When Did Kyle Drabek Become Sandy Koufax?

July 24, 2009, at 6:44 pm

Am I missing something here? Why is Kyle Drabek an “untouchable prospect.” Don’t get me wrong I believe you build a successful baseball team from within. But I also believe that in recent years teams have become too overprotective of their prospects. Last year the Yankees were hesitant to trade Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain (with good reason) but also were hard pressed to give up Alan Horne and Ian Kennedy. Where are those guys now? Kennedy and Horne probably wouldn’t crack the list of top 20 Yankee prospects right now. Especially with pitchers so much can happen between now and the majors. Putting a lot of stock into a pitching prospect is akin to buying a lotto ticket. No matter how good they are.

This brings me back to my original point. When did Kyle Drabek become the second coming? Don’t get me wrong Drabek is a very good pitching prospect but he’s not an elite prospect. Chris Tillman, Madison Bumgarner and Brian Matsuz is where I would begin and end the “untouchable” pitching prospect list. These guys all have the raw stuff of ace strikeout pitchers and the stats to back it up. Drabek falls somewhere in the next group of pitching prospects with Jarrod Parker, Neftali Feliz and Wade Davis. Even then I’m not sure he’s any better than any of those guys.

The truth is Drabek is a 22 year old right hander who Kevin Goldstein says in an ideal world is a “right handed Scott Kazmir.” However on the negative side he’s small (6 foot) and has already had Tommy John surgery. His numbers at AA are very good but not overwhelming. 3.12 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.3/1 K/BB and a 1.23 WHIP. Don’t get me wrong, solid solid numbers but compare them to the other elite prospects.

Tillman – 2.70 ERA, 10.03 K/9, 4/1 KBB, 1.15 WHIP (by the way he just turned 21 and is a AAA)

Bumgarner – 1.56 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, .99 WHIP (by the way he’s 19 and in AA)

Matusz – 1.88 ERA, 10 K/9, 5.5/1 K/BB, .87 WHIP (by the way he just turned 22 and is in AA)

Don’t get me wrong Drabek might be a great starter in this league but to pass up the opportunity to get Roy Halladay for a season and a half when you already have a team as good as the Phillies do is insane.

chipper posted the following on July 31, 2009 at 3:57 pm.

I can see your point but the PHILLIES don’t have Bumgarner, Tillman, or Matusz so your argument is slightly specious. He’s the best the Phillies have, who cares about pitchers they don’t have being better…

Reply to chipper

Jason Comack posted the following on July 31, 2009 at 5:00 pm.
Chipper,

I think you missed my point. Yes Drabek, might, be the best pitching prospect the Phillies have but that doesn’t make him an elite prospect. My whole argument was that Drabek simply wasn’t that good that he should be considered untouchable. That’s why I used the comparisons to Bumgarner, Tillman or Matsuz.

At the end of the day the Phillies made a better deal with the Indians anyway and the Blue Jays overplayed their hand with Halladay and will end up trading him for 75 cents on the dollar this off-season.
Reply to Jason Comack