August 3, 2009, at 6:51 pm
I’ve written several times on this site that I feel that MLB teams have begun to value their prospects too much. The MLB is a copycat league, just like every other sport, and when the A’s, Rays, Marlins and Twins started having consistent success by building from within everyone followed suit. Now that’s not to say the big market teams don’t spend, because they do, but it means there much more likely to spend in free agency then in a trade. However, it’s important to remember what the word prospect means and Edinson Volquez should serve as a cautionary tale.
Volquez was traded for Josh Hamilton. At the time it looked like a win-win for both teams. Hamilton went on to become an All-Star and became the face of the Texas Rangers. Volquez was Cy-Young worthy last year and seemed to be headed for a great career. That was of course until injury struck.
According to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the ulnar collateral ligament in Edinson Volquez’s right elbow was almost completely torn. Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery on Monday morning. There is a chance that he could return late in 2010, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect him to return to form until 2011 at the earliest.
A pitching prospect is like a lotto ticket. Sometimes you can cash it in for Tim Lincecum and sometimes it becomes Todd Van Poppel. The point is when your trading for an 18 year old star in the making might seem like a good idea at the time there is a ton of projection involved no matter how dominant the kid has been. Unlike a positional player a pitcher is just one major injury away from his career being over potentially. Not everyone bounces back from Tommy John surgery, cough Liriano cough, although the surgery has a high success rate.
I think all GM’s need to wake up. Prospects are very very important but when you have the chance to get Cliff Lee for 75 cents on the dollar you have to.
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