UFC 104: Main Card Predictions

October 22, 2009, at 5:46 pm

Anthony Johnson v. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

I’m pumped for “Rumble’s” return to the ring. He’s been out since February with several different injuries and the super-athletic wrestler and kickboxer is finally getting back in the cage. His last fight was a victory of former marine Luigi Fioravanti, raising his UFC record to 4-2. The book on Johnson has always been the same. He has all the tools to be an amazing fighter, but he just needs to put it all together.

Yoshida is 2-1 in the UFC, but if you look at his wins, “War Machine” Jon Koppenhaver, and Brandon Wolff, and his loss, Josh Koscheck, and you see the difference in the caliber of fighter he’s faced. He’s a judo base, which everyone who is a returning reader knows that I hate. He’s got decent stand-up, but he’s going to be looking for a submission.

Johnson is just too athletic for Yoshida. If it goes long, then cardio will become an issue. If it doesn’t, Johnson’s explosiveness will just be too much.

Prediction: Johnson via TKO

Joe Stevenson v. Spencer Fisher

Stevenson is another one of my favorite fighters, and I have a theory about him. When he was on TUF 2, he was an all-around fighter with good wrestling that made him SOOOOOO much better than everyone else. As he won fights, he forgot about all of his wrestling training, focusing more on his standup and his BJJ. Now that he is training with Greg Jackson, you immediately saw that wrestling take centerstage. Stevenson is a ground and pound specialist when he is at his best, and he needs to remember that.

Spencer Fisher is the exact opposite. For a long time, he trained with Pat Militech and the rest of the guys in Bettendorf, Iowa. He is almost exclusively standup fighter. He loves to bang, and gets most of his notoriety from his battles with Sam Stout.

Expect the gameplan from Stevenson to look like this: Takedown. Pass Guard. Submit.

Prediction: Stevenson via submission

Gleison Tibau v. Josh Neer

This fight was so much better when Sean Sherk was involved. Originally, Sherk was going to take on Tibau. That was a fight. However, Sherk got hurt, and now we are stuck with this stinker in the middle of the card. Tibau is a BJJ specialist who is going to look to take this fight to the ground as soon as possible. He’s coming off a loss to the incredibly gifted, yet uninspiring Melvin Guillard. His total record in the UFC is 4-3.

Neer is lost in the incredibly thick wasteland of the UFC’s stacked lightweight division. He’s a muay thai fighter who has a decent ground game, but you don’t get the nickname “The Dentist” by submitting people. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, coming off a loss to a high end lightweight in Kurt Pellegrino. His best win is over low ceiling TUF winner Mac Danzig.

I like Tibau to get this fight to the ground and work his magic on Neer.

Prediction: Tibau via submission

Cain Velasquez v. Ben Rothwell

Is Cain being babied more than any other prospect in the UFC? In a time where the TUF winners are being thrown to the wolves, Cain is being fed mediocre fighters while improving his skills. Velasquez is a division one amateur wrestler, and he may have the best shot in the heavyweight division outside of Brock Lesnar. However, he has serious limitations for a heavyweight fighter. This is mainly due to the fact that he has exactly zero punching power. If he was a welterweight, that might be okay. However, most heavyweight fights don’t go the distance, and the longer they go, the more likely Cain is to get clipped.

Rothwell is part of the Affliction promotion’s dead weight that moved over the UFC. He also was involved with the IFL at one time, but really, who cares about that. He’s kind of a gatekeeper level fighter. He lost to Andrei Arlovski after Arlovski entered his career spiral. He’s had decent wins, but most of them are over guys who would later switch to light heavyweight later in their career.

Look for Velasquez to employ his annoying ground and pound and win another decision, while proving absolutely nothing to the UFC fans.

Prediction: Velasquez via unanimous decision

Lyoto Machida v. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

This is the fight where Joe Rogan is either proved a genius, or looks really dumb. When Machida defeated Rashad Evans, the famous “Welcome to the Machida Era” quote suggested that we were entering an age of dominance. Will that happen? We’ll finally find out.

Machida is an undefeated phenom. There is no doubt about that. His family has their own style of karate that emphasis defense and the use of angles in attacking. Machida has successfully combined that with standard MMA styles to make himself the sports version of Bruce Lee. He’s practically unhittable. During a championship fight against Evans, he was practically never touched. That’s amazing.

As for Rua, he was the winner of the PRIDE GP all the way back in 2005. At the time, he was widely considered the world’s best fighter. Since coming over from Japan, Rua has really disappointed. He has been unimpressive in his wins, and his losses have been terrible. Everyone has declared him back after his win over Chuck Liddell, but I have news for you. That win had nothing to do with why this fight was made. Rua is a muay thai specialist. That means that his best gameplan would be to clinch with “The Dragon” and throw knees and elbows. No one has even got inside to hit Machida, so that’s a daunting task. This fight is actually more of an experiment than a real championship fight.

Rua is just not what he once was. Machida’s will win this one and be on his way to fight Brock Lesnar after five wins.

Prediction: Machida via TKO

Want to know who will win on the undercard? Check out our Undercard Predictions!

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