August 27, 2009, at 10:49 am
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The St. Louis Rams have a quarterback who has been to the Pro Bowl in Marc Bulger, not to mention one of the most talented running backs in the NFL in Steven Jackson. Yet they have a 5-27 straight-up record over the last two years (11-21 ATS), which demonstrates the importance of strength on the interior line.
This season it’s a new regime and a new offensive system, but Jackson is still the cornerstone. Will it work for them?
First, let’s take a look at the numbers:
BetUS online sports gambling Odds
To Win NFC West
Arizona Cardinals +140
San Francisco 49ers +225
Seattle Seahawks +210
ST LOUIS RAMS +1100
To Win Super Bowl: +12500
To Win NFC title: +5000
To Reach Conference title game: +2500
Over 5.5 wins -150
Under 5.5 wins +120
The Rams have pretty much become a disaster area. I don’t even want to show you what I wrote about them last season, but in summary, I felt that if a couple of things fell into place, they might be able to contend for a wild card spot. That obviously didn’t happen.
What they did instead was finish 2-14 (6-10 ATS), fire coach Scott Linehan, who didn’t have any answers, and hire former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who will probably place an extra burden on the Rams’ best player.
Of course, that is Steven Jackson, who ran for 1043 yards and caught 40 passes last year, which would be impressive for some running backs but a far cry from his 2334 combined rushing/receiving yards in 2006. The new Rams’ staff hopes that he can get closer to those numbers; in fact, they’re counting on it.
The plan is to install a West Coast offense, which will accentuate Jackson’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and spread the defense out so as to open up running lanes for him to exploit. What new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s system will also do is afford Marc Bulger the opportunity to get rid of the ball faster. Bulger is a very capable quarterback, truth be told; his best year was in 2006, when he had 24 TD’s, just nine INT’s and 4301 yards. He has just been massacred with the offensive line he’s been given, suffering 124 sacks over the last three seasons. That takes its toll. Jason Smith of Baylor was taken #2 overall in the draft, and he will be Bulger’s right tackle, while Alex Barron goes to the left side, replacing Orlando Pace.
What happens if and when Jackson gets hurt (he’s missed four games each of the last two years) is a question. The Rams have Antonio Pittman in reserve. Oh well. At least there is a pretty good blocking back in newly-acquired Mike Karney.
The receivers have promise. Donnie Avery (53 catches last year) will get better in his second season, as will Keenan Burton, who was drafted two rounds after Avery and got limited touches last year. Laurent Robinson, who had 437 yards for Atlanta in 2007 but was pretty much frozen out by Mike Smith last year, gets a chance to be a starter, as does Ronald Curry, formerly a member of Oakland’s rotation. Randy McMichael adds a veteran presence at tight end, and may finally be used the way he is supposed to in this West Coast offense, but the Rams are going to be looking for people to develop quickly.
This defense needed a makeover. St. Louis finished 28th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed, and gave up 81 more first downs than they attained.
Defense is Spagnuolo’s thing, and he has selected Ken Flajole, the former linebacker coach for Carolina, as his new coordinator. These guys like to get out after the passer. Were they reasonably impressed with Chris Long, who they spent a #2 overall draft pick on, but produced only 40 tackles and four sacks? I don’t know, but if he doesn’t step things up considerably, St. Louis may be looking more and more to James Hall, his backup, for a pass rush. There is some upside at the defensive tackle position with Clifton Ryan and Adam Carriker both entering their third season and ready to make a move.
Rookie James Laurenaitis of Ohio State, who slipped into the second round of the draft and may have trouble adjusting to the NFL, is probably going to be handed the middle linebacker job, which sends Will Witherspoon back to an outside linebacker spot. Last year’s leading tackler, Pisa Tinoisamoa, was released.
The Rams’ secondary gave up 8.3 yards per passing attempt, second worst in the NFL to the winless Lions. Spagnuolo reached out and got safety James Butler, who worked under him with the Giants. Cornerbacks Tye Hill and Jonathan Wade are not sparkling in coverage, although Ronald Bartell can be a fixture in this defensive backfield. The standout here is Oshiomogho Atogwe, who had 77 solo tackles and five interceptions from his free safety position last season. A pass rush would help this unit.
This won’t be an easy job for Spagnuolo and his staff. It’s a rebuilding job for sure, and there exists some doubt that there are enough good players on defense, or enough strength on the offensive line, to help things come together. Bulger’s performance should improve, but he’s got receivers to break in. For a team that has won five games over the last two seasons, incremental gains are the most reasonable things to expect. It’s not an overnight thing, and if I can get +120 in the BetUS NFL odds for a win total under 5.5, I’ll take it.
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