Bowl Mania Day 3

December 22, 2009, at 3:07 am

Record: 2-1

MAACO Bowl- Las Vegas- #14 BYU v. #18 Oregon State- Finally we get to see some top 25 teams! I have to say, for a pre-Christmas Tuesday night, this one is a treat. The people at MAACO got really lucky. These are two interesting teams with some impressive 2009 moments on the resume.

You never want to get too excited about a loss, especially if it’s in what amounts to a conference championship game, but you had to be impressed with the way Oregon State played at Oregon in the final game of the year. Earlier that week I had Paul Buker from The Oregonian on my show. Buker told me that the question among Oregon fans was not whether or not the Ducks would win the game, but how many points they would put up in the process. Thoughts of a 60 spot were floating around the pacific north west.

Fast forward a day and about 9 hours after that conversation and Oregon State is staring at a 33-28 lead with two minutes to go in the third quarter. On the road. In one of the most hostel environments you’ll find in college football.

Oregon State lost the game and a date with Ohio State on New Year’s because they couldn’t stop the run and they collapsed on two fourth down opportunities late in the fourth quarter. I had issues with the play calling in the game from an Oregon State perspective, but was none the less impressed with how they played in the first 45 minutes of the game.

To win tonight, the Beavers will have to do two things- get Jacquizz Rodgers going and stop Harvey Unga. First, Rodgers. He stands 5-7, weighs under 200 pounds, and is as explosive as any running back in the Pac-10 this side of Toby Gerhart. He ran for over 1300 yards and 20 touchdowns. He crossed the 100 mark in seven games this year. And cross the 100 mark doesn’t necessarily mean the 103 he racked up against Portland State. How about the 189 he had against Stanford? Or the 159 he had against Washington? Or 113 against USC?

The issue with Rodgers has been under use. In all of Oregon State’s losses, they’ve ran the ball with Jaquizz 20 times or less. They are going against a team that has been streaky stopping the run. BYU has allowed over 100 yards four times this year. One of those times came to TCU, one of the best teams in the country. Another came against Air Force, a team that runs the ball almost exclusively. I can see Jacquizz Rodgers putting up numbers more then good enough to win, but it’s important that Oregon State feed him the ball a lot.

Stopping the run will be an even bigger key for Oregon State. They couldn’t do it against Oregon, allowing 288 yards, including 166 to LaMichael James. They couldn’t do it four other times this season. But they did have success against Cal, a team that reportedly has a good rushing attack (though inexplicably refused to use it at points).

BYU running back Harvey Unga ran for over 1000 yards and ten touchdowns. He puts those numbers up in big games, too. Unga ran for over 100 against TCU and Utah- the two biggest games of the year. Stop him and Oregon State’s in good shape.

If I’m the Beavers, I make Max Hall beat me. Sure, he had 30 touchdowns. But he also had 14 interceptions. I’m more concerned about what Unga can do to me, then what Hall can do with a neutralized Unga. The BYU receivers aren’t great. The tight end, Dennis Pitta, leads the team in catches.

However, you have to give BYU this: the stigma that they aren’t good in big games has, at the very least decreased. They beat Oklahoma in Dallas to open up the year (so what if Bradford left the game?) and they topped Utah in overtime to end the season. TCU destroyed them, but I don’t know if TCU isn’t the 3rd best team in the country.

The loss that concerns me is the 54-28 shellacking at home to Florida State. That game was a complete breakdown. Maybe it doesn’t mean anything. Maybe it was just one of those nights. But that game has haunted me whenever I’ve spoken or written about BYU since. Not a lot of teams get beat that bad at home by a mediocre foe.

I just can’t pick BYU on a neutral field to win this game. They’ll have trouble stopping Jaquizz Rodgers and fall in a high scoring affair.

The Pick: Oregon State