September 24, 2009, at 9:59 pm
Generally speaking, most hockey pundits follow the same formula when it comes to doing season previews. Usually, they give you a bunch of crap you don’t really care about as the season nears, then release their picks for the playoffs, the Stanley Cup and the post-season awards on the day of the first game. Of course, they don’t do this for your benefit. They do it because that’s the day everyone else puts out their predictions.
See, the earlier someone releases his or her predictions, the more that person or publication gets scrutinized and bashed, and nobody really wants that. Because in the end, predictions are just more mindless blather from people who don’t really know anything. They’re entertainment at best, and the sooner you forget about them, the happier major publications are. When ESPN did its NFL predictions, 75 percent of their “experts” had the same exact playoff teams in the AFC, five of which made the playoffs last year, and that’s in a sport where at least three teams from each conference come from out of nowhere to make the playoffs. So you can only imagine what they, and everyone else, have in store for us on October 1.
Personally, I’d love to blend in with the rest of the opining masses and put out my picks with everyone else. Unfortunately, I can’t do that. My wife is due to give birth on October 10 and I sort of need to be ready for that, so I can’t just submit my picks at the last minute. Besides, I genuinely enjoy making predictions, even if they’re horribly wrong. Remember, I’m the same person who had Barry Melrose winning the Adams last year.
See, the earlier someone releases his or her predictions, the more that person or publication gets scrutinized and bashed, and nobody really wants that. Because in the end, predictions are just more mindless blather from people who don’t really know anything. They’re entertainment at best, and the sooner you forget about them, the happier major publications are. When ESPN did its NFL predictions, 75 percent of their “experts” had the same exact playoff teams in the AFC, five of which made the playoffs last year, and that’s in a sport where at least three teams from each conference come from out of nowhere to make the playoffs. So you can only imagine what they, and everyone else, have in store for us on October 1.
Personally, I’d love to blend in with the rest of the opining masses and put out my picks with everyone else. Unfortunately, I can’t do that. My wife is due to give birth on October 10 and I sort of need to be ready for that, so I can’t just submit my picks at the last minute. Besides, I genuinely enjoy making predictions, even if they’re horribly wrong. Remember, I’m the same person who had Barry Melrose winning the Adams last year.
Last year, I stumbled onto what I thought was a winning formula. I took last year’s standings and simply figured out who would be better or worse than they were a year ago. This year, I’m taking it one step further by giving point totals for how much better or worse I think each team will be. While these revised point totals are not meant to be taken very literally, they’re a decent guide for how much teams have improved (or gotten worse) without worrying about playoff positioning.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston (116): Same. The Bruins’ loss to Carolina in Game 7 will end up being a blessing in disguise. The pain of defeat will help the Bruins to maintain their focus throughout this season.
2) Washington (108): +5. Not unlike the Bruins, the Capitals have plenty to prove. The Southeast division crown is a given, but the Caps should really be aiming for the President’s Trophy.
3) New Jersey (106): Same. Every year, everyone writes the Devils off. Every year, the Devils make the playoffs. Until they falter, I have no reason to doubt they’ll be great once again.
4) Pittsburgh (99): +6. The Penguins played like crap until it mattered last year, then proceeded to win the Cup. They might have a bit of a Cup hangover, but they should still hit 100 points.
5) Philadelphia (99): -4. Yes, the Flyers have Chris Pronger. No, they do not have a reliable goaltender for the playoffs. AGAIN.
6) Carolina (97): -10. Carolina went on an insane run to get into last year’s playoffs and had a tremendous run once they got in. I can’t see them doing it again, though.
7) NY Rangers (95): Same. Many are picking an off year for the Rangers, which can only mean that they will be very good. At any rate, it’s hard to say this Rangers team is worse than it was a year ago. Even if they are, Henrik Lundqvist will keep them afloat.
Montreal (93): +4. Last year was a disaster. I blame the hoopla over the Habs’ 100th anniversary. They should be improved, if only because there will be slightly less chaos surrounding the Canadiens.9) Florida (93): -6. Last year was their chance. They just barely missed it. Now they have to work on getting Florida to care about hockey again, only they have to do it without Jay Bouwmeester. Good luck with that.
10) Buffalo (91): Same. It’s hard to get excited about a team that considers giving Tim Connolly a lucrative extension a step in the right direction. They seem destined to be a bubble team for the forseeable future.
11) Ottawa (83): +10. The Senators will surely improve now that the Dany Heatley fiasco is over. Besides, they’re not that bad. Lastly, for all Heatley did to villify Cory Clouston, the Sens managed 42 points in the 34 games Clouston coached. That’s a 101-point pace.
12) Toronto (81): +5. This might come as a shock to Maple Leafs fans, but Mike Komisarek and his two goals in 2008-09 are not the answer. Nor is Colton Orr’s 4-year contract or any of the other moves Brian Burke made in the name of toughness.
13) Atlanta (76): Same. The Thrashers will try to make something happen this year, if only because it’s their only shot at getting Ilya Kovalchuk to re-sign. Look for him to be dumped at the trade deadline for about 70 cents on the dollar.
14) Tampa Bay (66): +9. It’s hard to have a worse season than the Lightning did last year. They should be much improved this year now that Steven Stamkos knows the NHL. Matt Lashoff and Victor Hedman should significantly improve the Lightning’s defense.
15) NY Islanders (61): +16. The Isles make the biggest jump for a number of reasons. They have actual NHL goalies, they can’t possibly have as many injuries as they had last year, and their young players will improve.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) San Jose (117): -5. Does San Jose finally understand that the regular season is merely a dress rehearsal for what’s really important? Probably not. But 117 points is a lot of points. I don’t see them getting quite that many.
2) Detroit (112): -14. Detroit takes a big step back in terms of points, but they’ll still be a factor in the playoffs. They’ve got too tough of a division to put up 112 points again.
3) Vancouver (100): -4. Now that the Canucks have tied up their future in the Sedin twins, they have a long future ahead of being above-average, but never truly great. Did you know that their sweep of the Blues in April was their first sweep in franchise history? Wow.
4) Chicago (104): +4. Chicago finishes the job after a dream season last year. There’s a chance the team has a bout of complacency during the season, but they should be able to win the Central.
5) Calgary (98): -6. Calgary over-achieved last year. Brent Sutter is an upgrade behind the bench over Mike Keenan, but that doesn’t change the fact that Miikaa Kiprusoff is the most overrated player in the NHL.
6) St. Louis (92): Same. It was tempting to give the Blues a significant bump in points, but they won’t sneak up on anyone this year. That said, they’ll be even better than they were last year, so at worst these two factors will cancel each other out.
7) Columbus (92): +3. The Blue Jackets are for real. They held their own last year in a very tough division. They’ll only improve with a full season from Derick Brassard.
Anaheim (91) +9: The Ducks proved how much the regular season means when they whooped San jose in the first round last year. This year, they should be a lot more focused. They won’t be stuck with the eighth seed next April.9) Minnesota (89): -5. Everyone’s all excited that the Wild isn’t going to be playing the trap anymore. However, the change from all-defense to all-offense isn’t going to happen overnight. This looks to be a transitional year for the Wild.
10) Nashville (88): Same. I keep waiting for the year where Nashville puts it all together. Still waiting. Will still be waiting after this year. The Predators’ big acquisition this off-season was Francis Bouillon. Poor Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne.
11) Edmonton (85): +10. Last year, I predicted an off year for Edmonton because they wouldn’t pick up a ton of points in shootouts two years in a row. This year, though, the young players are ready to put it all together.
12) Dallas (83): +7. Dallas improved significantly last year after dumping Sean Avery. Problem is, a lot of other teams improved too. I’ll take up-and-coming young teams like LA and Edmonton over this Dallas team.
13) Phoenix (79): +9. People forget that the Coyotes were as high as fifth in the West last January before totally crapping out in the second half. The drama with the team’s move may actually serve to bring the team together. And you can’t deny their young talent, which might be the best group of prospects in the NHL.
14) Los Angeles (79): +11. Speaking of enviable pools of talent, the Kings should be a team to watch now that they have a legitimate franchise goalie in Jonathan Quick. They might not be a playoff team, but they’ll be close.
15) Colorado (69): Same. The rebuild begins in Colorado without Joe Sakic. It’s not going to be pretty.
****
So, if we do the math, here’s how my vision of the NHL shakes out for 2009-10…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston (116)
2) Washington (111)
3) New Jersey (106)
4) Pittsburgh (105)
5) Montreal (97)
6) NY Rangers (95)
7) Philadelphia (95)
Ottawa (93)9) Buffalo (91)
10) Carolina (87)
11) Florida (87)
12) Toronto (86)
13) NY Islanders (77)
14) Atlanta (76)
15) Tampa Bay (75)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) San Jose (112)
2) Chicago (108)
3) Vancouver (96)
4) Anaheim (100)
5) Detroit (98)
6) Columbus (95)
7) Edmonton (95)
St. Louis (92)9) Calgary (92)
10) Los Angeles (90)
11) Dallas (90)
12) Phoenix (88)
13) Nashville (88)
14) Minnesota (84)
15) Colorado (69)
PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Boston def. (8) Ottawa 4-2
(2) Washington def. (7) Philadelphia 4-0
(6) NY Rangers def. (3) New Jersey 4-3
(4) Pittsburgh def. (5) Montreal 4-1
(1) Boston def. (6) NY Rangers 4-2
(2) Washington def. (4) Pittsburgh 4-3
(2) Washington def. (1) Boston 4-1
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) San Jose def. (8) St. Louis 4-3
(2) Chicago def. (7) Edmonton 4-0
(6) Columbus def. (3) Vancouver 4-2
(5) Detroit def. (4) Anaheim 4-3
(1) San Jose def. (6) Columbus 4-3
(2) Chicago def. (5) Detroit 4-1
(2) Chicago def. (1) San Jose 4-2
STANLEY CUP FINAL
(2) Washington def. (2) Chicago 4-2
INDIVIDUAL AWARDS
Hart Trophy: Zach Parise, New Jersey
Art Ross Trophy: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh
Richard Trophy: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington
Vezina Trophy: Henrik Lundqvist, NY Rangers
Norris Trophy: Dan Boyle, San Jose
Calder Trophy: Nikita Filatov, Columbus
Adams Trophy: Dave Tippett, Phoenix
Selke Trophy: Mike Richards, Philadelphia
Conn Smythe Trophy: Alexander Semin, Washington
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