Mac Danzig (18-7-1) vs. Justin Buchholz (8-4)

The Fighters: Danzig came into the sixth season of the Ultimate Fighter as a favorite. The King Of The Cage and Pride vet had amassed enough quality wins to justify his presence in the UFC even without TUF. His post TUF career hasn’t gone as planned however. He’s 2-3 in the UFC and has lost three fights in a row. No UFC fighter that isn’t a star isn’t going to survive a four fight losing streak.

Bucholz has also struggled in his UFC career. He’s 1-3 in the UFC with his lone win being over a very green Corey Hill.

Both fighters desperately need a win and this is most definitely a “loser leaves town” match.

Breakdown: Despite his recent failings, 2-5 in his last seven fights, Danzig is a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite depending on where you look. That says a lot more about his opponent then it does him. Bucholz clearly isn’t a guy ready for UFC competition. He brought a 7-1 record into the Octagon but it was clearly inflated by fighting local bums. Look for Danzig to mix it up both standing and on the ground as he cruises to an easy decision win.

Prediction: Danzig Via Unanimous Decision

Melvin Guillard (22-8-2) vs. Ronnys Torres (14-1)

The Fighters: Can you believe Melvin Guillard is still only 26 years old? It certainly seems like he’s been around forever. Most likely it feels this way because Guillards career has been a consistent stream of disappointments. Every time he takes a step forward he seems to take two back the next fight. The former Ultimate Fighter Season 2 contestant began his career at 170 pounds. He went 1-1 at welterweight before dropping down to lightweight. Since dropping to lightweight Guillard is 5-4 in the UFC.

Guillards talent is enormous. He’s a gigantic lightweight whose sheer athleticism and explosiveness will remind you a lot of Kevin Randleman. Guillard has a great shot and terrific power in his hands. However, Guillard has an Achilles Heel. He is a terrible submission fighter. All four of his UFC losses have come via submission. If you remember he was dominating, understatement, Josh Neer before being stupidly caught in a triangle choke. It looked like someone attacked Neers face with a tack hammer (as Guillard stupidly jumped into Neers guard to finish him off he was caught in a triangle.) Most recently he was caught in a guillotine against Nick Diaz that could have easily been avoided. If he fought with any kind of game plan he could have easily won both those fights.

It’s also outside the cage that Melvin has had troubles. After his loss to Joe Stevenson, Guillard accused Stevenson of using HGH. Not so ironically after that fight Guillard was caught with cocaine in his system in a post fight drug test. He was fined $2,100 and suspended 8 months.

The reason Guillard, unlike so many fighters, is getting second and third chances is because he’s insanely talented. He has wins over Marcus Davis, Denis Siver and Gleison Tibau. Those are very quality wins and it’s insanely frustrating to watch Guillard not maximize his god given ability.

While Ronnys Torres is making his UFC debut the talented Brazilian is no push over. Torres is 14-1 and one of Brazils top prospects. He trains with the highly regarded, and highly underrated, Nova União team. The dude trains with Jose Aldo, Paulo Thiago and many other talented fighters.

Breakdown: Sadly for Guillard this fight seems to be designed for him to lose. As I said his Achilles Heel has always been his submission defense and that is the area that Torres excels at (7 of Torres 15 wins have come via submission.) If there’s one area of concern for Torres it’s that he might not be coming into this fight 100%. He had to pull out of Fight Night 18 and 19 with various injuries.

If Guillard wants to win this fight he needs to take a page out of Chuck Liddells book and reverse wrestle. Torres isn’t good enough to take Mevlin down and it’s unclear if he has that same knack for pulling guard effectively like Damien Maia does. Knowing Melvin he’ll stun him with a power shot and go in recklessly for a finish and get submitted.

Prediction: Torres via Armbar Round 2

*Bonus* Random Fun Fact: Torres holds a win over Luiz Azeredo. Azeredo is one of only 4 men to ever beat Anderson Silva. Azeredo also holds a win over top welterweight contender Paul Daley.