January 5, 2010, at 2:57 am
Record: 17-14
BCS Record: 1-2
FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa v Georgia Tech
How good is Iowa? It was one of my favorite debates of the entire season. It was the biggest disagreement between College Football Tonight co-host Jesse Lauterbach and I in a few seasons. What made it such a good debate is that both sides made sense.
Iowa were the kings of the close victory. They beat Northern Iowa by a point to open up the year. They squeaked a three point win out of Arkansas State. Michigan had them on the ropes, only to loose by 2. Finally, the Hawkeyes needed a last second touchdown pass to escape Michigan State.
That’s four close calls against teams that aren’t exactly Alabama or Texas. Two ways to look at this.
1. Teams in the top five in the country should not be needing miracle after miracle to top foes like Michigan and Michigan State. Teams in the top five don’t have to hang on to beat Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. Like it or not, College Football is not only about wins and losses. It’s about who you beat, how you beat them, and when you beat them. Escaping mediocrity once is fine, twice (depending on the circumstances) is passable. But four times? Four times is a sign of a problem….
Or
2. There comes a point when luck isn’t a reasonable explanation. After one Houdini act, luck is a reasonable explanation. Two, it gets hairy, but depending on the circumstances, it is feasible. But to have the fortitude to come back and win like that on four separate occasions isn’t luck. It says something about your team to have that kind of come-back ability. There comes a point when credit has to be given to teams that routinely find ways to win. It’s the Bruce Springsteen theory. When it comes to luck, you make your own.
I fall on the side of argument number two. Teams don’t just get lucky four times. It doesn’t happen in sports.
I think all questions about Iowa went out the window in the second to last game against Ohio State. In what was the defacto Big 10 championship game, Iowa went on the road and took the Buckeyes to overtime without quarterback Rickey Stanzi and with a banged up Adam Robinson. Freshman James Vadenberg threw three picks in substitute duty for Iowa, but they were almost able to overcome it. Robinson gutted it out for 74 yards on 20 carries.
The performance showed something that a lot of us already knew. Iowa is a feisty, resilient football team. There a football team that doesn’t quit, even when they are at Ohio State with a freshman calling the shots. Those types of teams, teams that are mentally strong usually do well in bowl games. Especially big ones.
I think the Hawkeyes will do well offensively. Georgia Tech allowed 24 points a game and yielded nearly 120 more points then Iowa did. Ricky Stanzi is back and Adam Robinson is healthier than he was against Ohio State.
The challenge for Iowa is stopping a dynamic Georgia Tech offense. The Yellow Jackets run the triple option and are 11th in total offense in the FBS. Jonathan Dwyer ran for over 1000 yards and 14 touchdowns this year. He averaged over 6 yards per carry. Josh Nesbit ran for 18 touchdowns and threw for 10, eight of which went to Demaryius Thomas.
But Iowa’s defense is ranked 11th in the country as well. They allow less than 16 points a game. The strength of the defense is the line, excelling in run stopping. I think they’ll be able to at least control the triple option and win the game.
The Pick: Iowa
Related posts:
Tags: 
Leave a reply