Undercard
Jon Jones (8-0) v. Jake O’Brien (11-2)
For those of us who don’t come to this site regularly, I have a bit of a bromance going with Jon Jones. I think that he has as much potential as just anyone in the UFC. That being said, Jason has gone out his way to tell me that he won’t be surprised if O’Brien if gains a lay and pray victory here. Jason puts way too much value into O’Brien being the bigger man. I’ll take Jonny Bones everytime.
Prediction: Jon Jones via TKO Round 1
Mark Coleman (15-9) v. Stephan Bonnar (13-5)
This fight is literally both men’s UFC lives. For Bonnar, his goodwill for the fight with Forrest Griffin popularizing the sport is beginning to run out. He was caught taking steroids a while ago, and clearly hasn’t been the same since. He lost to Jon Jones in his last fight, and clearly has to impress to stay employed. As for Coleman, he made his comeback against Shogun Rua and was stopped in the third round at UFC 93. Coleman is a UFC Hall of Famer but he is 44 years old. He didn’t age as gracefully as Randy Couture and I look for Bonnar to pull this one out. If it goes to decision, it will be a huge win for Coleman, and it will be because of his wrestling.
Prediction: Stephan Bonnar via TKO Round 2
Mac Danzig (21-6-1) v. Jim Miller (13-2)
Danzig is fighting for his UFC life as well. The former Ultimate Fighter winner is in danger of being forgotten as he has dropped two in a row against Josh Neer and Clay Guida. Danzig never reached the ceiling that a ton of people thought he would reach after he won season 6. Miller is a strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner who is coming off a loss to Gray Maynard. This fight is a desperate attempt for Danzig to keep his job, and he’ll pull it off.
Prediction: Mac Danzig via submission Round 2
Rest of the Undercard:
Matt Grice d. Shannon Gugerty via Unanimous Decision
Dong Hyun Kim d. TJ Grant via Unanimous Decision
CB Dollaway d. Tom Lawlor via submission Round 1
Main Card:
Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1-0, 2 NC, UFC Debut) v. Alan Belcher (14-5, 5-3 UFC)
Belcher is an interesting case of how weak this middleweight division is. He is only 5-3 in the UFC, yet he is considered an intriguing prospect to eventually fight Anderson Silva. Coming off wins over “Super Korean” Denis Kang, and Ed Herman, Belcher could cement himself as a contender with a win. Akiyama is making his UFC Debut, and that never ends well for most.
Prediction: Alan Belcher via Unanimous Decision
Jon Fitch (18-3, 9-1 UFC) v. Paulo Thiago (11-0, 1-0 UFC)
Jon Fitch is awesome. He tied the record for consecutive wins in the UFC with eight before he lost to Georges St. Pierre. He came back and won a decision against Akihiro Gono. There are some questions abnout Fitch’s ability to finish, as most of his wins have come by decision. Thiago was very impressive during his UFC debut against Fitch’s American Kickboxing Academy teammate Josh Koscheck. Thiago wins most of his fights by submission, and Fitch loves to be on top. Expect Fitch to grind Thiago into submission and win a decision.
Prediction: Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision
Dan Henderson (24-7, 4-2 UFC) v. Michael Bisping (17-1, 7-1 UFC)
The battle between the two Ultimate Fighter 9 coaches might be the best of the night. Henderson is known for being the only man to simultaneously hold two PRIDE titles. He’s an olympic wrestler who has the ability to control the pace of the fight. He also has a very powerful right hand, but doesn’t have the sharpest boxing in the world. His advanced age also doesn’t bode well, he’s going against a national champion kickboxer in Bisping. If the fight stays on the feet, it’s a huge advantadge to Bisping. If Henderson takes him down and tries to grind out a decision, he’ll take it. I think that Bisping’s stick and move strategy will get him his title shot against Anderson Silva.
Prediction: Michael Bisping via TKO Round 3
UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre (18-2, 11-2 UFC) v. Thiago Alves (16-3, 9-2 UFC)
St. Pierre is my pick for the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now. His absurd wrestling and ability to instantly pass guard allows him to ground and pound his opponents into submission. As if that wasn’t enough, he also possesses solid stand-up and unbelievable cardio. Alves is a dangerous Muay Thai striker that possesses knockout power. He is a huge 170 pound fighter that can easily overwhelm most welterweights. However, the only way that I can see Alves winning this fight is standing up. St. Pierre can outwrestle Alves, ground and pound him, and submit him. GSP’s versatility is going to be too much for Alves to handle.
Prediction: Georges St.Pierre via TKO Round 3
UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar v. UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir
This may be the main event of the card, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that it will be the best fight. As much as Lesnar has improved since he and Mir met the first time, his strengths haven’t changed. He’s a huge man that can devastate people with his wrestling and lunchbox sized hands. His boxing is sloppy, and once he’s on the ground he has no idea how to pass guard or defend submissions. Mir is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has shown improved striking over his last few fights. Mir has made it clear that he intends to strike with the man-beast, and I hope that he is kidding. While it may be a scary thought, the best place for Mir to win this fight is on the ground with Lesnar in his guard. Expect another quick submission and Mir to walk away with his second UFC Heavyweight belt.
Prediction: Frank Mir via submission Round One.
Jason will bring you his prediction’s tomorrow at noon.