Question: How does a three team trade involving two 0f the top ten pitchers in baseball get even more complicated?

Answer: Billy Beane sticks his nose into it.

This trade is a lot to digest.

PHILLIES GET

RHP Roy Halladay (from Toronto)

RHP Phillippe Aumont (from Seattle)
OF Tyson Gillies (from Seattle)
RHP Juan Ramirez (from Seattle)
$6 million cash (from Toronto)

MARINERS GET

LHP Cliff Lee (from Philadelphia)

BLUE JAYS GET

*C Travis d’Arnaud (from Philadelphia)
*RHP Kyle Drabek (from Philadelphia)
*1B/3B Brett Wallace (from Oakland)

A’S GET

*OF Michael Taylor (from Philadelphia via Toronto)

Now let’s break down this complicated trade.

The headline is the Phillies going from Lee to Halladay.  Is that an upgrade?  Yes, but not as big of one as you think.  Lee was lights out last year and Halladay has shown subtle signs of decline and at best your adding one win.  This trade had more to do with finances then it does baseball.  Halladay was willing to take a “hometown discount” to play for the Phillies, Lee was not.  Halladay’s extension is below market value, not in terms of per year, but in terms of length.  Halladay will sign a 3 year 60 million extension that could total $80 million if a 2014 option vests.  Considering John Lackey just signed a 5 year $85 million dollar deal 4 years and $75.75  (or 5 and $95.75 million) seems reasonable for Halladay.

In essence the Phillies are taking a bit of a risk here.  They tried to extend Lee and it went no where.   Lee is seeking Santana/Sabathia money and while that might be a little unrealistic he’s definitely worth more then John Lackey.  Again this trade comes down to the length of the contract.  The Jays would rather control Halladay for 4 or 5 years then Lee for 6 or 7.  Considering that one injury can dramatically alter a pitchers career it’s hard not to agree with that logic.

How you evaluate this deal for Philly really comes down to your opinions of the prospects they got versus what they gave up.

The Phillies had to part with three of their top prospects to get this done.

• Michael Taylor, 24, is a little older then most prospects but he’s also much more polished.  Taylor killed AA pitching this year and quickly moved on to AAA.  At best he’s an everyday right fielder with some pop and solid base running skills.  However, his path to the majors was blocked in Philly with Ibanez, Victorino and Werth manning the outfield.  By the time a spot opened up Taylor would be close to 26 and wouldn’t be much of a prospect anymore.  With OF prospect Dominic Brown also nipping at his heels Taylor was clearly expendable.
• Travis D’Arnaud, 20, is a defensive minded catching prospect.  He’s very solid defensively and has good plate discipline.  D’Arnaud struggled after moving up from low A to A and needs to develop power to be considered an elite prospect.  Without power D’Arnaud isn’t anything special.
• I’ve already written about Kyle Drabek at length.  He’s the key piece the Jays are getting back but I think there’s much hype about Drabek then there is substance.

The Phillies are also getting prospects back to help replenish their farm system.

• Phillipe Aumont, 20, has the potential to develop into a front line pitcher.  His numbers at high A were very solid (3.24 ERA, 9.45 K/9.)   Aumont moved to AA where at first glance stats would indicate he struggled,  he went 1-4 with a 5.02 in 17.2 innings.  However, his K/9 rose to 12.23 and his FIP was 3.60 indicating he dealt with a great deal of bad luck.  An absurd .436 BABIP is the most likely culprit of his inflated ERA.  Seattle had been exclusively using him in the bullpen and it remains to be seen how Philly develops him.
• Juan Ramirez, 21, is a hard throwing pitcher whose beauty may be in the eye of the beholder.  Ramirez is almost all projection at this point as his raw stuff is a lot better then his numbers.  At worst he’ll be a power reliever.
• Tyson Gillies, 21, exploded at high A last year batting .341/.430/.486.  Of course that average may been unsustainable as he boasted a .395 BABIP.

Obviously the Phillies gave up a ton but they got back very solid prospects, as well as $6 million dollars.

For the Mariners it’s much more simple to evaluate.  They got Lee for Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies and that my friends is highway robbery.  At best Lee leads Seattle to a division crowd, enjoys playing in a pitchers park – with a great defense behind him – and signs a long term deal.  At worst Lee plays for one year, the M’s miss the playoffs and they get two first round picks as compensation when he leaves.  Hard to find a downside to this deal for Seattle.

For Toronto they shed Roy’s $16 million dollar salary (although they only save $10 million dollars) and begin to rebuild.  They get D’Arnaud, Drabek and Brett Wallace (from Oakland.) Wallace was the centerpiece of the Matt Holliday trade but Oakland soon learned that he can’t play third base and that kills his value.  Toronto hopes he’ll replace Lyle Overbay as early as 2011.

It’s a tough pill to swallow if your a Blue Jay fan.  After all the Hallday hype all they could get for him was D’Arnaud, Drabek and Wallace.  That has to be disappointing.

Of course we can’t forget the Athletics stuck their nose into this deal.  Classic Billy Beane…”Wait there’s a trade going on!  Why am I not involved!”  He trades Carter for Taylor the rare prospect for prospect swap.  Obviously Beane feels Wallce ceiling is lower as he’s a 1B/DH type, while Taylor could probably play right field for the A’s tomorrow.

So to recap:

A+ for Seattle, B+ for Toronto, B for Oakland, C- for Toronto.  I just don’t think they got back any 5 star “can’t miss” type prospects.  Remember when they were asking for Hughes or Chamberlain and Montero?  What they got is a long, long way from that.