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MMA

Pellegrino Out of TUF 10 Finale, Matt Veach Likely to Replace Him Against Frankie Edgar…

I have written far too many of these recently. I remember a time when UFC fights actually went off as planned. That just sounds crazy now-a-days. Here’s the latest blow to a potential co-main event fight.

New Jersey’s Kurt Pellegrino is out of his fight against fellow Jersey native Frankie Edgar at The Ultimater Fighter 10 Finale on December 5th. Once again, Ariel Helwani of AOL Fanhouse let us in on it.

UFC lightweight fighter Frankie Edgar tweeted on Friday that his Dec. 5 fight against Kurt Pellegrino has been scrapped.

FanHouse has learned from sources close to the bout that “Batman” has three herniated discs in his back. Pellegrino, who is coming off an impressive unanimous decision victory against Josh Neer at UFC 101, has been ordered by his doctor to rest for at least three weeks.

Edgar is still expected to compete on The Ultimate Fighter Finale show. FanHouse has also learned that Matt Veach, who was scheduled to fight Mark Bocek on the undercard of the event, is currently the leading candidate to replace Pellegrino against Edgar, however, new bout agreements have not been issued or signed just yet.

This fight suddenly isn’t nearly as exciting. Veach is 11-0, but hasn’t faced any kind of real competition. Edgar, is on the edge of getting a title shot. There isn’t any real upside for Edgar here, because if he wins this fight, then he did his job. If he doesn’t he just upset by a guy who’s biggest win in over Matt Grice.

MMA

The Hits Keep Coming For The UFC: Alves Out of 107

This is getting ridiculous. If there was ever a time to feel bad for Dana White, it’s got to be right now. He’s losing main event quality fights left and right. Now, Thiago Alves is out of his UFC 107 fight against Jon Fitch with an injured knee. AOL Fanhouse’s Ariel Hewlani broke it.

A knee injury has forced welterweight Thiago Alves to pull out of his scheduled bout against Jon Fitch at UFC 107. FanHouse learned of the news Friday morning.

The Alves-Fitch fight was put together late last week after Fitch’s opponent at UFC 106, Ricardo Almeida, pulled out due to a knee injury as well. Alves was originally scheduled to fight Paulo Thiago at UFC 107, but once Fitch was left without an opponent, the UFC booked the rematch. No word just yet on who, if anyone, Fitch will be facing on the Dec. 12 show in Memphis, TN.

Alves suffered a torn posterior cruciate ligament while training. According to Alves’ manager Dan Lambert, Alves will be out 3-to-4 weeks, and will be ready to fight on any show after Jan. 1. Lambert mentioned that Alves was ready and willing to keep the fight despite the injury, but his management team at American Top Team in Florida felt that it was in his best interest to sit this one out.

So, now Fitch is without an opponent. Looking at the welterweight roster, I’m not really sure that there is anyone of any quality to take Alves spot. Most are locked into fights or recovering from bouts.

Dana and Joe Silva are going to have to work to get this one ready.

NHL

On Face(off) Value

When you’re a fan of a losing team, you generally don’t watch them expecting to win. Instead, you watch hoping you’ll see something amazing. For example, even though the Mets were out of playoff contention in July, I still watched them most nights, just in case they finally pitched a no-hitter (yeah, I know) or did something particularly special. In hockey, there are no milestones that would compare to a no-hitter, so I hope for very memorable games, the kind that transcend a losing season. Last year, beating Detroit and Chicago on the road were such games, and Opening Night would have been such a game had the Islanders pulled it out.
Wednesday night’s game against the Rangers would certainly qualify as what I’d call a memorable game. If the Islanders to produce a 2009-10 highlight video, highlights of Wednesday night would be heavily featured. The Islanders played their game, were intense throughout, and won their first regulation game by sheer will. The Islanders also won because of a growing trend in their play – their success in the faceoff circle.
Over the summer, I read Moneyball by Michael Lewis. Moneyball, for those who don’t know, explains how the small-market Oakland A’s of Major League Baseball were able to stay competitive with teams like the Yankees by building their team around undervalued assets like walks and on-base percentage. As I read Moneyball, I tried to figure out what statistics in hockey could be the basis for a winning team in today’s NHL. One of these days, I’ll post my thoughts. For now, though, perhaps the most important stat I’d build around would be faceoff percentage.
Think about it. There are approximately 60 faceoffs in a game. The average team, of course, wins 50 percent of those faceoffs, meaning that they begin play with the puck 30 times a game. A team that wins 60 percent of their faceoffs, on the other hand, begins with the puck 36 times. That’s twelve times more than their opponent. So, not only do you have the edge twelve more times than your opponent, that’s twelve times that your opponent can’t score until you give up the puck.
As of right now, the Islanders sit at third in the NHL with a success rate of 54.1% in the faceoff circle, with the Isles dominating faceoffs in their past few games. And while this success hasn’t resulted in wins just yet, there’s plenty of reason for optimism – aside from the Islanders (.409), Minnesota (.250) and Nashville (.458), every team over 50% in faceoffs has earned more than half of the points it could have possibly earned so far this season. What’s particularly telling about the Islanders’ success is that it’s been widespread. Every eligible Islander is over 50% in faceoffs this year, including John Tavares at 50.3%, Josh Bailey at 53.9%, and both Doug Weight and Nate Thompson at 58.8%.
What does all of this mean? Simply put, if the Islanders are better than their opponents at controlling the puck off the draw, they’re that much more likely to control play and potentially generate good scoring chances. In addition, their opponents will have to make more plays on defense than usual in order to get the puck. And if the Islanders can get past their third period hiccups – as they did on Wednesday night – their faceoff skills can help them become a truly dangerous team.
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