WEC 46 Predictions!

January 10, 2010, at 4:57 am

Mackens Semerzier vs. Deividas Taurosevicius

I feel terrible for every single blogger that is live blogging this fight. The crazy names alone are enough to drive you mad.

Semerizer is a top prospect in the 145 lbs division. He is a former Marine that is 5-0 in his MMA career, four of those wins came by submission. Here’s the rub: his last submission win was in his WEC debut against top BJJ ace Wagney Fabiano. With a win like that in this tough division, he is looking at the fast track to the Faber-Brown-Aldo triumvirate.

His opponent is yet another alumni of our favorite regional MMA promotion, Ring of Combat. At least he would have been had he not been signed to the WEC just a few days before we were supposed to see him live. Taurosevicius is a top grappler who is 11-3 in his MMA career. The IFL veteran holds wins over Anthony Morrision and Dan Lauzon.

This should be an interesting match for anyone who loves the ground game, and I think I smell an upset.

Prediction: Taurosevicius via submission

Mike Brown v. Anthony Morrision

Brown is a member of the three man triangle at the top of the featherweight division in the WEC. His most recent fight was a dismantling at the hands of current champ Jose Aldo. Before that, he was the reigning champ who had defeated Urijah Faber twice, and destroyed Leonard Garcia. He is a huge 145er, and he possesses great all-around skills. If he has one hole in his game, it’s that he simply isn’t all that explosive. Aldo and Faber jump off the screen with their athleticism, Brown simply doesn’t. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t a great fighter. It just means that he is the likely odd man out at 145.

Morrision is another ROC veteran who is now a WECer. He’s making his WEC debut, and he’s doing it against one of the best in the world. If he plans to pull an upset, he’ll likely do it on his feet as seven of his 12 MMA wins have come via T/KO. If Brown is able to take him down, he is likely in trouble.

Brown gets a bounce back fight to pull up his stock.

Prediction: Brown via TKO

Dave Jansen v. Kamal Shalorus

Jensen is 14-0. That should be enough to get you excited, as we live in a world where upsets are the norm. If a guy has complied 14 straight wins, than he is doing something right. A wrestler out of, where else, Team Quest, Jensen had seven submission wins on his MMA record, and only two by knockout. He’s 1-0 in the WEC. In his debut, he defeated Richard Crunkilton via unanimous decision.

The problem with wrestling in MMA is that you may end up fighting a guy who just so much bigger and stronger than you that you can’t take him down. Enter Kamal Shalorus. The 32 year old is 6-0-1 in his MMA career, and if he wasn’t so old, we might be talking about him as a prospect. In his last fight and WEC debut against Will Kerr, he showed excellent well rounded skills, including sharp boxing and excellent wrestler. “The Prince of Persia” is just a HUGE welterweight. Seriously, he looks like he is scuplted out of stone.

There is a reason that Shalorus is a Jason Comack Man Crush. Expect Jensen to get his first loss.

Prediction: Shalorus via Unanimous Decision

Urijah Faber v. Raphael Assuncao

Faber is the WEC’s golden boy. How much so? He’s getting a ton of shit from MMA media because they feel that the WEC is promoting his return more so than they are a title fight. Guess what? They have to. Faber is one of the few breakout stars that the company has. He is a well-rounded fighter with excellent speed, off the charts cardio, and good power. He is a wrestler by training but also features good boxing and pretty decent submissions. How good is he? In his last fight, he challenged Mike Brown for his title. In the first round, he broke one of his hands. In the second, he severely sprained his other hands. For the next three round, he could throw nothing but elbows and open palm strikes. Yet, he still managed to almost choke out Brown in round five. That’s how great he is. He’s 22-3 in his MMA career. His losses, check this out, are to Brown twice, and UFC lightweight contender Tyson Griffin. Yea, he’s good.

There are a ton of people out there who assume that Assuncao is a sacrificial lamb for Faber. Well, in reality, he is probably the 4th best welterweight in the world. He’s 14-1 in his career, and his only loss was to Jeff Curran. He’s an ace on the ground, with eight wins coming by submission. His gameplan will likely try to be to get Faber down, but he must be prepared to threaten from the guard if he wants to win.

Prediction: Faber via Submission

Jamie Varner v. Ben Henderson

Varner is the WEC lightweight champion, but he hasn’t fought in a year. That’s right; a whole year. His last fight was against Donald Cerrone and Varner was in trouble when Cerrone hit him with an illegal knee. Since Varner couldn’t continue, the fight went to the cards and he retained his title via decision. He’s sat out since with various injuries.

Training at Arizona Combat Sports, Varner is a good all around fighter. On the feet, he’s a skilled boxer who has five knockouts in his career. On the ground, he’s a great submission wrestler. He’s got nine submission victories. Put it all together and it adds up to 16-2-2.

The WEC was banking on the Varner-Cerrone rematch to be a huge draw. The problem was that no one told Ben Henderson. When Henderson faced Donald Cerrone for the Interim title, no one gave “Smooth” much of a shot. So, all he did was execute a brilliant gameplan where he spent most of the fight in the posted mount position hammering away at Cerrone, while avoiding the BJJ specialist submissions. It was a brilliant performance that turned him into an overnight star. His humble persona won’t make anyone forget Brock Lesnar, but it also means that he won’t be satisfied with the interim title. He wants the real thing. An athletic wrestler, Henderson also possesses good standup. In addition to his wrestling, he has a purple belt in BJJ. He’s spent some time in Hilo, Hawaii working with some guy named B.J. Penn in preparation for the fight with Varner. Not sure you’ve heard of this Penn guy, but I here he isn’t bad.

While Cerrone and Varner were engaged in a year-long pissing contest, a new star was born in the WEC lightweight division.

Prediction: Henderson via Unanimous Decision