Of Combat vet Dan Miller has also had an impressive UFC run. He’s 3-1 in the UFC and coming off his first UFC loss (to the aforementioned Sonnen.) Miller is an adequate striker but relies on a combination of wrestling and jiu-jitsu to smother his opponents.

Breakdown: Maia is a pretty terrible match-up for anyone in the middleweight division and Miller plays right into his strengths. Miller will have an advantage on the fight but he isn’t a prolific striker like Marquardt is. Miller can reverse wrestle to try to keep this standing but I can’t imagine it will for all three rounds. Maia is one of the few fighters who can pull guard effectively and has an unreal knack for making good jiu-jitsu guys look bad.

Prediction: Maia Arm-Bar Round 3

-Matt Serra (9-6) vs. Frank Trigg (19-7)

The Fighters: The charismatic Serra has done a very good job of keeping himself relevant. After all he’s 6-6 in the UFC yet still somehow remains incredibly popular. Serra’s frame, 5′6, isn’t the most conducive to welter-weight but the former light weight fighter simply can’t make 155 pounds anymore. Serra has great jiu-jitsu but he never seems to use it offensively in MMA. Believe it or not only 1 of his UFC wins was by submission. Serra’s wrestling is underrated as is his K.O power.

Frank Trigg rejuvenated himself at middleweight outside of the UFC. His return to the UFC hasn’t gone as planned. He was K.O’d by Josh Koscheck, who is basically a younger version of Trigg in his prime. Trigg looked more then a step slow in that fight.

Breakdown: Trigg will have a size and reach advantage but that might be where the list ends. While many think Trigg will be able to grind his way to a ground and pound win Serra surprised with his wrestling acumen in the Hughes fight. He even reversed the vaunted wrestler at one point. Trigg is not Matt Hughes. While standing Serra should have a significant advantage and has K.O power that Trigg doesn’t.

I love Trigg but this might be the end of the line for Twinkle-Toes.

Prediction: Serra K.O. Round 3

-Paulo Thiago (12-1) vs. Mike Swick (14-3)

The Fighters: Paulo Thiago is apparently the most bad-ass man in Brazil. And he definitely looks like a dude you wouldn’t want to cross. Thiago burst onto the scene with a quick K.O victory over Josh Koscheck. He’s 2-1 in the UFC, with the only loss being to Jon Fitch. Thiago has K.O power and great jiu-jitsu skills he has yet to display in the UFC.

Mike “Quick” Swick is a veteran of Season 1 of the Ultimate Fighter. Swick was in the process of cementing himself as a middleweight contender before running into Yushin Okami. In the Okami fight Swick was out-muscled and bullied around. The loss made him drop to 170 pounds where again he was on the verge of a title shot before losing to Dan Hardy. Swick is 9-2 in the UFC, 5-1 at Middleweight and 4-1 at Welterweight. Swick is known for his lighting fast and accurate hands, he truly earned his nickname quick. As his MMA game has evolved he’s become a very sound wrestler. Training with ‘Kos and Jon Fitch everyday probably had a lot to do with that.

Breakdown: Swick likes to flurry and throw punches in bunches. However in his last fight against Dan Hardy we didn’t see the same Mike Swick. He seemed a step slow and hesitant. Whether or not he was still feeling the effects of his concussion at the time remain to be seen. If Swick is hesitant he’s going be rocked by Thiago’s power punches.

Thiago will look to stand and trade with Swick as long as he feels comfortable. If he gets in trouble he will try to work his ground game and while he has a BJJ advantage getting Swick to the ground is easier said then done.

Of all the fights on the card this is the toughest to call.

Prediction: Thiago Via Unanimous Decision