UFC Fight Night 19 Predictions: The Main Card!

September 16, 2009, at 10:34 am

Nate Quarry v. Tim Credeur

This battle between two TUF alumni is the perfect opening for this card. Let’s be honest: neither of these guys is ever going to make a run at the crown that Anderson Silva currently has a vice-like grip on. However, it should be interesting to watch these two get in the ring and mix it up.

Quarry is famous for being knocked out by Rich Franklin in astonishing fashion in the only title shot he’d likely ever get. Since then he’s 3-1 with the only loss coming to the previously undefeated Demian Maia. The problem is that none of the wins are all that impressive eithier: Pete “Drago” Sell, Jason McDonald, and Kalib Starnes. He’s likely try to keep this fight on the feet and out box Credeur. If he can, this fight won’t go three rounds, and might end in devastating fashion.

Credeur is famous for spouting off some words about being a warrior or a samurai or something on season seven of TUF. Oh, and for buying the youthful Matt Riddle a Xbox 360 with his five grand bonus. Since the show, Credeur is 3-0 including his last win coming over personal favorite Nick Catone. If Credeur does win, you could say that he’s earned a little bit better competition, but he shouldn’t move up the ladder too far. In this fight, he has the advantage on the ground with eight submission wins to his credit. If the fight goes to the ground, it won’t go three rounds, and Credeur will walk away victorious.

Prediction: Credeur via Submission

Carlos Condit v. Jake Ellenberger

Ugh. This fight could have been so awesome. It was supposed to be Condit taking on the perpetually crazy/blue collar Chris Lytle, but Lytle got hurt and had to pull out. Instead, we get Ellenberger who is no slouch, but stylistically this fight isn’t as fun as it once was.

Condit is a former WEC phenom who was pulled over when Zuffa and the UFC took over the west coast based promotion. His first UFC fight was a split decision loss against Martin Kampmann who was supposed to fight Mike Swick for the Welterweight #1 contendership on Saturday at UFC 103. Condit is an unbeleiveable striker with a ton of potential, but we are all waiting for him to take his game to next level.

Ellenberger is going to be making his UFC debut, so expect the UFC jitters to be in full effect. He does have some big time experience having fought in Bellator as well as in the IFL. He’s a wrestler from Team Quest, so expect him to try and take Condit down. Instead of getting to see a striking war, we’ll all get a chance to check out Condit’s takedown defense which is an important facet of the game if you want to be a striker in the UFC.

Prediction: Condit via TKO

Gray Maynard v. Roger Huerta

I say this all the time, but how good is the UFC’s lightweight division? Here is a fight between two top-7 contenders, and it’s the headlining fight of a Fight Night because there are so many other guys to put on pay-per-view.

Gray Maynard may be the one of the best pound for pound wrestlers in MMA. He has developed a pretty fantastic wrestling base that is designed for use in the octagon rather than on the wrestling mat. Since appearing on TUF 5, he has extended his record to 7-0 with wins over Frankie Edgar, Rich Clementi and Jim Miller. If Maynard wins this fight, we can throw him in with the top-5 of the lightweights.

Huerta is a head case. We know this. This is his last UFC fight before he leaves the game to become an actor. He became famous when he and Leonard Garcia had a war that led to them getting on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Since then, he has been he has raised his record to 7-1 in the UFC, but lost his last fight to Kenny Florian, and almost lost to Clay Guida before that. Huerta has some wrestling, but is mostly a striker. I’m not sure that his takedown defense is good enough to keep him off his back, and thats why I’m taking Maynard.

Prediction: Maynard via Unanimous Decision

Nate Diaz v. Melvin Guillard

Ah, the Diaz Brothers. Everything about them recently seems to be a joke. Whether it be Nick Diaz’s pot saga, or Nate Diaz’s terrible performance against Joe Stevenson at the TUF 9 Finale, nothing seems to be going right for them. Things aren’t going to get easier tonight for Nate as the Cesar Gracie black belt takes on Melvin Guillard.

We all know what we get with Nate Diaz. He has world class jiu-jitsu. He has awful boxing, and awful wrestling. He’s going to attempt a standing kimura at least four times during this fight. Diaz drives me crazy because I love BJJ, but at a certain point you have to know that if you don’t know how to round out your game, you are going to lose. Diaz also missed weight yesterday and had to take a second chance at it to make 155 lbs.

Guillard is a much more well rounded fighter. He’s a freak athlete which is his real strength as well as a strong wrestler. His game is well balanced enough that he has a bunch of wins by both submission and by knockout. The big question with Guillard has been the mental game. Can he prevent himself from getting in his own way? He already has a cocaine arrest on his record and has shown up out of shape before. He looks to be in good shape, so let’s hope that he’s got all that behind.

Expect Guillard to taking Diaz down, and then ground and pound his way to a victory.

Prediction: Guillard via Unanimous Decision

More Ultimate Fighter/Fight Night Coverage:

- UFC Fight Night 19 Predictions: The Undercard!

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