Stefan Struve v. Paul Buentello

When did Stefan Struve become a prospect? There is a reason that the UFC kept him around. He possesses one unique attribute that no one else can match: He’s 6′11. His absurdly long limbs provide a big advantage in his ground game. In his last fight, which I picked him to lose via murder, he showed good improvement in his standup that took him from heavyweight afterthought to legit prospect. He is taking the place of fellow prospect Todd Duffee, who had to back out of the fight because of injury.

Bunetello is making his UFC debut after coming over from Affliction when that organization folded. He’s 24-10 in his career with wins over pretty much no one. It seems that much like Roy Nelson, he seems to have a record that is padded against cans, and every time he fights anyone of note, he looses. Unlike Nelson, he isn’t nearly a complete fighter. He has fast hands, but absolutely no ground game. He will need to keep this fight standing to have a chance.

Take the more complete fighter.

Prediction: Struve via submission

Kenny Florian v. Clay Guida

Florian is coming off his championship shot when B.J. Penn absolutely dominated him completely. For all the crap that people give Florian about being the bridesmaid rather than the bride, he is still a very good lightweight. Not only does he have great muay thai with elbows that can cut through steel, but he actually changed his coach from Mark Dellagrotte to GSP’s head trainer Firas Zhabi in an attempt to improve that aspect of his game. He’s got great BJJ as well. The only area where he struggles is with his takedown defense (segue alert…)

Which is a huge problem because wrestling is what Clay Guida does. Guida has become a fan favorite for his rock star/caveman look, his incredible toughness and his propensity for being in great “action” fights. In his last fight, which was a loss to Diego Sanchez, he took huge shots in the first round, including a head kick that would have killed most men. With all of that, he still took Sanchez down and forced a decision by toughing out a fight that should have been stopped in the first round.

Since then, he has joined Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico. What he has improved on is anyone’s guess, but if he improved his boxing, which I’m willing to guess he has, then he could be a dangerous fighter.

I love both these guys and think it will be a great fight, but I like Guida’s wrestling in this one.

Prediction: Guida via unanimous decision

Jon Fitch v. Mike Pierce

Oh…Poor Jon Fitch. He lives in such a cruel world. In any other time, he would be the UFC welterweight champion. Instead, he toils away in relative anonymity, being the second best welterweight behind the incomparable Georges St. Pierre. He’s got great standup, incredible wrestling and is a black belt in guerilla jiu-jitsu, which is a combination of judo and BJJ.

Pierce is filling in for the injured Thiago Alves, who was filling in for the injured Ricardo Almeida. In Pierce’s first fight, he defeated underrated Minnesota Martial Arts veteran Brock Larson. He is a collegiate wrestler, and trains with fellow UFC newcomer Ricky Story.

Here’s the brutal truth: Fitch is just too good to let himself get beat by the youngster.

Prediction: Fitch via submission

Frank Mir v. Cheick Kongo

Mir is coming off a loss on the biggest MMA card of all time, getting trounced by Brock Lesnar at UFC 100. Since that beating, Mir has added a ton of muscle to his frame in preparation of fighting the champ again at some point. He has improved his striking over the years, and even is saying that he has better boxing than Kongo. His base is still his BJJ, which is arguably the best of the heavyweights.

Kongo is also coming off a loss, having been beaten by top prospect Cain Velasquez. In the fight, Kongo rocked Cain several times, but each time Cain was able to dump Kongo and rain down ground and pound on his way to a decision victory. Kongo is a world class striker, but lacks any kind take down defense. Really, any kind of take down defense.

Look for Mir to shoot the take down and then pass Kongo’s guard and submit.

Prediction: Mir via submission

B.J. Penn v. Diego Sanchez

Penn is “The Prodigy” for a reason. He has some of the best boxing in the UFC, heavy hands that can knock out anyone at 155, and the type of BJJ that is a weapon, no matter where the fight goes. If Sanchez is in B.J.’s guard, here comes the armbars and triangles. If B.J. is on top, then it could be ground and pound, or just about kind of choke in the book. The only hole in his game was his poor cardio, but he seems to have cleared that problem up by moving his camp to southern California and hiring Marv Marinovich as his new trainer.

Penn is an amazing fighter, who’s only loss since moving down to 155 is in a fight where he moved BACK to 170, and he lost to GSP, not just any welterweight.

The latest threat to his title is the winner of TUF 1’s middleweight division Diego Sanchez. Sanchez is a submission wrestler at heart, but that isn’t what makes him so awesome. His two best attribute are his hyper-aggressive style and his absurd motor.

Sanchez doesn’t just take control of the octagon at the beginning of the fight, he literally runs to the middle of it. He puts pressure on his opponent from bell to bell, looking to finish fights before they ever get started. If they do go longer, Sanchez is just fine with that because his cardio is just insane. He never stops, and I’m pretty sure the fight could go twenty rounds and Sanchez would be fine with it.

The problem is that I can’t figure out a single way for Sanchez to win this fight. Penn has the advantage on the feet, and on the ground. The only way I can see Sanchez winning is by a decision, but I don’t even know how he would win the rounds. Maybe by a flash knockout, but Penn doesn’t feel pain unless he’s hit by GSP.

Prediction: Penn via unanimous decision