For the next few weeks our very own Jordan Lauterbach will be previewing the upcoming 2009 College Football season. Each day, he will be posting a new preview so be sure to check in everyday.
Last Season- 7-6, beat Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl
AP and Coaches Poll: 23
The goal in South Bend is clear. The goal for head coach Charlie Weis may be even clearer.
BCS bowl or bust.
After two consecutive years of downright embarrassing football played under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus, 2009 may be one of the most important seasons in the history of the program. While 2008 may not have been quite as bad as the 3-9 campaign of a year earlier, it sure felt like it towards the end of the regular season.
Yes, the Irish beat Navy- but they lost to Syracuse. Yes, they were 5-2 at the beginning of November- but they were 6-6 at the end of it. A bad overtime loss to Pittsburgh started what was an almost comical final month. That final month almost got Charlie Weis fired.
I think he would have been canned if not for a Christmas Eve thrashing of Hawaii that gave Notre Dame its first bowl victory in what seemed like a thousand years. But that game was only the beginning of what should be a remarkable comeback story for the Irish.
Think about it. How impressive would it be for a program to finish a season with three victories and find itself in a BCS game two years later? Almost unthinkable right?
But that is precisely what Charlie Weis must do to keep his job.
And he has the talent to do so.
It starts at the quarterback position. The excuses are gone for Jimmy Clausen. The quarterback who came to South Bend with such high expectations has been a bust in his first two seasons. But I give him a pass for a lot of what happened in 2007.
The quarterback situation was horribly mismanaged that season. The star recruit was placed behind an awful offense line and paid for it. Because of this, his 2008 wasn’t as good as it could have been. Clausen made a lot of bad decisions that led to seventeen interceptions. Say what you will about Clausen in ’08, but he single handily lost games because of poor decision making and interceptions at the worst possible times.
But despite some mind-blowing mistakes, Clausen showed what made him such a valuable asset coming out of high school. In the Hawaii bowl, he threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns. The touchdown total matched what he had accumulated in the last five games of the season combined. If the Hawaii bowl is any indication, Clausen should be one of the more improved quarterbacks in the nation this season.
Jimmy Clausen isn’t the only player that makes this passing game dangerous. Receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are a big play threat on almost every down. Tate caught 58 passes for 1080 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. He was on the receiving end of three of Clausen’s five touchdowns against Hawaii and averaged nearly twenty yards per reception last season.
Michael Floyd had some injury issues late in the year, but still grabbed seven touchdown passes. He is expected to be fully healthy and possibly even better in his sophomore season. The combo of Floyd and Tate will make Notre Dame air attack hard to contain.
The biggest questions offensively are at running back. The Irish ranked 100th in the nation in rushing last season. Armando Allen, the teams leading rusher, ran for only 535 yards and three touchdowns. Robert Hughes followed with 382 yards and four touchdowns. As good as this passing game can be, the running game must improve dramatically for the offense to reach its full potential. An offensive line that suddenly has some experience (four starters returning) should help that.
With Charlie Weis calling the plays, I expect the Irish to be aggressive down the field more than almost any other team in the nation. Expect a lot of big plays from Clausen as he morphs into the player everyone thought he was coming out of high school.
Despite the running game questions, if Notre Dame falters again it wont be because of their offense.
Defensively, Notre Dame has struggled in recent years. Even during the BCS/Brady Quinn years, the Irish won because of points on the scoreboard, not goose eggs. This season might not be all that different.
Notre Dame only has a few players with starting experience. Nose tackle Ian Williams and defensive end Kerry Neal provide experience on a defensive line that will be starting a red shirt freshman. That freshman, Kapron Lewis-Moore has tremendous upside, but has never played a snap of college ball.
The linebacking core has depth, but maybe not the right kind. In spring camp, six players were fighting for starting positions. Those six do not include highly touted recruit Manti Te’o. Te’o, while only a freshman, is expected to eventually lead the defense and may get significant time this season.
Linebacker Harrison Smith has moved back to his natural position, free safety. This should improve a secondary that returns Sergio Brown, Robert Blanton, E.J Banks, Raeshon McNeil, and Darrin Walls. Walls missed all of 2008 for “personal reasons”.
What makes Notre Dame’s outlook more favorable this year than it has been in years past is the schedule. The Irish are famous for having a schedule that makes it almost impossible to compete on a national level. While many national powerhouses schedule a few powder puff games to pad the record, Notre Dame has been stuck playing a marquee matchup almost every week. This is not the case this year.
A few weeks ago, Lou Holtz was chastised for predicting Notre Dame would make the national championship game. While I ultimately disagree with the end result, I don’t think the logic is at all absurd or misguided. I see a maximum of two losses on the schedule. The toughest game, USC, comes at home. They visit programs that are either in a “rebuilding mode” or just not very good.
This makes the goal even clearer.
I think that a two loss Notre Dame team gets a BCS bid. There is no excuse for a three loss season, given the schedule. Rarely is the measure of success so cut and dry in August. But for Charlie Weis, it couldn’t be any more obvious.
Find yourself in a BCS game or go find a new job.
3 Games To Watch
September 19th- Michigan State- The first of two potential losses that I see on the schedule. A good defense, led by Greg Jones, frustrated Jimmy Clausen and the Notre Dame offense in last year’s matchup. This could be a low scoring slugfest. The kind of game that I don’t think Notre Dame would win early in the year.
October 17th- USC- Remember the Bush push game? I’m sure you do. This one could have all the hype of that game if both teams come in undefeated (which is a strong possibility). The Trojans have won the last seven matchups, most by knockout. While I’m already on record saying that Notre Dame finally beats USC this year, who would be surprised if the Irish fell for an eighth straight time?
November 14th- @Pittsburgh- A game with late season trap potential. Pittsburgh fought back from a second half deficit in last year’s matchup in South Bend and could need this one for a Big East Title shot.
September 2, 2009, at 11:57 pm
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