Record: 9-6

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl- Houston v Air Force

Houston was everyone’s favorite darling this year. An early upset of Oklahoma State, a dynamic passing offense and a quarterback that flirted with Colt Brennon like numbers made these Conference USA runners up one of the most exciting teams to watch. Quarterback Case Keenum led the nation in every major passing category. He racked up 430 yards of total offense (a game, by the way, a game), 419 yards passing, and 43 touchdown passes. Keep in mind that those first two numbers are averages.

Averages.

Keenum also threw five touchdown passes in four different games. He was also picked off nine times. For a guy that throws the ball as many times as he does, only nine interceptions is an incredible number.

But Houston may have found it’s match. Air Force ranks number one is pass defense. Teams are throwing for under 150 yards a game on the Falcons. Houston won last year’s edition of this match-up in the very same bowl, but Air Force’s pass defense was nowhere near where it is this season.

If there was ever a case study for defense vs offense, it’s this game. As the bowl season rolls on and this experiment finds itself in year number two, I’ve put together a few guidelines or patterns for picking these games. I don’t care how good an offense is. I cannot bring myself to type that a team that allows 15 points a game and yielded less then two hundred points this entire year is going to loose on a neutral field.

The Pick: Air Force

Brut Sun Bowl- Oklahoma v #21 Stanford

I don’t know if the Brut Sun Bowl can be worse then last year’s Oregon State/Pitt match up. A 3-0 game that lasted forever. It wasn’t even a good, tactical defensive game. It was a sloppy, pull your eyebrows out game. I know because I saw every snap.

Luckily, the good people at Brut shouldn’t have the same problem this year. Not only do they have one of college football’s most storied programs, but they have one of college football’s most exciting players on display.

The program, of course, is Oklahoma. The player is Stanford’s Toby Gerhart. The Heisman Trophy runner-up, Gerhart ran for over 1700 yards and 26 touchdowns. Quarterback Andrew Luck isn’t too bad either. Luck threw for over 2500 yards and 13 touchdown passes.

Stanford had some really impressive wins. They put 50-spot’s up in consecutive weeks against number 8 Oregon and at number 9 USC. They also had there way with my team, Notre Dame, but then again who didn’t?

While not as good as Air Force, Oklahoma also has a dominant defense. They’re also hot. The Sooners are coming off a shut out win over then number 11 Oklahoma State in the final game of the year. They rank seventh in total defense, allowing 273 yards a game.

Intangibles are another thing that I’ve learned cannot be underrated in these games. Oklahoma has played in a ton of big bowl games in the past few years, including the national championship last season. Will they be able to get up for the New Year’s Eve afternoon Brut Sun Bowl after expecting to return to the BCS this year? I think so because it was clear early on that the BCS was out of the question without Sam Bradford in a rough Big 12. Often times you’ll see teams who narrowly miss the BCS not get up for a “consolation bowl game” (looking at you, Oregon State). The Sooners lost four times.

Also, even though they haven’t been as successful in big time bowls as they may have liked, they do have experience. Stanford does not, having not been to a bowl in almost a decade. I like the fact that a lot of the Sooner players were playing for a national title just one year ago. While Stanford may “out-pump” itself for a bowl, any bowl, Oklahoma handling the Sun Bowl almost seams like a regular season game. This, coupled with a good defense, will be good enough to win.

The Pick: Oklahoma

Texas Bowl- Navy v. Missouri

I looked at this game and wanted to know one thing. Does Missouri stop the run? The answer was complicated. Against teams like Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, the run defense was remarkable. But against ranked teams and teams that ran the ball well (like Nevada), they allowed well over 100 yards a game. They allowed over 200 against Nevada. However, despite the poor performance against the run in the Nevada game, Missouri still won. I think the Tigers can control Navy enough to win.

The Pick: Navy

Insight Bowl- Minnesota v Iowa State

Identical overall and conference records for these two teams. It’s actually a heck of a statistically match up, but Iowa State’s defense is a little banged up and they were killed by the two team’s only common opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Despite being shut out, Minnesota only let up 12 points to the Hawkeyes. This one’s on the NFL network. I wouldn’t worry about it.

The Pick: Minnesota

Chick-fill-a Bowl- Tennessee v #11 Virginia Tech

I talked about it all year, if Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw the ball, Va Tech will win games. Don’t be surprised if this one is close because Tennessee has played almost everyone tough this year, but assuming Taylor putting the ball in the air a lot is not on the menu, Virginia Tech will win.

The Pick: Virginia Tech