How High Is The Ceiling?: Junior Dos Santos

Junior Dos Santos looks like the perfect MMA prospect. He’s got everything you want to see in an elite fighter. However, he does have one major flaw that is just about out of his control.

Before we talk about the problem, let’s talk about the positives. First off, is there anyone in the world that can claim that they have a better camp for a heavyweight? Everyday, “Cigano” gets to spar with a heavyweight legend in Antonio “Rodrigo” Nogueira. Big Nog is always complemented not just as a legend in the sport, but for his individual skills in both boxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. That is what Junior gets to learn from every single day. Oh yeah, Nog is still at the top of his game, too. Not to mention the rest of the guys down their at Blackhouse like oh, I don’t know, Anderson Silva.

As for his current track record, it’s pretty much spotless. He’s 10-1 total, and his only loss came more than two years ago. It was a submission by armbar, which would raise questions about his ground game, unless of course he had a high level belt from an incredible teacher. Like, for example, a brown belt from Big Nog.

Let’s not worry too much about that loss. Instead, lets all take a look at his 4-0 UFC record. First, he comes in and upsets Fabricio Werdum by knocking him out in the first round. While Werdum has never been known for his chin, it was still an accomplishment for this guy no one had heard of to defeat a top ten fighter so quickly. Then, he gets fellow heavyweight prospect, Stefan Struve. While I continue to be a Struve adversary, he’s a pretty decent fighter. Well, he didn’t look so good next to “Cigano.” Junior dropped him in just 54 seconds. At this point, most knew that Dos Santos was in line for a bigger fight, but no one knew how big it would be.

Mirko Cro Cop may have been done as a fighter, and everyone might have known it, but a victory over him would still be a huge feather in the cap of a fighter that most had never heard of. Many assumed that Dos Santos would take the Croatian down and attempt to use his BJJ in an attempt to avoid a head kick of doom. Well, he avoided it just fine, but he did it by staying on his feet and outboxing the PRIDE legend. In round three, Mirko just gave up from being beaten so thoroughly.

Throw in one more win against Gilbert Yvel, who the UFC spent a ton of time hyping, but really isn’t anything all that special, and you have one hell of a record going forward.

So, what is holding this monster of a man back? He has the striking game to outshine anyone on the feet, and the ground game to, at the very least, get up if taken down. Who could stop him?

Well, here’s a better question: what do the names Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, and the new and improved Frank Mir have in common?

Dos Santos weighs in at about 240 pounds. As we’ve said millions of times before, the new Heavyweight is someone who cuts to 265 pounds, and walks into the cage around 280, at least. What will happen to Junior when someone who is 30-40 pounds heavier than him takes him down and lays on him? My expectations is that he will do nothing and lose his first UFC fight.

Can Junior do anything about this flaw? Here is the tragic part: not really. Unless he gets on the Frank Mir workout plan quick, he may be in a ton of trouble. Even if he does, I’m not sure that his body has the room to pack on another 20-25 pounds of muscle. Here’s hoping it does, because I really like Junior. I just am nervous about anyone who wants to be a high level heavyweight without weighing in at the limit.

Related posts:

1. UFC 108: Gonzaga v. Dos Santos Planned…
2. Is The “Whitemare” Following A Bad Blueprint?
3. Cro-Cop Not Done, To Take On Rothwell In Austraila?
4. WEC 47: Main Card Predictions
5. UFC 109 Undercard Predicitions!