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NHL

The Difference in Games…

Not too much to say about tonight’s game that you won’t read elsewhere since I recorded the game since I was out and watched it quickly.

However, notice the difference in the two games between the Rangers and Devils this year, most notably in penalties and power plays.

Arguably, the two teams played basically the same in both games. Sure, maybe the Rangers weren’t as good tonight, but they both played the same style – fast-paced, slightly gritty, kind of dirty.

Yet, on Monday, October 5, 18 penalties were called in 3 periods. That does include some co-incidental minors that didn’t result in a power play (an Ales Kotalik hooking call with a Nicklas Bergfors diving penalty; Aaron Voros and David Clarkson both for roughing in the 3rd), but there were no fights. All 18 penalties were two-minute minors. Each team had 6 power play opportunities.

On Thursday, October 22, 6 penalties were called. Two were from the same fight, and there were only 4 two-minute minors called, and one of them was with 24 seconds left.

What was the difference, you ask? Was it John Tortorella showing the Rangers videos of their penalties so they don’t repeat the same mistake? Possibly, but how to account for the Devils only taking 3 minors as opposed to 9? I think there was another factor in play.

Dare I say it? The difference is the network that the games were played on. The first game (10/5) was on Versus, where they want to bring in new viewers. What do “fringe fans” want? By fringe fans, I mean, say, people who normally don’t watch hockey but turn it on from time to time; or people who have no rooting interest in one of the teams playing but are watching anyway; or people at a bar watching it because it’s on. Fringe fans want to see goals. More penalties = more power plays = more goals and exciting chances.

If Calgary is playing Columbus, I have no reason to watch a 1-0 game since I’m a Ranger fan and have no rooting interest in it. But if it’s 6-5, 4-3, or even 6-5, I’ll watch because it looks like an exciting game. Same for people who don’t ever really watch hockey – they won’t watch a 2-0 Devils shutout but they’ll watch a 3-2 Rangers win with back-and-forth action and breath-taking saves by both goalies.

Now, tonight’s game (or technically, last night’s game) was on MSG or MSG+. Odds are, if you’re tuning in to a Rangers/Devils game on MSG instead of the Yankee playoff game where they have a chance to win the pennant, you’re a big fan and will watch the game no matter what. If it’s 5-on-5 play the whole game, I’m still watching.

I constantly say how much I dislike the games on Versus, not only for their annoying broadcasts (although last year was much worse than this year) but for the facts that the referees constantly blow the whistle for phantom calls and bogus penalties.

If you don’t believe me, keep an eye out during the next Rangers game on Versus. That game is November 17 at MSG against Washington. Think the NHL doesn’t want Poster Boy Alex Ovechkin, Nik Backstrom, Mike Green, and Alex Semin to score 8 power play goals that night? That game might break the record for two-minute minors.

MMA

UFC 104: Main Card Predictions

Anthony Johnson v. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

I’m pumped for “Rumble’s” return to the ring. He’s been out since February with several different injuries and the super-athletic wrestler and kickboxer is finally getting back in the cage. His last fight was a victory of former marine Luigi Fioravanti, raising his UFC record to 4-2. The book on Johnson has always been the same. He has all the tools to be an amazing fighter, but he just needs to put it all together.

Yoshida is 2-1 in the UFC, but if you look at his wins, “War Machine” Jon Koppenhaver, and Brandon Wolff, and his loss, Josh Koscheck, and you see the difference in the caliber of fighter he’s faced. He’s a judo base, which everyone who is a returning reader knows that I hate. He’s got decent stand-up, but he’s going to be looking for a submission.

Johnson is just too athletic for Yoshida. If it goes long, then cardio will become an issue. If it doesn’t, Johnson’s explosiveness will just be too much.

Prediction: Johnson via TKO

Joe Stevenson v. Spencer Fisher

Stevenson is another one of my favorite fighters, and I have a theory about him. When he was on TUF 2, he was an all-around fighter with good wrestling that made him SOOOOOO much better than everyone else. As he won fights, he forgot about all of his wrestling training, focusing more on his standup and his BJJ. Now that he is training with Greg Jackson, you immediately saw that wrestling take centerstage. Stevenson is a ground and pound specialist when he is at his best, and he needs to remember that.

Spencer Fisher is the exact opposite. For a long time, he trained with Pat Militech and the rest of the guys in Bettendorf, Iowa. He is almost exclusively standup fighter. He loves to bang, and gets most of his notoriety from his battles with Sam Stout.

Expect the gameplan from Stevenson to look like this: Takedown. Pass Guard. Submit.

Prediction: Stevenson via submission

Gleison Tibau v. Josh Neer

This fight was so much better when Sean Sherk was involved. Originally, Sherk was going to take on Tibau. That was a fight. However, Sherk got hurt, and now we are stuck with this stinker in the middle of the card. Tibau is a BJJ specialist who is going to look to take this fight to the ground as soon as possible. He’s coming off a loss to the incredibly gifted, yet uninspiring Melvin Guillard. His total record in the UFC is 4-3.

Neer is lost in the incredibly thick wasteland of the UFC’s stacked lightweight division. He’s a muay thai fighter who has a decent ground game, but you don’t get the nickname “The Dentist” by submitting people. He’s 2-2 in the UFC, coming off a loss to a high end lightweight in Kurt Pellegrino. His best win is over low ceiling TUF winner Mac Danzig.

I like Tibau to get this fight to the ground and work his magic on Neer.

Prediction: Tibau via submission

Cain Velasquez v. Ben Rothwell

Is Cain being babied more than any other prospect in the UFC? In a time where the TUF winners are being thrown to the wolves, Cain is being fed mediocre fighters while improving his skills. Velasquez is a division one amateur wrestler, and he may have the best shot in the heavyweight division outside of Brock Lesnar. However, he has serious limitations for a heavyweight fighter. This is mainly due to the fact that he has exactly zero punching power. If he was a welterweight, that might be okay. However, most heavyweight fights don’t go the distance, and the longer they go, the more likely Cain is to get clipped.

Rothwell is part of the Affliction promotion’s dead weight that moved over the UFC. He also was involved with the IFL at one time, but really, who cares about that. He’s kind of a gatekeeper level fighter. He lost to Andrei Arlovski after Arlovski entered his career spiral. He’s had decent wins, but most of them are over guys who would later switch to light heavyweight later in their career.

Look for Velasquez to employ his annoying ground and pound and win another decision, while proving absolutely nothing to the UFC fans.

Prediction: Velasquez via unanimous decision

Lyoto Machida v. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

This is the fight where Joe Rogan is either proved a genius, or looks really dumb. When Machida defeated Rashad Evans, the famous “Welcome to the Machida Era” quote suggested that we were entering an age of dominance. Will that happen? We’ll finally find out.

Machida is an undefeated phenom. There is no doubt about that. His family has their own style of karate that emphasis defense and the use of angles in attacking. Machida has successfully combined that with standard MMA styles to make himself the sports version of Bruce Lee. He’s practically unhittable. During a championship fight against Evans, he was practically never touched. That’s amazing.

As for Rua, he was the winner of the PRIDE GP all the way back in 2005. At the time, he was widely considered the world’s best fighter. Since coming over from Japan, Rua has really disappointed. He has been unimpressive in his wins, and his losses have been terrible. Everyone has declared him back after his win over Chuck Liddell, but I have news for you. That win had nothing to do with why this fight was made. Rua is a muay thai specialist. That means that his best gameplan would be to clinch with “The Dragon” and throw knees and elbows. No one has even got inside to hit Machida, so that’s a daunting task. This fight is actually more of an experiment than a real championship fight.

Rua is just not what he once was. Machida’s will win this one and be on his way to fight Brock Lesnar after five wins.

Prediction: Machida via TKO

Want to know who will win on the undercard? Check out our Undercard Predictions!

Looking for UFC 104 gear? It’s all in The 3rd String Store.

MMA

UFC 104: Undercard Predictions!

Stefan Struve v. Chase Gormley

Hey, you know what the most important part of this fight is? Stefan Struve royally sucking. Listen, I’m all for giving guys with unique physical attributes more leeway than anyone else, but Struve hasn’t shown anything during his UFC career. His last fight was a win in a desperation fight against Denis Stronjic at UFC 99. Before that he was absolutely smashed by Junior Dos Santos. Struve is 6′11, but that is the only reason that he is in UFC.

As for Gormley, he’s an elite heavyweight prospect who is currently 6-0. He was supposed to to take on Ben Rothwell at Affliction: Trilogy. Then, when the promotion went under, the UFC picked up the fight and planned on putting on UFC 104 undercard. Then, when the Brock Lesnar-Shane Carwin fight was made, Rothwell was moved to take on Cain Velasquez. So, by the way of all this chaos Gormley will get an easy win.

Prediction: Gormley via TKO

Kyle Kingsbury v. Razak Al-Hassan

Kingsbury is best known for his stint on TUF 8 and being involved in the great “semen sushi” incident. He hasn’t fought since losing to Tom Lawlor at the TUF 8 Finale. I’m sure that this is a make or break fight for him. He doesn’t have many good wins, and outside of his wrestling, his entire game is mediocre.

Al-Hassan was 7-0 before losing to former marine Steve Cantwell at Fight For The Troops. After a long layoff, he is back. As for his skills, they aren’t exactly prototypical. He comes from a judo and taekwondo base, so that means that he isn’t very good. This will be an easy win for Kingsbury.

Prediction: Kingsbury via unanimous decision

Jorge Rivera v. Rob Kimmons

Rivera was on season four of TUF 4. His M.O. is that he’s good until he faces a fighter with any kind of real talent. He’s lost to Chris Leben, Terry Martin, and Martin Kampmann. The only name fighter the he has been in his UFC stint is Kendall Grove. He is solid all-around, and trains in Boston with Mark Dellagrotte at Sityodong.

Rob Kimmons is 2-1 in his UFC career with his loss coming to an underrated fighter in Dan Miller. He’s got a pretty well rounded game and trains with Xtreme Couture, but the question is just how talented is he. For once, I am going to go with the veteran rather than the young fighter.

Prediction: Rivera via submission

Yushin Okami v. Chael Sonnen

I think this may be the fight of the night, and it’s not even being shown on TV. These are two fighters who are excellent wrestlers and cases can be made for both of them.

Okami is coming back after a really long layoff. He hasn’t fought since defeating Dean Lister at UFC 92. He’s a bizarre fighter, as there aren’t that many Japanese wrestlers in MMA. He is an absolute huge 185 and many will remember when he was fight Mike Swick, Swick came back to the corner and said “he’s too strong for me.” Okami has some great wins on his record, like Lister, Jason McDonald, Evan Tanner and Alan Belcher.

Sonnen is best remembered for the contreversy revolving around his win over Paulo Filho in WEC. Sonnen was supposed to fight Filho for the title, but Filho didn’t make weight. Sonnen went on to win a non-title fight. Since coming to the UFC, he’s 1-1. He lost to Demian Maia and then defeated Dan Miller.

In this fight, I can see the wrestling canceling each other out and becoming a sloppy standup war. However, I don’t see that happening. I think that we will see a real good fight where Sonnen can win in an upset, but probably won’t. That’s why it’s called an upset.

Prediction: Okami via unanimous decision

Antoni Hardonk v. Pat Barry

Remember when everyone in the MMA world was all over Antoni Hardonk? How did that work out? Not well is the answer. Hardonk is 4-3 in the UFC, and I beleive that he would have been cut after going 1-2 if he wasn’t a heavyweight. He’s coming off a smackjob at the hands of Cheick Knogo. His all-around game is weak, but if I had to choose his best asset, I would say it’s his kickboxing.

Barry is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a loss to Tim Hague at UFC 98. Remember Tim Hague? He’s the guy that got knocked out by Todd Duffee at UFC 102. Barry is also a kickboxer, and he is trained by a legend in the sport in Ernesto Hoost. What we will get in this fight is two big, slow white guys banging. We’ll be lucky if someone scores a KO, but I don’t see it.

Prediction: Hardonk via unanimous decision

Ryan Bader v. Eric Schafer

This is the fight that will be the centerpiece of SPIKE TV’s coverage of the prelims. Bader is one of the winners of TUF 8, and may have more potential than just about any TUF winner since Michael Bisping. He’s a national championship level wrestler who trains with a great team in Arizona Combat Sports. He’s 2-0 in the UFC right now, with a decision victory over Carmelo Marrero in his last contest.

Schafer is a BJJ expert who is 3-2 in the UFC so far. He’s defeated Houston Alexander and Antonio Mendes his latest stint, but also fought in the UFC previous. After defeating Rob McDonald, he lost two in a row to Stephen Bonnar, and Michael Bisping.

There is a interesting question here, and it’s a tale as old as time. Assuming that Bader wants to take Schafer down, he’ll be stepping into the best part of Schafer’s game: his guard. Does this lead to a submission victory for Schafer? Or, does Bader chose to stand on his feet and try to test his improving boxing? I think the ground game is still a better option, but “Darth” will stay alert.

(Quick side note: While looking at 3SS sponsor, Bet.us, Jason saw that Bader was a huge favorite at -500. He’s good but is he really that good? I think not.)

Prediction: Bader via unanimous decision

You want main card predictions? We got main card predictions.

Looking for UFC 104 walk-out shirts? We got ya covered in The 3rd String Store.

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