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By Anthony De Franco  December 31, 2009, at 3:09 pm  So. Tired. Up til 9am watching Dynamite 2009. Fuck Shinya Aoki’s stupid pants.
As i try and form coherent sentences right now, We’d like to take a moment to wish you and yours a Happy and Healthy New Year. Take this time to realize how good you have it, and to plot world domination in the coming year. That’s what we’re doing.
So, from Jason, Alex, Zach, Bryan, Matt, Jordan and of course myself, Have a happy New Year. We may be signing off for 2009, but we’ll be back tomorrow with more Bowl predictions, UFC predictions, and we’ll all get to see if Alex drinks himself retarded tonight.
By Jordan Lauterbach December 31, 2009, at 4:26 am Record: 9-6
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl- Houston v Air Force
Houston was everyone’s favorite darling this year. An early upset of Oklahoma State, a dynamic passing offense and a quarterback that flirted with Colt Brennon like numbers made these Conference USA runners up one of the most exciting teams to watch. Quarterback Case Keenum led the nation in every major passing category. He racked up 430 yards of total offense (a game, by the way, a game), 419 yards passing, and 43 touchdown passes. Keep in mind that those first two numbers are averages.
Averages.
Keenum also threw five touchdown passes in four different games. He was also picked off nine times. For a guy that throws the ball as many times as he does, only nine interceptions is an incredible number.
But Houston may have found it’s match. Air Force ranks number one is pass defense. Teams are throwing for under 150 yards a game on the Falcons. Houston won last year’s edition of this match-up in the very same bowl, but Air Force’s pass defense was nowhere near where it is this season.
If there was ever a case study for defense vs offense, it’s this game. As the bowl season rolls on and this experiment finds itself in year number two, I’ve put together a few guidelines or patterns for picking these games. I don’t care how good an offense is. I cannot bring myself to type that a team that allows 15 points a game and yielded less then two hundred points this entire year is going to loose on a neutral field.
The Pick: Air Force
Brut Sun Bowl- Oklahoma v #21 Stanford
I don’t know if the Brut Sun Bowl can be worse then last year’s Oregon State/Pitt match up. A 3-0 game that lasted forever. It wasn’t even a good, tactical defensive game. It was a sloppy, pull your eyebrows out game. I know because I saw every snap.
Luckily, the good people at Brut shouldn’t have the same problem this year. Not only do they have one of college football’s most storied programs, but they have one of college football’s most exciting players on display.
The program, of course, is Oklahoma. The player is Stanford’s Toby Gerhart. The Heisman Trophy runner-up, Gerhart ran for over 1700 yards and 26 touchdowns. Quarterback Andrew Luck isn’t too bad either. Luck threw for over 2500 yards and 13 touchdown passes.
Stanford had some really impressive wins. They put 50-spot’s up in consecutive weeks against number 8 Oregon and at number 9 USC. They also had there way with my team, Notre Dame, but then again who didn’t?
While not as good as Air Force, Oklahoma also has a dominant defense. They’re also hot. The Sooners are coming off a shut out win over then number 11 Oklahoma State in the final game of the year. They rank seventh in total defense, allowing 273 yards a game.
Intangibles are another thing that I’ve learned cannot be underrated in these games. Oklahoma has played in a ton of big bowl games in the past few years, including the national championship last season. Will they be able to get up for the New Year’s Eve afternoon Brut Sun Bowl after expecting to return to the BCS this year? I think so because it was clear early on that the BCS was out of the question without Sam Bradford in a rough Big 12. Often times you’ll see teams who narrowly miss the BCS not get up for a “consolation bowl game” (looking at you, Oregon State). The Sooners lost four times.
Also, even though they haven’t been as successful in big time bowls as they may have liked, they do have experience. Stanford does not, having not been to a bowl in almost a decade. I like the fact that a lot of the Sooner players were playing for a national title just one year ago. While Stanford may “out-pump” itself for a bowl, any bowl, Oklahoma handling the Sun Bowl almost seams like a regular season game. This, coupled with a good defense, will be good enough to win.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Bowl- Navy v. Missouri
I looked at this game and wanted to know one thing. Does Missouri stop the run? The answer was complicated. Against teams like Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, the run defense was remarkable. But against ranked teams and teams that ran the ball well (like Nevada), they allowed well over 100 yards a game. They allowed over 200 against Nevada. However, despite the poor performance against the run in the Nevada game, Missouri still won. I think the Tigers can control Navy enough to win.
The Pick: Navy
Insight Bowl- Minnesota v Iowa State
Identical overall and conference records for these two teams. It’s actually a heck of a statistically match up, but Iowa State’s defense is a little banged up and they were killed by the two team’s only common opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Despite being shut out, Minnesota only let up 12 points to the Hawkeyes. This one’s on the NFL network. I wouldn’t worry about it.
The Pick: Minnesota
Chick-fill-a Bowl- Tennessee v #11 Virginia Tech
I talked about it all year, if Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw the ball, Va Tech will win games. Don’t be surprised if this one is close because Tennessee has played almost everyone tough this year, but assuming Taylor putting the ball in the air a lot is not on the menu, Virginia Tech will win.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
By Zach Schiff December 31, 2009, at 1:29 am Yes, the Rangers got crushed today.
It was a 6-0 loss; first time they were shutout this season; Sean Avery was the only one who really showed up; a division rival got 2 points on home ice; Chad Johnson let up his first goal on his first shot ever.
But it’s funny how quickly people turn on the team. They go 4-0 and all of a sudden Marian Gaborik is the greatest player in the world, Henrik Lundqvist is the best goalie in the NHL, and this team is on the right track.
Then, they get shutout at home, and we need to fire John Tortorella, trade Brandon Dubinsky, and go with a youth movement.
Aren’t teams allowed to win and lose games?
Yes, no one played particularly well. Chad Johnson – he who wasn’t scheduled to start and was thrown in during an intermission – played decent. Avery played very well tonight. Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan played well, but as always, couldn’t find the back of the net.
This is a team where 34% of the Salary Cap is occupied by 3 players who shouldn’t be making a total of $3.4M. What did you expect?
A team with Michal Rozsival, Wade Redden, and Chris Drury will NEVER win a Stanley Cup, unless they are all making under $1M per year and the rest of the roster is filled with named like Kovalchuk, Gaborik, Lundqvist, Boyle, Heatley, and Niedermeyer.
This Rangers team isn’t built for a Cup run. Yes, they have a few parts (Gaborik, Hank, Ryan Callahan, and 3 of 6 defensemen), but they’ll get shutout 6-0 from time to time. Sometimes, they’ll score 7 goals. Some games, they’ll put up a fight in a 2-1 loss.
Get used to it.
But don’t expect too much.
And don’t complain when they don’t show up for a game. After all, what did you expect out of Redden when he was signed? Passion? Commitment? Offensive skill?
By Anthony De Franco December 30, 2009, at 3:04 pm Rafello Oliveira v. John Gunderson
Hey, look! A fight which had to be changed due to injury! Let’s keep count. Here’s one.
Oliveira was supposed to take on Sean Sherk, but when Tyson Griffin was injured, Sherk moved up to the main card to take on Dan Miller. Then, Sherk got hurt anyway, so it never really matter. The Brazilian is 9-2 in his MMA career, and 0-1 in the UFC. He loss to Nik Lentz at UFC 103 in a unanimous decision. He’s a BJJ guy, but does have three knockout wins to his record.
Gunderson is making his UFC debut, but is an IFL veteran. He’s trained Ken Shamrock’s camp, the Lion’s Den, which is interesting because we’ve all seen how terrible Shamrock is as a coach from season three of The Ultimate Fighter. Now, he works with Xtreme Couture, which is a huge upgrade. He’s got 11 submission wins to his record, and a total record of 25-7.
UFC debut and a late replacement? I’ll take the other guy.
Prediction: Oilveira via submission
Mike Pyle v. Jake Ellenberger
Pyle is 1-1 in the UFC. He lost to Brock Larsen at UFC 98, in a fight that had me anointing Larsen as an underrated fighter. He then beat Chris Wilson via guillotine choke at Fight Night 19. An Xtreme Couture product, He’s a Muay Thai and BJJ fighter who needs another win to cement himself in the welterweight division.
Ellenberger was brought in as a late replacement to fight Carlos Condit at Fight Night 19. He took Condit, who is one of my favorites, to a decision, and there are those that suggested that he might have even won the fight. He was certainly more impressive than I thought he would be. He’s also an IFL veteran, and has 25 MMA wins to his credit. He’s primarily a wrestler out of team quest, but showed good power in rocking Condit early.
Prediction: Ellenberger via Unanimous Decision
Ryan Jensen v. Mark Munoz
Jensen is 1-3 in his UFC career, losing to Wilson Geouveia at UFC Fight Night 18, and defeating Steve Steinbess at Fight Night 19. Before that, he lost to both Thales Leites and Demian Maia in a previous UFC stint. He’s got nine submission victories to his credit, but none of them really stick out. He does have is big fight experience, fighting in both the UFC and Strikeforce.
Munoz was one of the prized holdovers from the pre-Zuffa WEC, but hasn’t really proven much since coming over. He lost to Matt Hamill in highlight fashion when the deaf wrestler threw a sloppy head kick that tagged Munoz. He then won a split decision over website favorite Nick Catone at UFC 102 that led to Catone being cut. Primarily a wrestler, Munoz does have excellent power that has led to three of his six wins coming by knockout.
Prediction: Munoz via unanimous decision
Cole Miller v. Dan Lauzon
Miller is a long, lanky BJJ ace out of American Top Team. Since appearing on season five of The Ultimate Fighter, he’s 4-2 in the UFC. His wins are all over guys no longer with the company, and his losses are to Jeremy Stephens and TUF 8 winner Efrain Escudero. He’s 19-4 overall, and ten of his wins are by submission.
Dan Lauzon is the first of the two fighting Lauzon brothers going on this card. His brother Joe is taking on Sam Stout on the main card. Dan is making his UFC Re-entry, as his only fight on the big stage was a loss against Spencer Fisher at UFC 64. After losing to Deividas Taurosevicus in his next fight, he’s won eight in a row and earned a chance at the big boys once again. He’s 12-2 total, with half of his wins coming by knockout, and the other half coming by submission.
Prediction: Lauzon via TKO
Martin Kampmann v. Jacob Volkmann
Another injury replacement. That’s two.
Kampmann has really fallen off, huh? At UFC 103, he was supposed to take on Mike Swick for a title shot. Swick got hurt, Paul Daley stepped in and “Semtex” exploded all over Kampmann, TKOing him in round one. Now, he’s been sent to the undercard. If you look at his last two fights, you can make the case that he lost to Carlos Condit, a fight he won by split decision, as well. I’m of the school of thought that he is a little overrated, despite being 7-2 in the UFC.
As for Volkmann, he is an intriguing prospect out of Minnesota Martial Arts. He’s 0-1 in the UFC, losing to Paulo Thiago at UFC 106. The wrestler was undefeated previously, including a win over Kevin Knabijan at Bellator 7. Plus, his nickname is Christmas.
I’m not sure I really get the matchmaking here. Why must Jacob Volkmann die? We couldn’t find another replacement for Kampmann? Don’t get me wrong, I think Volkmann can win, but I wouldn’t taken the chance If I was the UFC.
Prediction: Volkmann via unanimous decision
By Anthony De Franco December 30, 2009, at 5:47 am The internet has been abuzz the last few days with the news that Josh Koscheck has pulled out of UFC 109 with an injury and his American Kickboxing Academy teammate Mike Swick will be taking his place fighting Paulo Thiago. I figure I’d chime in.
American Kickboxing Academy is quickly making Paulo Thiago the Sisyphus of mixed martial arts. Instead of pushing a boulder uphill, he’s tasked with running through the San Jose, Calif. team’s roster of welterweights.
Even after Josh Koscheck on Monday pulled out of their scheduled rematch at UFC 109, Thiago will still face an AKA fighter on Super Bowl weekend. Within hours of Koscheck’s withdrawal, MMAFighting.com reported and MMAWeekly.com independently confirmed, teammate Mike Swick would step in to face the Brazilian.
This fight was supposed to be the follow up to the biggest upset of 2008, as Thiago knocked out the heavily favored Koscheck at UFC 95. It’s actually a little bit ironic that Josh has to pull out of this fight, as he has been the guy that the UFC has been going to when someone gets hurt. He has fought seven times in the last two years, including jumping into the UFC 106 despite fighting at UFC 103 just about 60 days earlier.
I have a quirky theory about the UFC’s plan for Koscheck. He is the most likely to receive a rematch against welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. While Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves are coming off relatively recent losses, Koscheck has had two years to recover from his loss. In that time, he has gone 5-2, which is not spectacular. His losses have come to Thiago Alves, who was smashed by GSP, and Paulo Thiago, who he was slated for a shot at revenge against. Let’s assume for a second that Kos would have defeated Thiago, probably in violent fashion. The UFC could have set up some form of a number one contender fight for Josh and if he won, threw him into a late in the the year rematch with the Canadian wonder.
Instead, we get Swick against Thiago. Swick is coming off a loss in a number one contender fight against Dan Hardy. Hardy tagged Swick early and never seemed to get on track, eventually losing a decision. There are those who suggest that this is a terrible fight for him, because if he looses to another guy that most pundits don’t believe is a top-ten level guy, he could be in danger of fighting on undercards.
First of all, I don’t see Swick on undercards anytime soon. He’s too good and too big a name for that. Second, I think that Swick is looking at this one as a chance to get the taste of Dan Hardy out of his mouth quickly. Third, if Thiago beats Swick, is he a top-ten welterweight? Obviously. So, Swick is fighting a guy just out of the top 10.
The problem with that top ten is that it includes Swick, Koscheck, and fellow AKA’er Jon Fitch. With three of those guys in the top-10, it would only be logical that they would fight at some point. Well, they won’t fight one another. Since they train in the same gym, it would be tough for them to prepare. Would one have to leave the gym? Would they have to split the gym with a white line like that episode of the Brady Bunch?
Notice I didn’t even mention the “Who would want to fight their friend?” idea? That’s because I don’t think that these guys think like that. Are they friends? Absolutely. However, they know that it’s just business. The problems are more logistical than anything else.
It doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense. The only problem for these three guys is that there is a cost for not fighting one another. They are forced to take on guys like Thiago and Hardy who aren’t names. What happens to you when you lose to guys who aren’t names? You wind up falling very far, sometimes even off the rankings.
How will these whole thing go down? Swick should beat Thiago, and Kos should comeback and get his win. He’ll probably have to fight Thiago again. When he beats him, we’ll start hearing calls for Koscheck-GSP II.
But if none of that happens, we could be looking at the end of the AKA welterweight dynasty.
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