November 30, 2009, at 7:53 pm
Imagine a “Doomsday Summer Of 2010″ scenario Knicks fans. LeBron resigns with Cleveland, Brandon Jennings has become a megastar, the cap comes in at the lowest expected number, and Eddy Curry/Jared Jeffries are both still wearing orange and blue. All hope is lost and Donnie Walsh is a failure….right?
Wrong. Even in a worst case scenario the Knicks still have a lot of hope. While fans and the media will anoint any Non-LeBron team a failure the truth is there are still a ton of ways the Knicks can make it work.
So lets say the Knicks can’t make any roster moves between now and next summers free agency. Here’s their commitments (rounded to the nearest million):
Eddy Curry (12), Jared Jeffries, (7) Danilo Gallinari, (3) Jordan Hill, (3) Wilson Chandler, and (2) Toney Douglas (1) =$28 Mill
Now since the Knicks only have six players under contract the NBA, under the salary cap rules, would add six placeholder players who would make the league minimum. In other words roughly $3 million worth of additional salary.
Keeping with the worst case scenario theme let’s say the NBA salary cap comes in at $50 million. With the Knicks committed to $31 million in payroll they would be $19 million under the cap.
What could the Knicks do with that money?
Offer Rudy Gay, a restricted free agent, enough money Memphis can’t afford to match it. Gay is a guy who will re-energize NY. He’s a borderline all-star right now but will thrive in an uptempo offense. He needs to refine his defense to take his game to the next level but at only 23 and already showing signs of taking the leap.
- Of the players of the 2006 draft class only Rondo, Roy, Aldridge and Bargnani got extensions. If Memphis was prepared to pay Gay big time money wouldn’t they have offered him an extension?
- If the Knicks offered Gay the same contract Rondo got; 55 million over 5 years, starting at 9 million, would Memphis financially be able to match? Memphis already has $47 million committed to their ‘09 payroll. That number doesn’t include their three first round picks, including one that will likely be in the top 5. Let’s say those draft picks add up to $7 million. That takes the Grizzles cap number to $54 million. Paying Gay $9 million would top them off at $63 million, dangerously close to a potential luxury tax line.
- Have the Grizzles ever demonstrated that they are willing to spend money? Furthermore O.J Mayo is due to hit restricted free agency in 2012, eventually he’ll command a near max deal as well.
So now the Knicks have Gay and still have $10 million left to play with. As currently constructed NY would still lack a floor general PG who could run the Seven Seconds Or Less Offense. They could turn to free agency to fill this void.
- Ray Felton: Unrestricted free agent. Would be pricey and might never be better then a third guard on a great team.
- T.J Ford: Has a player option, at $8.5 million, if he opted out he would be looking for big bucks. Ford has the speed to run an offense but since joining Indy his assist numbers have dropped dramatically. Health is also a big question mark for the undersized Ford.
- Kyle Lowry: Restricted free agent. A tenacious defender whose great at pushing the pace on both ends. He drives to the lane like few PG’s can and has a knack for drawing fouls. His long range jumper is improving but still has a long way to go. He’s also never been asked to play starter minutes and hasn’t consistently dished out assists. Lowry might be the best fit for the Knicks but he’s a restricted free agent and he’d be hard to pry away. The Rockets love him
- Randy Foye: Also a restricted free agent. Foye seems to have fallen out of favor in Washington. He’s a bit of a tweener but for a PG he’s solid defensively. Foye has a solid range on his jumper, but is a shoot first point guard.
The Knicks best option might be to hit the trade market. Being under the cap the Knicks are the perfect match for a team looking to shed salary.
- Chicago is a team that will be looking shed salary entering the Summer Of 2010. The Bulls, blessed with Derrick Rose, have Kirk Hinrich eating up $9 million and not playing major minutes. While Hinrich doesn’t carry name value he’s a very solid jump shooter, distributor and defender. The Knicks could essentially trade nothing (cap space) for Hinrch. Hinrich is owed $17 million over the next two seasons. A reasonable short term commitment for the Knicks.
So now the Knicks have added Gay ($9 million) and Hinrich ($9 million) to their 2010 payroll. That would pretty much put them up against the cap. With their remaining money, and mid level exception, the Knicks could go bargain shopping.
- Wouldn’t Raja Bell, coming off an injury, take a 2 million dollar contract to reunite with D’Antoni in the Big Apple?
- Wouldn’t Marcus Camby take a 3 million dollar contract to come back to the Garden?
So now, having spent all the Knicks money here’s their hypothetical roster:
Starters: C: Camby, PF: Gallinari, SF: Gay, SG: Bell, PG: Hinrich.
Sixth Man: Wilson Chandler; SG/SF
Bench: Jordan Hill; PF/C, Toney Douglas; PG/SG, Jared Jefferies; SF/PF, Eddy Curry; C.
In a weak East isn’t that easily a playoff caliber team? Are you telling me that this group is worse then the Pacers (currently the 7 seed) or the Bobcats (currently the 8 seed)?
And here’s the best part. In 2011 the Knicks would have $20+ million coming off the books and primed to be major players in free agency. Maybe it isn’t as loaded as 2010 but take a look at some of the 2011 free agents.
- Tony Parker, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, Caron Butler, David West, Josh Howard, Jason Richardson, Richard Jefferson, Tayshuan Prince, John Salmons and Andrei Kirilenko.
Just because Donnie Walsh’s 2010 Plan begins with LeBron James doesn’t mean it ends with him. There are plenty of other ways to make the Knicks relevant again. Even if the sky comes falling.
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Unfortunately the Knicks wouldn’t have their mid-level exception because that is only available to teams that are over the cap.
As for 2011, the FA class will likely be headed by Melo since he has an opt out (similar to Lebron and Wade this year). Also, don’t underestimate the trade value of Jeffries and Curry’s expiring contracts next year when CP3 might be on the trade block.
Reply to Dave BamdadI hate to say it, but that lineup right there is borderline playoffs, and if I had to make a guess today, I’d say they would miss.
The Grizz offered Gay an extension of 5 yr $50 mill and he declined. I dont like the plan for 2010 cause Camby and Bell are really old but for 2011 with the money off the books, it certainly could pay off.
Apparently the Wolves have their eyes set on Gay and are going to push hard after him. Compare NY to MIN and its a no contest but Flynn, Kev Love X, and Big Al could be decent enough to sway him (doubt it).
Reply to Matt Soldano